0xf903…e028

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf903c4cd098184e67a06a04f9b8fdb36e7bbe028
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.4pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

59% @ 41.5¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

866

Avg size

$36

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (62/148)	+21%	148
Politics	51% (19/37)	+28%	37
Culture	59% (19/32)	+28%	32
Sports	26% (6/23)	-2%	23
Tech	43% (6/14)	-34%	14
Geopolitics	80% (4/5)	+93%	5
Crypto	50% (2/4)	-30%	4
Science	100% (1/1)	+50%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+300%	1

Other148 bets
Hit rate
42% (62/148)
ROI
+21%
Politics37 bets
Hit rate
51% (19/37)
ROI
+28%
Culture32 bets
Hit rate
59% (19/32)
ROI
+28%
Sports23 bets
Hit rate
26% (6/23)
ROI
-2%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
43% (6/14)
ROI
-34%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+93%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-30%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+50%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+300%

Track record

45% hit · 120/265

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?	Yes	$2	7.8¢	Lost
GPT ads by December 31?	Yes	$5	13.0¢	Lost
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?	Yes	$360	39.8¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$116	58.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?	No	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video?	No	$281	82.6¢	Won
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video?	Yes	$227	41.5¢	Won
Will Daniel Mullen win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?	No	$59	65.1¢	Won
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?	No	$71	57.5¢	Won
Will Boaster Win the 2026 Esports Personality of the Year Award?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August?	No	$422	64.0¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$92	66.5¢	Won
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	$11	19.3¢	Won
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	$13	14.1¢	Lost
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	$15	48.3¢	Won
Will Microsoft say "CapEx" during earnings call?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Keir Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?	No	$0	15.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?	No	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio?	Yes	$3	0.4¢	Lost
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)	Weili	$6	44.0¢	Lost
Will Apple say "Apple Intelligence" during earnings call?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	No	$4	75.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (October 27 - November 2)	No	$0	3.0¢	Won
UFC 322: Hill vs. Kline (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)	Hill	$36	17.3¢	Lost
Will Jack Grealish join Tottenham?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "North Korea" during Malaysia events on October 26?	Yes	$2	17.0¢	Lost
Will Google say "Gemini" during earnings call?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	No	$56	27.5¢	Won
Will Uber say "Delivery" during earnings call?	No	$0	2.0¢	Lost
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?	Yes	$5	30.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?	Yes	$0	23.0¢	Won
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	$80	49.8¢	Won
Will Meta say "Advertising" during earnings call?	No	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$10	61.0¢	Lost
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?	No	$2	67.0¢	Won
Will anyone say "New York" or "New Yorker" 45+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?	No	$7	5.0¢	Lost
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	$27	24.9¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Bastard" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?	No	$31	11.4¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Bastard" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?	Yes	$48	77.8¢	Won
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video?	No	$564	53.7¢	Won
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	No	$111	23.0¢	Lost
GPT ads by March 31?	No	$3	64.0¢	Lost
GPT ads by March 31?	Yes	$9	17.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next video?	No	$40	32.3¢	Won
Will Anderson Silva vs. Tyron Woodley have no official winner?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$101	41.2¢	Won
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	No	$18	34.7¢	Won
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Yes	$4	12.1¢	Lost

