0xf609…e68b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.1pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

51% @ 46.5¢

Brier

0.194

Resolved

2060

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (278/525)	+5%	525
Sports	46% (113/245)	+3%	245
Tech	53% (23/43)	+2%	43
Politics	65% (26/40)	+34%	40
Crypto	47% (9/19)	+7%	19
Geopolitics	67% (8/12)	+39%	12
Culture	50% (2/4)	+8%	4
Economy	67% (2/3)	+456%	3
Business	67% (2/3)	+29%	3
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other525 bets
Hit rate
53% (278/525)
ROI
+5%
Sports245 bets
Hit rate
46% (113/245)
ROI
+3%
Tech43 bets
Hit rate
53% (23/43)
ROI
+2%
Politics40 bets
Hit rate
65% (26/40)
ROI
+34%
Crypto19 bets
Hit rate
47% (9/19)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
67% (8/12)
ROI
+39%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+8%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+456%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+29%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

52% hit · 463/895

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	22.0¢	Lost
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch	No	$67	73.0¢	Won
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch	Yes	$2	23.0¢	Lost
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$102	37.6¢	Lost
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June?	No	$17	56.0¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June?	Yes	$10	8.0¢	Lost
Hungary vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5	Under	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	$181	47.8¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 26?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
PortlandFire vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 174.5	Over	$4	39.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026?	No	$19	85.1¢	Won
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	No	$6	36.3¢	Lost
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	Yes	$3	62.0¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5	Under	$14	84.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Lost
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 Week of May 25 2026?	Yes	$4	9.0¢	Lost
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in June?	No	$29	79.0¢	Lost
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $116 in June?	Yes	$16	41.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$26	41.1¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15?	Yes	$5	40.0¢	Won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Under	$4	73.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$2	38.0¢	Lost
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?	Over	$13	55.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 Week of June 1 2026?	No	$31	74.0¢	Won
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31?	No	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$6	28.0¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 28?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	$81	82.4¢	Won
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	$51	78.0¢	Won
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?	Under	$4	50.0¢	Won
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)	Pittsburgh Pirates	$2	22.0¢	Lost
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 5.5	Under	$11	81.7¢	Won
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)	Knicks	$108	75.0¢	Won
Blaublitz Akita vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo: O/U 2.5	Over	$2	26.0¢	Lost
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$26	23.8¢	Lost
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5	Over	$3	51.0¢	Won
Gibraltar vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5	Under	$4	10.0¢	Lost
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5	Over	$11	85.0¢	Won
Will Algeria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$26	9.8¢	Lost
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5	Over	$6	59.0¢	Won
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)	Knicks	$6	36.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$66	81.6¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$22	13.4¢	Lost
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$181	49.8¢	Lost
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5	Under	$4	74.0¢	Won
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?	No	$4	61.0¢	Lost
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?	Yes	$14	22.4¢	Won
Will Micron (MU) close above $980 end of June?	Yes	$4	59.0¢	Won

Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 22.0¢
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launchWon
No$67 @ 73.0¢
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launchLost
Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
No$102 @ 37.6¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June?Won
No$17 @ 56.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢
Hungary vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5Lost
Under$2 @ 7.0¢
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Won
No$181 @ 47.8¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 26?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
PortlandFire vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 174.5Won
Over$4 @ 39.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026?Won
No$19 @ 85.1¢
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?Lost
No$6 @ 36.3¢
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?Won
Yes$3 @ 62.0¢
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Won
Under$14 @ 84.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 Week of May 25 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.0¢
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in June?Lost
No$29 @ 79.0¢
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $116 in June?Won
Yes$16 @ 41.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$26 @ 41.1¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15?Won
Yes$5 @ 40.0¢
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total CornersWon
Under$4 @ 73.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$2 @ 38.0¢
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Won
Over$13 @ 55.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 Week of June 1 2026?Won
No$31 @ 74.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31?Lost
No$1 @ 11.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$6 @ 28.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 28?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Won
No$81 @ 82.4¢
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Won
No$51 @ 78.0¢
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Won
Under$4 @ 50.0¢
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Lost
Pittsburgh Pirates$2 @ 22.0¢
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 5.5Won
Under$11 @ 81.7¢
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Won
Knicks$108 @ 75.0¢
Blaublitz Akita vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$2 @ 26.0¢
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$26 @ 23.8¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Won
Over$3 @ 51.0¢
Gibraltar vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$4 @ 10.0¢
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5Won
Over$11 @ 85.0¢
Will Algeria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$26 @ 9.8¢
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Won
Over$6 @ 59.0¢
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Lost
Knicks$6 @ 36.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$66 @ 81.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$22 @ 13.4¢
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Lost
No$4 @ 8.0¢
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$181 @ 49.8¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Won
Under$4 @ 74.0¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?Lost
No$4 @ 61.0¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 22.4¢
Will Micron (MU) close above $980 end of June?Won
Yes$4 @ 59.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?	Crypto	No	$97	95.8¢
Amazon 2026 capex above $180B?	Tech	Yes	$50	90.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 45% in 2026?	Politics	No	$36	89.0¢
3Jane FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$28	91.9¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?	Politics	No	$23	93.0¢
Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$14	85.1¢
Will Prime Intellect launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Crypto	No	$14	71.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	Politics	No	$13	89.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?	Politics	No	$13	89.0¢
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$13	87.8¢
Will Plasma reach $1.80 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$13	87.1¢
Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$10	81.4¢
Will Ethena reach $1.00 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$9	73.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?	Politics	No	$9	86.2¢
Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$8	75.0¢
Will Prime Intellect launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$6	23.5¢
Will Aster reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$6	80.0¢
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?	Crypto	No	$6	69.4¢
Hotstuff FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$5	67.8¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5	74.5¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	9.0¢
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?	Crypto	No	$5	80.5¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5	75.5¢
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$4	88.1¢
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?	Crypto	No	$4	58.9¢
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by October 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$4	68.7¢
Relay FDV above $900M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$4	80.0¢
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B?	Tech	No	$4	7.0¢
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $5B?	Crypto	No	$4	55.0¢
GMGN FDV above $700M one day after launch	Crypto	No	$4	77.0¢

Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?Crypto
No$97 @ 95.8¢
Amazon 2026 capex above $180B?Tech
Yes$50 @ 90.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 45% in 2026?Politics
No$36 @ 89.0¢
3Jane FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$28 @ 91.9¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?Politics
No$23 @ 93.0¢
Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$14 @ 85.1¢
Will Prime Intellect launch a token by September 30, 2027?Crypto
No$14 @ 71.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?Politics
No$13 @ 89.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026?Politics
No$13 @ 89.0¢
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$13 @ 87.8¢
Will Plasma reach $1.80 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$13 @ 87.1¢
Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$10 @ 81.4¢
Will Ethena reach $1.00 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$9 @ 73.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?Politics
No$9 @ 86.2¢
Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$8 @ 75.0¢
Will Prime Intellect launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$6 @ 23.5¢
Will Aster reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$6 @ 80.0¢
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?Crypto
No$6 @ 69.4¢
Hotstuff FDV above $150M one day after launch?Crypto
No$5 @ 67.8¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$5 @ 74.5¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?Crypto
No$5 @ 80.5¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$5 @ 75.5¢
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$4 @ 88.1¢
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?Crypto
No$4 @ 58.9¢
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by October 31, 2026?Crypto
No$4 @ 68.7¢
Relay FDV above $900M one day after launch?Crypto
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B?Tech
No$4 @ 7.0¢
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $5B?Crypto
No$4 @ 55.0¢
GMGN FDV above $700M one day after launchCrypto
No$4 @ 77.0¢