0xf5e4…471a

Specialization by sphere

• Other330 bets

  Hit rate

  28% (91/330)

  ROI

  +34%

• Politics96 bets

  Hit rate

  25% (24/96)

  ROI

  -20%

• Tech6 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/6)

  ROI

  -100%

• Geopolitics2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by September 30?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 1.0¢
• Will Fabio Roscioli win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?Lost
  No$1 @ 3.0¢
• Will Frank Benedetto win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
• Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?Lost
  Yes$231 @ 6.2¢
• Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?Lost
  No$135 @ 19.5¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 28?Lost
  No$0 @ 10.0¢
• Will Jascha Rohr win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?Won
  Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
• Will Ehsan Kangarani win the next Göttingen mayoral election?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 2.9¢
• Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be between 3% and 6%?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 25.0¢
• Will PPSO win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 0.7¢
• Will Christian Menefee win the Texas House special election runoff by 15% or more?Won
  Yes$1 @ 41.0¢
• Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 11.6¢
• Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Lost
  No$68 @ 1.2¢
• Will Czechia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
• Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Lost
  No$103 @ 18.4¢
• Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Won
  No$706 @ 77.0¢
• Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Lost
  Yes$18 @ 7.4¢
• Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 150 and 199 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$17 @ 11.3¢
• Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
  No$16 @ 40.9¢
• Will Hannah Spencer – Green Party finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?Lost
  Yes$19 @ 6.0¢
• Will António José Seguro win the first round?Won
  Yes$5 @ 3.1¢
• Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Lost
  Yes$156 @ 6.3¢
• Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Won
  No$1 @ 34.0¢
• Will Monokate win Vidbir 2026?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 3.4¢
• Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?Won
  Yes$140 @ 17.4¢
• Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Lost
  No$4 @ 0.2¢
• Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
  No$59 @ 4.8¢
• Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$119 @ 14.9¢
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$97 @ 3.5¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$5 @ 33.0¢
• Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
• Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?Lost
  Yes$52 @ 0.8¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?Won
  No$0 @ 5.3¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 12.0¢
• Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?Lost
  Yes$26 @ 49.0¢
• Will the Green Party win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 16.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Won
  Yes$45 @ 36.1¢
• Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the first round by at least 6%?Lost
  No$5 @ 1.0¢
• Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Lost
  No$11 @ 40.1¢
• Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Lost
  Yes$77 @ 7.8¢
• Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
  No$145 @ 43.4¢
• Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
  No$77 @ 39.3¢
• Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
  Yes$44 @ 22.6¢
• Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
  Yes$212 @ 44.8¢
• Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 2.6¢
• Will Venstre win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Won
  Yes$40 @ 19.3¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Lost
  Yes$271 @ 4.6¢
• Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
  No$28 @ 49.0¢
• Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Won
  No$10 @ 33.0¢
• Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 7.0¢

Current positions

• Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$265 @ 21.7¢
• Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  No$249 @ 46.9¢
• Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$209 @ 26.9¢
• Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Politics
  No$175 @ 27.3¢
• Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Politics
  Yes$165 @ 25.8¢
• Trump meets with Putin by November 30?Politics
  No$162 @ 21.4¢
• Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Politics
  No$140 @ 25.4¢
• Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?Politics
  Yes$134 @ 27.7¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Politics
  No$100 @ 34.0¢
• Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
  No$100 @ 31.0¢
• Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?Politics
  No$100 @ 23.0¢
• Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
  No$68 @ 9.8¢
• Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?Politics
  No$54 @ 8.9¢
• X banned in any European country by December 31?Politics
  Yes$53 @ 19.8¢
• Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Politics
  Yes$50 @ 22.0¢
• Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Politics
  Yes$50 @ 24.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?Politics
  Yes$48 @ 16.2¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?Tech
  No$46 @ 14.8¢
• Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?Politics
  Yes$40 @ 8.4¢
• Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?Politics
  Yes$40 @ 36.2¢
• Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?Politics
  Yes$39 @ 33.0¢
• Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Turkey by December 31, 2027?Politics
  Yes$38 @ 12.2¢
• Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?Politics
  No$35 @ 4.1¢
• Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Politics
  Yes$25 @ 8.0¢
• Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Tech
  Yes$24 @ 11.7¢
• Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?Tech
  Yes$23 @ 13.6¢
• Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?Politics
  No$15 @ 22.7¢
• Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 58-62%?Politics
  Yes$13 @ 3.0¢
• Will Ukraine win Junior Eurovision 2026?Culture
  Yes$11 @ 7.9¢
• Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
  No$10 @ 1.2¢