0xf965…ccb0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf9658c740e471db66f62ec137157d7b9756dccb0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.3pp

ROI

+51%

Win rate

63% @ 48.7¢

Brier

0.177

Resolved

409

Avg size

$15

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	57% (81/141)	+18%	141
Geopolitics	70% (19/27)	+53%	27
Culture	50% (11/22)	+24%	22
Economy	60% (9/15)	-30%	15
Other	63% (5/8)	+98%	8
Tech	29% (2/7)	-14%	7
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+567%	1

Politics141 bets
Hit rate
57% (81/141)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics27 bets
Hit rate
70% (19/27)
ROI
+53%
Culture22 bets
Hit rate
50% (11/22)
ROI
+24%
Economy15 bets
Hit rate
60% (9/15)
ROI
-30%
Other8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+98%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-14%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+567%

Track record

58% hit · 128/221

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	$1	28.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$6	96.2¢	Won
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$1.2k	22.8¢	Lost
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$10	25.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	$4	84.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	$1	10.9¢	Lost
Will SpaceX have fewer than 14 launches in October 2026?	No	$1	24.0¢	Lost
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 15%-20%?	No	$20	80.0¢	Won
Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31?	No	$6	49.0¢	Lost
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$210	40.6¢	Lost
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$9	52.0¢	Won
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 6, 2026?	Yes	$3	43.0¢	Won
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	$12	33.5¢	Lost
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	$12	67.0¢	Won
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	No	$1	33.8¢	Lost
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	Yes	$14	73.9¢	Won
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election by at least 12%?	Yes	$23	60.4¢	Won
Will Together win 8-10 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$3	7.7¢	Lost
Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$130	44.0¢	Lost
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?	Yes	$12	76.0¢	Won
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	$229	84.3¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	$7	67.6¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	$2	18.9¢	Won
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$20	88.0¢	Won
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	$12	36.0¢	Lost
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	18.1¢	Lost
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.55% in October?	Yes	$5	78.0¢	Won
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial second round by at least 25%?	Yes	$2	19.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$531	46.6¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$1	76.7¢	Lost
Will Trump not lower tariffs on any country by July 31?	Yes	$38	4.9¢	Lost
Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$6	59.0¢	Won
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?	No	$203	67.9¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by October 31?	Yes	$4	56.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	$12	87.1¢	Won
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	Yes	$6	8.5¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	$4	72.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	$1	14.8¢	Lost
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 4?	Yes	$6	64.4¢	Won
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?	No	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	No	$5	28.0¢	Lost
Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	Yes	$6	88.2¢	Won
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial second round by at least 15%?	No	$12	75.0¢	Won
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 18, 2026?	Yes	$8	72.0¢	Won
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?	Yes	$16	70.5¢	Won
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?	No	$41	81.0¢	Won

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Won
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$6 @ 96.2¢
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 22.8¢
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Won
No$4 @ 84.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.9¢
Will SpaceX have fewer than 14 launches in October 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 24.0¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 15%-20%?Won
No$20 @ 80.0¢
Will AI.gov be renamed to SI.gov by October 31?Lost
No$6 @ 49.0¢
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
No$210 @ 40.6¢
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$9 @ 52.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 6, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 43.0¢
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Lost
No$12 @ 33.5¢
Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 67.0¢
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Lost
No$1 @ 33.8¢
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Won
Yes$14 @ 73.9¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election by at least 12%?Won
Yes$23 @ 60.4¢
Will Together win 8-10 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.7¢
Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$130 @ 44.0¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 76.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Won
Yes$229 @ 84.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Lost
No$7 @ 67.6¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Won
Yes$2 @ 18.9¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 88.0¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Lost
No$12 @ 36.0¢
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 18.1¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.55% in October?Won
Yes$5 @ 78.0¢
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial second round by at least 25%?Lost
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$531 @ 46.6¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 76.7¢
Will Trump not lower tariffs on any country by July 31?Lost
Yes$38 @ 4.9¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
Yes$6 @ 59.0¢
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? Lost
No$203 @ 67.9¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by October 31?Won
Yes$4 @ 56.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 87.1¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 8.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 72.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.8¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 4?Won
Yes$6 @ 64.4¢
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 7.0¢
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 28.0¢
Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 88.2¢
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial second round by at least 15%?Won
No$12 @ 75.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 18, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 72.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?Won
Yes$16 @ 70.5¢
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?Won
No$41 @ 81.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Politics	No	$27	42.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 5, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$22	72.9¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Politics	No	$20	27.0¢
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$18	44.8¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of November 2026?	Politics	No	$17	61.0¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of November 2026?	Politics	No	$17	39.5¢
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$15	61.3¢
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027?	Crypto	No	$14	81.9¢
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?	Economy	Yes	$12	15.0¢
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$12	86.0¢
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.50% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	Economy	Yes	$12	73.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12	66.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?	Politics	No	$12	65.0¢
Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$12	36.2¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	23.0¢
Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?	Politics	Yes	$9	65.0¢
Will USD/BRL hit 7 (High) in 2026?	Other	No	$9	94.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	30.1¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$9	23.0¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8	18.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$8	10.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$8	86.5¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$8	68.0¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$8	54.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$8	29.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	No	$8	38.4¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$7	87.0¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$7	37.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30?	Culture	No	$6	51.0¢
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Politics	No	$6	78.0¢

Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?Politics
No$27 @ 42.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 5, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$22 @ 72.9¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 27.0¢
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$18 @ 44.8¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of November 2026?Politics
No$17 @ 61.0¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of November 2026?Politics
No$17 @ 39.5¢
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$15 @ 61.3¢
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027?Crypto
No$14 @ 81.9¢
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?Economy
Yes$12 @ 15.0¢
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Politics
Yes$12 @ 86.0¢
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.50% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?Economy
Yes$12 @ 73.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$12 @ 66.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?Politics
No$12 @ 65.0¢
Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$12 @ 36.2¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 23.0¢
Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?Politics
Yes$9 @ 65.0¢
Will USD/BRL hit 7 (High) in 2026?Other
No$9 @ 94.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 30.1¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$9 @ 23.0¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$8 @ 18.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 10.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?Economy
Yes$8 @ 86.5¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$8 @ 68.0¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?Tech
Yes$8 @ 54.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 29.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
No$8 @ 38.4¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 87.0¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$7 @ 37.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30?Culture
No$6 @ 51.0¢
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?Politics
No$6 @ 78.0¢