← Smart money
0xf658…dcfe
SharpEdge
+7.3pp
ROI
+25%
Win rate
51% @ 43.5¢
Brier
0.158
Resolved
1045
Avg size
$55
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 63% (194/308) | +22% | 308 |
| Politics | 29% (4/14) | +24% | 14 |
| Sports | 75% (3/4) | +175% | 4 |
| Tech | 50% (1/2) | -70% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Economy | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Culture | 100% (1/1) | +2% | 1 |
- Other308 bets
- Hit rate
- 63% (194/308)
- ROI
- +22%
- Politics14 bets
- Hit rate
- 29% (4/14)
- ROI
- +24%
- Sports4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- +175%
- Tech2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -70%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Economy2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +2%
Track record
61% hit · 203/333- No$8 @ 64.0¢
- No$22 @ 87.0¢
- No$214 @ 67.7¢
- No$19 @ 2.7¢
- No$240 @ 80.1¢
- Yes$95 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$162 @ 41.2¢
- Yes$6 @ 15.0¢
- No$138 @ 13.0¢
- No$58 @ 27.2¢
- No$212 @ 52.1¢
- No$92 @ 53.0¢
- Yes$35 @ 63.0¢
- No$51 @ 41.5¢
- Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Innovation" during executive order signing events on November 13?LostNo$22 @ 56.0¢
- No$193 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$19 @ 45.8¢
- No$8 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$109 @ 79.0¢
- No$16 @ 67.0¢
- Yes$90 @ 18.0¢
- No$98 @ 36.4¢
- No$252 @ 80.0¢
- Will JD Vance say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 5+ times during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?LostNo$100 @ 48.2¢
- No$112 @ 48.0¢
- No$182 @ 44.9¢
- No$242 @ 65.5¢
- No$2.0k @ 46.5¢
- No$101 @ 67.6¢
- Yes$132 @ 60.0¢
- No$57 @ 57.0¢
- No$79 @ 43.0¢
- No$269 @ 42.6¢
- No$304 @ 53.0¢
- Yes$36 @ 61.7¢
- Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 10 and 20 million views the first week?WonYes$37 @ 37.0¢
- Yes$34 @ 83.9¢
- Yes$599 @ 55.1¢
- Yes$29 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$111 @ 89.0¢
- No$57 @ 55.0¢
- Yes$33 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$18 @ 15.0¢
- No$3 @ 62.0¢
- No$126 @ 63.0¢
- No$12 @ 50.0¢
- No$100 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$98 @ 0.7¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
- No$155 @ 39.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Politics | No | $4.7k | 94.3¢ |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $2.1k | 47.0¢ |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $657 | 26.3¢ |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $144 | 1.4¢ |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election? | Politics | No | $122 | 94.5¢ |
| Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $64 | 21.3¢ |
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | Politics | No | $52 | 86.0¢ |
| Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $47 | 30.0¢ |
| Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? | Culture | Yes | $15 | 74.0¢ |
| SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $9 | 44.0¢ |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $8 | 4.4¢ |
- No$4.7k @ 94.3¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 47.0¢
- Yes$657 @ 26.3¢
- Yes$144 @ 1.4¢
- No$122 @ 94.5¢
- Yes$64 @ 21.3¢
- No$52 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$47 @ 30.0¢
- Yes$15 @ 74.0¢
- No$9 @ 44.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 4.4¢