0xf579…9989

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf579036e211211ab1d5d944f1665c394d5959989
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.3pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

67% @ 62.4¢

Brier

0.166

Resolved

1255

Avg size

$213

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (79/162)	+13%	162
Sports	52% (45/87)	-6%	87
Politics	48% (10/21)	-35%	21
Tech	90% (9/10)	+21%	10
Crypto	40% (4/10)	+22%	10
Geopolitics	60% (3/5)	+23%	5
Economy	100% (4/4)	+55%	4
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other162 bets
Hit rate
49% (79/162)
ROI
+13%
Sports87 bets
Hit rate
52% (45/87)
ROI
-6%
Politics21 bets
Hit rate
48% (10/21)
ROI
-35%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
90% (9/10)
ROI
+21%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
+22%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+23%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+55%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

51% hit · 154/300

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	$307	25.5¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$2.5k	87.6¢	Won
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$51	53.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$2.5k	81.0¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$50	67.0¢	Won
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$18	18.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$898	42.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 1.5	Over	$25	76.5¢	Lost
Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$52	27.7¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Over	$15	60.0¢	Lost
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	88.0¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	$12	28.9¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$16	5.5¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?	No	$218	16.3¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?	Yes	$818	86.6¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$736	18.3¢	Lost
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$998	85.5¢	Won
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$44	30.0¢	Lost
Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$13	7.9¢	Lost
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alex Pereira	$54	53.0¢	Lost
Colombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	No	$51	57.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$6.8k	72.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	71.7¢	Lost
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$51	47.0¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.0k	29.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	$10	29.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 France?	Yes	$24	29.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$100	68.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$1.1k	29.0¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$31	39.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$103	5.4¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$104	44.0¢	Won
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	$22	6.9¢	Lost
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	Yes	$51	57.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	$46	8.6¢	Lost
MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?	No	$11	5.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Vici Gaming	$5	33.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$39	13.0¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$2	39.0¢	Lost
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	$32	69.0¢	Won
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$50	33.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$1.3k	70.7¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	$42	8.1¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	$66	32.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	$863	86.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$393	45.9¢	Lost
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	No	$37	7.0¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	$601	60.1¢	Won
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?	Yes	$10	7.5¢	Lost

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
No$307 @ 25.5¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 87.6¢
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$51 @ 53.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$2.5k @ 81.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$50 @ 67.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?Lost
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$898 @ 42.0¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 1.5Lost
Over$25 @ 76.5¢
Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceLost
Switzerland$52 @ 27.7¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$15 @ 60.0¢
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 88.0¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Won
No$12 @ 28.9¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$16 @ 5.5¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?Lost
No$218 @ 16.3¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$818 @ 86.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$736 @ 18.3¢
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$998 @ 85.5¢
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$44 @ 30.0¢
Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$13 @ 7.9¢
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Lost
Alex Pereira$54 @ 53.0¢
Colombia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to ScoreWon
No$51 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$6.8k @ 72.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 71.7¢
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$51 @ 47.0¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 29.0¢
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?Won
Yes$10 @ 29.0¢
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 France?Won
Yes$24 @ 29.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$100 @ 68.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 29.0¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$31 @ 39.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$103 @ 5.4¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$104 @ 44.0¢
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$22 @ 6.9¢
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsWon
Yes$51 @ 57.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in May 2026?Lost
Yes$46 @ 8.6¢
MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?Lost
No$11 @ 5.0¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLost
Vici Gaming$5 @ 33.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$39 @ 13.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 39.0¢
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Won
Yes$32 @ 69.0¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$50 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 70.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 8.1¢
GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?Lost
No$66 @ 32.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Won
No$863 @ 86.3¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$393 @ 45.9¢
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Lost
No$37 @ 7.0¢
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
Yes$601 @ 60.1¢
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$5.6k	84.0¢
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1.3k	84.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	65.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$760	76.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$540	36.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$490	49.0¢
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Tech	Yes	$159	69.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$108	18.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$108	18.0¢
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$95	33.0¢
Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$12	60.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$10	58.0¢
Will Phantom Blade Zero win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Culture	Yes	$4	8.8¢

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$5.6k @ 84.0¢
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1.3k @ 84.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 65.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$760 @ 76.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$540 @ 36.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$490 @ 49.0¢
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech
Yes$159 @ 69.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$108 @ 18.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$108 @ 18.0¢
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$95 @ 33.0¢
Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$12 @ 60.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$10 @ 58.0¢
Will Phantom Blade Zero win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?Culture
Yes$4 @ 8.8¢