0xf2b0…b26b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf2b05d854e0af18e70b76e96534e2e7f7a04b26b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

76% @ 70.9¢

Brier

0.095

Resolved

439

Avg size

$270

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	73% (43/59)	+8%	59
Politics	85% (47/55)	+5%	55
Geopolitics	90% (9/10)	+14%	10
Tech	67% (4/6)	-80%	6
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+83%	1

Other59 bets
Hit rate
73% (43/59)
ROI
+8%
Politics55 bets
Hit rate
85% (47/55)
ROI
+5%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
90% (9/10)
ROI
+14%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
-80%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+83%

Track record

79% hit · 104/131

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	$576	96.0¢	Won
Will Iran target an Arab country by November 15, 2026?	No	$82	76.7¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 11?	Yes	$173	98.3¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	$194	96.9¢	Won
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	No	$779	86.6¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	$961	87.7¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	90.9¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	$465	93.0¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ?	Yes	$1	92.0¢	Lost
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	No	$50	49.9¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?	Yes	$264	88.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?	Yes	$594	96.9¢	Won
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	98.3¢	Won
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	Yes	$2.5k	94.1¢	Won
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?	Yes	$147	99.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	$1.4k	90.7¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?	No	$99	98.9¢	Won
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	No	$1.4k	69.0¢	Won
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 6, 2026?	No	$49	97.9¢	Won
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?	No	$870	58.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$59	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	$1.0k	93.5¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$1.1k	97.3¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$985	98.5¢	Lost
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?	No	$500	98.4¢	Lost
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	$802	96.8¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$95	95.0¢	Won
Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$94	94.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No	$288	96.0¢	Won
Meta announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$18	91.0¢	Won
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$56	92.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	$95	95.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	$186	93.0¢	Won
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?	No	$99	98.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	$704	87.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	$514	85.7¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$288	82.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$176	88.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	No	$182	91.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$15	77.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$890	89.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?	Yes	$338	88.1¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Hormuz" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	$88	88.0¢	Won
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	$1.5k	78.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.8k	89.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$1.5k	88.0¢	Won
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?	No	$1.0k	86.8¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	$2.5k	88.5¢	Won
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	No	$71	89.9¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$1.5k	43.8¢	Won

Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?Won
Yes$576 @ 96.0¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by November 15, 2026?Lost
No$82 @ 76.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 11?Won
Yes$173 @ 98.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?Won
Yes$194 @ 96.9¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$779 @ 86.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Won
Yes$961 @ 87.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 90.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Won
No$465 @ 93.0¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ?Lost
Yes$1 @ 92.0¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Won
No$50 @ 49.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?Won
Yes$264 @ 88.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?Won
Yes$594 @ 96.9¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 98.3¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 94.1¢
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?Won
Yes$147 @ 99.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Won
No$1.4k @ 90.7¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?Won
No$99 @ 98.9¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 69.0¢
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 6, 2026?Won
No$49 @ 97.9¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?Won
No$870 @ 58.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$59 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 93.5¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 97.3¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$985 @ 98.5¢
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?Lost
No$500 @ 98.4¢
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Lost
No$802 @ 96.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$95 @ 95.0¢
Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?Won
No$94 @ 94.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Won
No$288 @ 96.0¢
Meta announces a training pause by October 31?Won
No$18 @ 91.0¢
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?Won
No$56 @ 92.0¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Won
No$95 @ 95.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Won
No$186 @ 93.0¢
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?Won
No$99 @ 98.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Won
Yes$704 @ 87.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Won
Yes$514 @ 85.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$288 @ 82.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
Yes$176 @ 88.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Lost
No$182 @ 91.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 77.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$890 @ 89.0¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?Won
Yes$338 @ 88.1¢
Will Leavitt say "Hormuz" during the next White House Press Briefing?Won
Yes$88 @ 88.0¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Lost
No$1.5k @ 78.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 89.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$1.5k @ 88.0¢
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 86.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Won
No$2.5k @ 88.5¢
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Won
No$71 @ 89.9¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 43.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	—	No	$14.5k	92.3¢
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Politics	Yes	$4.7k	98.4¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Politics	No	$2.8k	86.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.6k	81.1¢
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?	—	No	$2.6k	67.3¢
Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	95.5¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	94.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.4k	92.3¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	97.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$1.1k	96.5¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.0k	79.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.0k	95.5¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	—	No	$985	98.5¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	No	$967	96.7¢
Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	Business	No	$954	95.4¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$802	94.3¢
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	—	No	$802	96.8¢
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$779	62.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$779	86.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$697	94.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$670	95.8¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$518	74.1¢
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?	—	No	$500	98.4¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$494	98.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$481	96.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?	Politics	Yes	$472	89.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$440	88.0¢
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?	Politics	Yes	$436	87.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$430	86.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$423	8.8¢

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?—
No$14.5k @ 92.3¢
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics
Yes$4.7k @ 98.4¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Politics
No$2.8k @ 86.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2.6k @ 81.1¢
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?—
No$2.6k @ 67.3¢
Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 95.5¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 94.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1.4k @ 92.3¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 97.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$1.1k @ 96.5¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics
No$1.0k @ 79.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$1.0k @ 95.5¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?—
No$985 @ 98.5¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
No$967 @ 96.7¢
Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?Business
No$954 @ 95.4¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$802 @ 94.3¢
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?—
No$802 @ 96.8¢
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?—
Yes$779 @ 62.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$779 @ 86.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$697 @ 94.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat?Politics
Yes$670 @ 95.8¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$518 @ 74.1¢
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?—
No$500 @ 98.4¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$494 @ 98.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$481 @ 96.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?Politics
Yes$472 @ 89.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$440 @ 88.0¢
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Politics
Yes$436 @ 87.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$430 @ 86.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$423 @ 8.8¢