0xf6c6…7d80

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf6c6f97260df6b37d0d047e756703f60ce6c7d80
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.6pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

88% @ 76.6¢

Brier

0.107

Resolved

Avg size

$115

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	80% (20/25)	+10%	25
Politics	86% (19/22)	+26%	22
Geopolitics	100% (4/4)	+18%	4
Sports	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Other25 bets
Hit rate
80% (20/25)
ROI
+10%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
86% (19/22)
ROI
+26%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+18%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

85% hit · 44/52

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$88	63.0¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	$278	75.4¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	$200	90.0¢	Won
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	No	$50	86.0¢	Won
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	$125	87.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$100	79.0¢	Won
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$419	87.6¢	Won
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?	Yes	$150	89.0¢	Won
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$316	67.0¢	Won
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	$415	74.9¢	Won
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?	No	$320	88.4¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$100	72.0¢	Won
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?	Yes	$146	89.9¢	Won
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$30	72.0¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$390	79.7¢	Won
Amouranth divorced by June 30?	No	$55	88.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?	No	$75	89.8¢	Won
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	No	$25	87.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$300	89.1¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$590	84.2¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$300	83.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$222	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$75	68.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	$150	89.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$40	34.0¢	Lost
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	No	$30	62.4¢	Won
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$400	88.6¢	Won
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?	No	$207	86.8¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$154	41.8¢	Lost
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$586	86.5¢	Won
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$250	86.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$20	83.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$600	58.6¢	Won
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$50	87.0¢	Won
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$200	63.9¢	Won
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	No	$135	85.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026?	No	$40	85.2¢	Won
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$250	82.8¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$50	64.2¢	Won
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	Yes	$150	87.0¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	No	$300	89.5¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$100	50.3¢	Lost
Will Nikema Williams be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?	Yes	$600	86.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	$60	68.0¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	$131	87.0¢	Won
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$1.1k	72.6¢	Won
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30?	No	$35	82.5¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	$65	54.8¢	Won
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	$26	86.0¢	Won
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?	Yes	$30	88.0¢	Won

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$88 @ 63.0¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Won
Yes$278 @ 75.4¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
No$200 @ 90.0¢
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?Won
No$50 @ 86.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Won
No$125 @ 87.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$100 @ 79.0¢
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$419 @ 87.6¢
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?Won
Yes$150 @ 89.0¢
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$316 @ 67.0¢
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?Won
No$415 @ 74.9¢
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?Won
No$320 @ 88.4¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$100 @ 72.0¢
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?Won
Yes$146 @ 89.9¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$30 @ 72.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$390 @ 79.7¢
Amouranth divorced by June 30? Won
No$55 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?Won
No$75 @ 89.8¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Lost
No$25 @ 87.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$300 @ 89.1¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$590 @ 84.2¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$300 @ 83.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$222 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$75 @ 68.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Won
No$150 @ 89.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$40 @ 34.0¢
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 62.4¢
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$400 @ 88.6¢
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? Won
No$207 @ 86.8¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
Yes$154 @ 41.8¢
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$586 @ 86.5¢
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$250 @ 86.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$20 @ 83.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$600 @ 58.6¢
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$50 @ 87.0¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
Yes$200 @ 63.9¢
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?Won
No$135 @ 85.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 85.2¢
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
No$250 @ 82.8¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$50 @ 64.2¢
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?Won
Yes$150 @ 87.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$300 @ 89.5¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$100 @ 50.3¢
Will Nikema Williams be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?Won
Yes$600 @ 86.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
No$60 @ 68.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Won
No$131 @ 87.0¢
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 72.6¢
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30?Won
No$35 @ 82.5¢
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Won
Yes$65 @ 54.8¢
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$26 @ 86.0¢
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?Won
Yes$30 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	81.5¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	60.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	91.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	93.3¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	79.6¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1.4k	90.7¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.3k	90.1¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$1.2k	85.0¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	90.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	71.4¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Politics	No	$930	69.8¢
Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?	Politics	Yes	$875	85.1¢
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?	Politics	Yes	$855	78.4¢
Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	Politics	Yes	$851	90.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$796	88.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$795	92.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$786	84.1¢
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	Politics	No	$778	87.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$730	91.2¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$716	65.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$701	82.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$700	92.1¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Politics	No	$635	80.3¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$625	80.3¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$625	88.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$618	46.8¢
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Politics	Yes	$552	79.6¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	No	$500	91.7¢
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Politics	Yes	$499	86.3¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$462	86.0¢

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 81.5¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 60.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 91.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 93.3¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 79.6¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$1.4k @ 90.7¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Politics
No$1.3k @ 90.1¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$1.2k @ 85.0¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 90.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 71.4¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
No$930 @ 69.8¢
Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?Politics
Yes$875 @ 85.1¢
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?Politics
Yes$855 @ 78.4¢
Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?Politics
Yes$851 @ 90.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$796 @ 88.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$795 @ 92.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$786 @ 84.1¢
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?Politics
No$778 @ 87.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
No$730 @ 91.2¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$716 @ 65.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$701 @ 82.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat?Politics
Yes$700 @ 92.1¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics
No$635 @ 80.3¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$625 @ 80.3¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$625 @ 88.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$618 @ 46.8¢
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Politics
Yes$552 @ 79.6¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
No$500 @ 91.7¢
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Politics
Yes$499 @ 86.3¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$462 @ 86.0¢