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.8¢
GPT ads by December 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 13.0¢
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?Lost
Yes$360 @ 39.8¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$116 @ 58.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?Lost
No$0 @ 5.0¢
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video?Won
No$281 @ 82.6¢
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video?Won
Yes$227 @ 41.5¢
Will Daniel Mullen win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?Won
No$59 @ 65.1¢
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?Won
No$71 @ 57.5¢
Will Boaster Win the 2026 Esports Personality of the Year Award?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August?Lost
No$422 @ 64.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$92 @ 66.5¢
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Won
Yes$11 @ 19.3¢
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?Lost
No$13 @ 14.1¢
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?Won
Yes$15 @ 48.3¢
Will Microsoft say "CapEx" during earnings call?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Keir Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Won
No$0 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Lost
No$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.4¢
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)Lost
Weili$6 @ 44.0¢
Will Apple say "Apple Intelligence" during earnings call?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Lost
No$4 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (October 27 - November 2)Won
No$0 @ 3.0¢
UFC 322: Hill vs. Kline (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)Lost
Hill$36 @ 17.3¢
Will Jack Grealish join Tottenham?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump say "North Korea" during Malaysia events on October 26?Lost
Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
Will Google say "Gemini" during earnings call?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Won
No$56 @ 27.5¢
Will Uber say "Delivery" during earnings call?Lost
No$0 @ 2.0¢
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?Won
Yes$5 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Won
Yes$0 @ 23.0¢
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?Won
No$80 @ 49.8¢
Will Meta say "Advertising" during earnings call?Lost
No$0 @ 2.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 61.0¢
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?Won
No$2 @ 67.0¢
Will anyone say "New York" or "New Yorker" 45+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?Lost
No$7 @ 5.0¢
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Lost
Yes$27 @ 24.9¢
Will anyone say "Bastard" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?Lost
No$31 @ 11.4¢
Will anyone say "Bastard" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?Won
Yes$48 @ 77.8¢
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video?Won
No$564 @ 53.7¢
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?Lost
No$111 @ 23.0¢
GPT ads by March 31?Lost
No$3 @ 64.0¢
GPT ads by March 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 17.0¢
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next video?Won
No$40 @ 32.3¢
Will Anderson Silva vs. Tyron Woodley have no official winner?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$101 @ 41.2¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Won
No$18 @ 34.7¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Lost
Yes$4 @ 12.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democrats win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$437	60.6¢
Will the Republicans win Alaska in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$436	61.2¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	Politics	Yes	$419	49.7¢
Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?	Culture	Yes	$400	37.5¢
Will the Republicans win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$323	61.4¢
Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?	Politics	No	$300	65.2¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Campeche Congress election?	Politics	Yes	$299	44.2¢
Will the Republicans win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$282	58.3¢
Will StripChain launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$252	49.5¢
Will N1 launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$231	54.9¢
Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$228	44.2¢
Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$224	47.3¢
Lindsay Hubbard and Matt James confirm relationship in 2026?	Culture	No	$221	67.2¢
Will Taylor Swift release an album in 2026?	Culture	No	$201	49.8¢
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Tech	No	$200	53.9¢
Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?	Culture	Yes	$200	57.0¢
Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$200	61.5¢
Will Catena launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Crypto	No	$200	67.2¢
Will Trump pardon anyone by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$200	63.7¢
Will Drake headline Coachella 2027?	Culture	No	$200	49.9¢
Will the Democrats win Maine in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$195	61.4¢
Will the Republicans win Florida in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$179	63.4¢
Will Codex launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	No	$165	52.7¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 300,000 and 325,000?	Politics	No	$162	52.7¢
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?	Tech	No	$152	41.5¢
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$150	49.9¢
Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Politics	No	$133	58.6¢
Will ChatGPT Dots be available on the free plan by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$133	60.4¢
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$132	60.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez not run for Senate or President in 2028?	Politics	Yes	$130	3.1¢

Will the Democrats win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$437 @ 60.6¢
Will the Republicans win Alaska in the 2028 Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$436 @ 61.2¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?Politics
Yes$419 @ 49.7¢
Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?Culture
Yes$400 @ 37.5¢
Will the Republicans win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$323 @ 61.4¢
Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?Politics
No$300 @ 65.2¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Campeche Congress election?Politics
Yes$299 @ 44.2¢
Will the Republicans win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$282 @ 58.3¢
Will StripChain launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$252 @ 49.5¢
Will N1 launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$231 @ 54.9¢
Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$228 @ 44.2¢
Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$224 @ 47.3¢
Lindsay Hubbard and Matt James confirm relationship in 2026?Culture
No$221 @ 67.2¢
Will Taylor Swift release an album in 2026?Culture
No$201 @ 49.8¢
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?Tech
No$200 @ 53.9¢
Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?Culture
Yes$200 @ 57.0¢
Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$200 @ 61.5¢
Will Catena launch a token by March 31, 2027?Crypto
No$200 @ 67.2¢
Will Trump pardon anyone by December 31?Politics
Yes$200 @ 63.7¢
Will Drake headline Coachella 2027?Culture
No$200 @ 49.9¢
Will the Democrats win Maine in the 2028 Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$195 @ 61.4¢
Will the Republicans win Florida in the 2028 Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$179 @ 63.4¢
Will Codex launch a token by June 30, 2027?Crypto
No$165 @ 52.7¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 300,000 and 325,000?Politics
No$162 @ 52.7¢
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?Tech
No$152 @ 41.5¢
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$150 @ 49.9¢
Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
No$133 @ 58.6¢
Will ChatGPT Dots be available on the free plan by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$133 @ 60.4¢
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$132 @ 60.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez not run for Senate or President in 2028?Politics
Yes$130 @ 3.1¢