← Smart money
0xf5c4…0926
SharpEdge
+11.9pp
ROI
+13%
Win rate
75% @ 63.0¢
Brier
0.128
Resolved
947
Avg size
$671
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 58% (72/124) | +14% | 124 |
| Politics | 69% (22/32) | +12% | 32 |
| Tech | 80% (8/10) | -0% | 10 |
| Geopolitics | 88% (7/8) | +18% | 8 |
| Sports | 50% (2/4) | -18% | 4 |
| Culture | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other124 bets
- Hit rate
- 58% (72/124)
- ROI
- +14%
- Politics32 bets
- Hit rate
- 69% (22/32)
- ROI
- +12%
- Tech10 bets
- Hit rate
- 80% (8/10)
- ROI
- -0%
- Geopolitics8 bets
- Hit rate
- 88% (7/8)
- ROI
- +18%
- Sports4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- -18%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
62% hit · 111/180- No$1.3k @ 87.7¢
- Yes$710 @ 51.3¢
- Yes$65 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 70.0¢
- No$13.2k @ 74.2¢
- No$1.7k @ 55.0¢
- No$4.0k @ 77.0¢
- Yes$2.7k @ 40.7¢
- Yes$55 @ 25.6¢
- No$1.0k @ 77.0¢
- Yes$30 @ 0.3¢
- No$400 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$3.4k @ 68.0¢
- No$1.5k @ 74.0¢
- Yes$540 @ 15.4¢
- Yes$196 @ 24.0¢
- No$169 @ 83.9¢
- Yes$64 @ 15.9¢
- Yes$52 @ 52.0¢
- No$152 @ 76.0¢
- No$100 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$8.2k @ 79.5¢
- No$1.5k @ 77.0¢
- Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?LostYes$390 @ 78.0¢
- No$5.4k @ 65.0¢
- Yes$270 @ 54.0¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 68.0¢
- Yes$875 @ 87.5¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 79.0¢
- No$6.7k @ 75.8¢
- No$1.1k @ 88.3¢
- No$12.5k @ 86.0¢
- No$10.5k @ 83.1¢
- No$360 @ 72.0¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 10.0¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 74.3¢
- No$2.2k @ 72.9¢
- No$730 @ 73.0¢
- Yes$4.3k @ 38.5¢
- No$427 @ 72.0¢
- Yes$3.6k @ 71.4¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 74.0¢
- Yes$772 @ 86.5¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 58.0¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 77.1¢
- Yes$395 @ 40.0¢
- No$3.4k @ 73.0¢
- No$200 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$100 @ 62.0¢
- No$3.5k @ 87.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Politics | No | $52.2k | 88.4¢ |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $27.9k | 93.0¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $12.2k | 82.0¢ |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $11.0k | 88.0¢ |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Politics | No | $8.8k | 68.0¢ |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | Geopolitics | No | $2.1k | 91.0¢ |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | Tech | Yes | $1.2k | 49.8¢ |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Politics | Yes | $1.1k | 71.0¢ |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Politics | Yes | $780 | 78.0¢ |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | Tech | Yes | $404 | 89.8¢ |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | Tech | Yes | $378 | 88.0¢ |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Politics | No | $187 | 42.0¢ |
- No$52.2k @ 88.4¢
- Yes$27.9k @ 93.0¢
- No$12.2k @ 82.0¢
- No$11.0k @ 88.0¢
- No$8.8k @ 68.0¢
- No$2.1k @ 91.0¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 49.8¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 71.0¢
- Yes$780 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$404 @ 89.8¢
- Yes$378 @ 88.0¢
- No$187 @ 42.0¢