0xf5c8…430c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf5c8ad43d412bc489b53053190a0cdaae295430c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+21.2pp

ROI

+87%

Win rate

63% @ 41.8¢

Brier

0.324

Resolved

265

Avg size

$39

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	72% (21/29)	+306%	29
Politics	47% (8/17)	-66%	17
Sports	67% (2/3)	+78%	3

Other29 bets
Hit rate
72% (21/29)
ROI
+306%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
ROI
-66%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+78%

Track record

63% hit · 31/49

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spurs vs. Knicks	Spurs	$498	47.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Coach" 15+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?	No	$1	40.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	$339	67.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$0	37.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Qatar" during Address to the Nation?	No	$22	74.0¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$882	33.1¢	Lost
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?	No	$166	81.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?	No	$73	55.8¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$514	35.0¢	Lost
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	No	$4	86.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	No	$4	76.0¢	Won
Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?	Yes	$1.0k	81.0¢	Won
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	Yes	$331	88.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$140	87.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 13, 2026?	Yes	$79	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$40	0.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026?	No	$20	16.7¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$1.4k	24.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 15, 2026?	Yes	$403	84.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026?	Yes	$745	86.8¢	Won
Will Melania say "Husband" or "Trump" during statement on April 9?	Yes	$49	42.3¢	Won
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$82	40.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026?	Yes	$99	86.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$5	47.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$483	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Pope" during TPUSA events on April 17?	No	$177	63.0¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders say "Data Center" in Michigan?	No	$8	78.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026?	No	$31	62.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$51	0.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?	No	$79	32.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	No	$30	76.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation?	No	$24	80.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	$1.2k	35.0¢	Lost
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?	No	$10	87.0¢	Won
Buccaneers vs. Panthers	Panthers	$4	49.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation?	No	$17	28.0¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	$24	67.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026?	No	$18	18.0¢	Lost
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?	Yes	$317	79.4¢	Won
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$12	60.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	Yes	$41	31.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Fake News" during healthcare event?	Yes	$51	56.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Sleepy" or "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?	No	$18	37.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "South Carolina" 7+ times during Tele-Rally?	No	$3	50.0¢	Lost
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$5	50.7¢	Won
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$41	51.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	$425	68.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$57	85.6¢	Won
Will Logan Paul return to the WWE ring before October 31, 2026?	No	$341	77.0¢	Won

Spurs vs. KnicksWon
Spurs$498 @ 47.0¢
Will Trump say "Coach" 15+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Won
No$1 @ 40.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Won
No$339 @ 67.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$0 @ 37.0¢
Will Trump say "Qatar" during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$22 @ 74.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$882 @ 33.1¢
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?Won
No$166 @ 81.5¢
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$73 @ 55.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$514 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?Won
No$4 @ 86.7¢
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?Won
No$4 @ 76.0¢
Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 81.0¢
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?Won
Yes$331 @ 88.4¢
Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$140 @ 87.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 13, 2026?Won
Yes$79 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$40 @ 0.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 16.7¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 24.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 15, 2026?Won
Yes$403 @ 84.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026?Won
Yes$745 @ 86.8¢
Will Melania say "Husband" or "Trump" during statement on April 9?Won
Yes$49 @ 42.3¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$82 @ 40.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026?Won
Yes$99 @ 86.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$5 @ 47.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$483 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump say "Pope" during TPUSA events on April 17?Won
No$177 @ 63.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Data Center" in Michigan?Won
No$8 @ 78.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$51 @ 0.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?Lost
No$79 @ 32.9¢
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?Lost
No$30 @ 76.0¢
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$24 @ 80.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$1.2k @ 35.0¢
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?Won
No$10 @ 87.0¢
Buccaneers vs. PanthersLost
Panthers$4 @ 49.0¢
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$17 @ 28.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$24 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 18.0¢
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?Won
Yes$317 @ 79.4¢
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$12 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?Lost
Yes$41 @ 31.2¢
Will Trump say "Fake News" during healthcare event?Won
Yes$51 @ 56.9¢
Will Trump say "Sleepy" or "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?Won
No$18 @ 37.0¢
Will Trump say "South Carolina" 7+ times during Tele-Rally?Lost
No$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
Yes$5 @ 50.7¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$41 @ 51.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Won
No$425 @ 68.0¢
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$57 @ 85.6¢
Will Logan Paul return to the WWE ring before October 31, 2026?Won
No$341 @ 77.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$425	68.0¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$226	1.4¢
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$199	0.4¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$115	2.2¢
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$57	85.6¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$41	51.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$5	50.7¢

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
No$425 @ 68.0¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$226 @ 1.4¢
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$199 @ 0.4¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$115 @ 2.2¢
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$57 @ 85.6¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$41 @ 51.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 50.7¢