0xf3ca…60ae

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf3ca90002a591c8abcb39f8b0d83d2885d0f60ae
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.1pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

57% @ 52.5¢

Brier

0.159

Resolved

1414

Avg size

$35

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (111/185)	+10%	185
Politics	53% (60/114)	+6%	114
Geopolitics	53% (9/17)	+5%	17
Sports	50% (7/14)	+60%	14
Tech	50% (1/2)	+83%	2
Economy	50% (1/2)	+6%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-92%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other185 bets
Hit rate
60% (111/185)
ROI
+10%
Politics114 bets
Hit rate
53% (60/114)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
53% (9/17)
ROI
+5%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
50% (7/14)
ROI
+60%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+83%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+6%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-92%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

56% hit · 190/337

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$18	18.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$66	83.1¢	Won
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	$85	85.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 13?	No	$17	85.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$49	16.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$34	68.0¢	Lost
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$10	9.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	$89	88.5¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	No	$33	82.0¢	Won
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$17	32.3¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$24	8.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.4k	73.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$295	15.5¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?	No	$6	59.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?	Yes	$9	88.0¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$67	67.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$66	66.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$89	88.9¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$14	14.1¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$46	57.8¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	No	$168	85.7¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	$72	71.6¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	$31	30.7¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	No	$7	70.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	5.1¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	$18	17.6¢	Lost
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	$51	51.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$65	65.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	No	$1.1k	81.1¢	Won
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	$31	7.8¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$21	42.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$95	84.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?	No	$18	17.5¢	Lost
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner	JD Gaming	$49	16.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	40.8¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 Week of April 13 2026?	Yes	$2	23.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$42	83.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$18	18.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	$154	77.2¢	Won
Trump out as President by August 31?	Yes	$8	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$173	86.3¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February?	No	$255	85.0¢	Won
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30?	No	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	$50	25.0¢	Lost

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$1 @ 11.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$66 @ 83.1¢
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?Won
Yes$85 @ 85.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 13?Won
No$17 @ 85.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$49 @ 16.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$34 @ 68.0¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Won
Yes$89 @ 88.5¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
No$33 @ 82.0¢
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$17 @ 32.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$24 @ 8.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 73.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$295 @ 15.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?Lost
No$6 @ 59.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?Won
Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$67 @ 67.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$66 @ 66.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$89 @ 88.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.1¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$46 @ 57.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Won
No$168 @ 85.7¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Won
Lakers$72 @ 71.6¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$31 @ 30.7¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Won
No$7 @ 70.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.1¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?Lost
Yes$18 @ 17.6¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$51 @ 51.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$65 @ 65.0¢
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Won
No$1.1k @ 81.1¢
Will Putin visit China by May 31?Lost
No$31 @ 7.8¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$21 @ 42.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$95 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?Lost
No$18 @ 17.5¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 WinnerLost
JD Gaming$49 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 40.8¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 Week of April 13 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$42 @ 83.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Won
No$154 @ 77.2¢
Trump out as President by August 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$173 @ 86.3¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February?Won
No$255 @ 85.0¢
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30?Lost
No$0 @ 3.0¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Lost
Yes$50 @ 25.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?	Geopolitics	No	$174	76.8¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$144	3.6¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$130	11.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$69	34.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$67	67.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$64	6.4¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$56	55.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.7% and 4.0%?	Geopolitics	No	$55	91.5¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$47	79.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$32	3.7¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$31	31.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$27	18.6¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$27	3.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$24	26.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$24	24.0¢
Tom Holland as Spider-Man?	Culture	No	$24	48.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 5.5%?	Geopolitics	No	$21	89.9¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	20.0¢
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	20.0¢
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$16	79.0¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September?	Politics	No	$12	86.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$12	6.0¢
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$11	91.0¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$10	10.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$9	9.5¢
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$5	5.0¢
Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$4	4.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	Politics	No	$4	8.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$3	3.4¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	2.0¢

Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?Geopolitics
No$174 @ 76.8¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$144 @ 3.6¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$130 @ 11.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?Geopolitics
Yes$69 @ 34.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$67 @ 67.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$64 @ 6.4¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$56 @ 55.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.7% and 4.0%?Geopolitics
No$55 @ 91.5¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$47 @ 79.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$32 @ 3.7¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$31 @ 31.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?Geopolitics
Yes$27 @ 18.6¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$27 @ 3.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$24 @ 26.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$24 @ 24.0¢
Tom Holland as Spider-Man?Culture
No$24 @ 48.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 5.5%?Geopolitics
No$21 @ 89.9¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?Geopolitics
No$16 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September?Politics
No$12 @ 86.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$11 @ 91.0¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Politics
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$9 @ 9.5¢
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?Politics
No$4 @ 8.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$3 @ 3.4¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