← Smart money
0xf90b…41e6
SharpEdge
+29.3pp
ROI
+55%
Win rate
95% @ 65.7¢
Brier
0.138
Resolved
40
Avg size
$214
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 60% (3/5) | +55% | 5 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +12% | 1 |
- Other5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +55%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +12%
Track record
67% hit · 4/6| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | No | $4 | 79.0¢ | Lost |
| Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? | No | $4 | 86.0¢ | Won |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | Yes | $5 | 89.0¢ | Won |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | No | $3.8k | 64.4¢ | Won |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | Yes | $3 | 55.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $4.8k | 64.4¢ | Won |
- No$4 @ 79.0¢
- No$4 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 89.0¢
- No$3.8k @ 64.4¢
- Yes$3 @ 55.0¢
- Yes$4.8k @ 64.4¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…