0xf53e…2728

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf53e20e9f3f3338fdc9cee435d544b0d23a32728
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.9pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

51% @ 41.2¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

239

Avg size

$171

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (35/80)	+16%	80
Sports	29% (10/34)	-43%	34
Crypto	62% (8/13)	+13%	13

Other80 bets
Hit rate
44% (35/80)
ROI
+16%
Sports34 bets
Hit rate
29% (10/34)
ROI
-43%
Crypto13 bets
Hit rate
62% (8/13)
ROI
+13%

Track record

42% hit · 53/127

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$37	1.8¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	$149	33.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 1?	Yes	$307	37.1¢	Won
France leading at halftime?	Yes	$51	62.0¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	$1.6k	65.6¢	Won
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$8	36.0¢	Won
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$12	2.8¢	Lost
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$136	67.6¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	$420	19.8¢	Lost
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$258	85.8¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$106	26.0¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$207	51.0¢	Lost
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	$56	56.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$70	69.0¢	Won
Spread: France (-1.5)	Paraguay	$204	40.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Senegal?	Yes	$40	7.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway?	Yes	$36	7.0¢	Won
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$98	19.2¢	Lost
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	$20	4.9¢	Won
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$235	77.7¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$103	37.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27?	Yes	$650	66.4¢	Lost
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?	No	$159	79.7¢	Won
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	$202	60.0¢	Won
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	$85	17.0¢	Won
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$17	7.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10?	Yes	$37	37.0¢	Won
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$120	60.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 France?	Yes	$57	14.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 13?	Yes	$88	88.0¢	Won
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$119	59.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?	Yes	$68	11.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	$1.7k	86.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August?	Yes	$86	10.3¢	Won
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	$2.7k	88.2¢	Won
Will Solana reach $90 in April?	Yes	$610	61.0¢	Won
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	1.9¢	Lost
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	$391	82.9¢	Won
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 England?	Yes	$44	4.7¢	Lost
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$209	69.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 3?	Yes	$10	2.2¢	Lost
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$133	66.0¢	Won
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$102	23.0¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	$131	17.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$197	65.0¢	Won
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$117	31.2¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$106	26.0¢	Lost
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$55	18.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 10?	Yes	$19	19.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 1?	No	$315	78.8¢	Won

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$37 @ 1.8¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Lost
No$149 @ 33.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 1?Won
Yes$307 @ 37.1¢
France leading at halftime?Lost
Yes$51 @ 62.0¢
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 65.6¢
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Won
Yes$8 @ 36.0¢
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.8¢
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$136 @ 67.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Lost
Yes$420 @ 19.8¢
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$258 @ 85.8¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$106 @ 26.0¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$207 @ 51.0¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$56 @ 56.0¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$70 @ 69.0¢
Spread: France (-1.5)Won
Paraguay$204 @ 40.0¢
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Senegal?Lost
Yes$40 @ 7.0¢
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway?Won
Yes$36 @ 7.0¢
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$98 @ 19.2¢
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Morocco?Won
Yes$20 @ 4.9¢
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$235 @ 77.7¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$103 @ 37.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27?Lost
Yes$650 @ 66.4¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?Won
No$159 @ 79.7¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Won
Yes$202 @ 60.0¢
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?Won
No$85 @ 17.0¢
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?Lost
No$17 @ 7.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10?Won
Yes$37 @ 37.0¢
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$120 @ 60.0¢
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 France?Lost
Yes$57 @ 14.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 13?Won
Yes$88 @ 88.0¢
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$119 @ 59.0¢
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?Lost
Yes$68 @ 11.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Won
No$1.7k @ 86.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August?Won
Yes$86 @ 10.3¢
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 88.2¢
Will Solana reach $90 in April?Won
Yes$610 @ 61.0¢
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.9¢
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?Won
No$391 @ 82.9¢
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 England?Lost
Yes$44 @ 4.7¢
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$209 @ 69.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 3?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.2¢
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$133 @ 66.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$102 @ 23.0¢
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$131 @ 17.0¢
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$197 @ 65.0¢
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$117 @ 31.2¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$106 @ 26.0¢
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$55 @ 18.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 10?Lost
Yes$19 @ 19.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 1?Won
No$315 @ 78.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.9k	84.5¢
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$1.9k	80.6¢
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$1.1k	84.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.0k	94.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$998	77.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$992	68.2¢
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$680	68.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$575	89.4¢
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$570	57.0¢
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$355	95.9¢
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$183	61.0¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.9k @ 84.5¢
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$1.9k @ 80.6¢
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$1.1k @ 84.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.0k @ 94.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$998 @ 77.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$992 @ 68.2¢
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$680 @ 68.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$575 @ 89.4¢
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$570 @ 57.0¢
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$355 @ 95.9¢
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$183 @ 61.0¢