0xf2b0…b26b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf2b05d854e0af18e70b76e96534e2e7f7a04b26b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

76% @ 70.4¢

Brier

0.096

Resolved

418

Avg size

$269

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	77% (43/56)	+10%	56
Politics	75% (9/12)	+6%	12
Geopolitics	100% (4/4)	+18%	4
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+83%	1

Other56 bets
Hit rate
77% (43/56)
ROI
+10%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
75% (9/12)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+18%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+83%

Track record

78% hit · 57/73

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$15	77.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$890	89.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?	Yes	$338	88.1¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Hormuz" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	$88	88.0¢	Won
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	$1.5k	78.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.8k	89.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$1.5k	88.0¢	Won
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?	No	$1.0k	86.8¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	$2.5k	88.5¢	Won
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	No	$71	89.9¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$1.5k	43.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$572	81.7¢	Won
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	$890	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$6.6k	82.1¢	Won
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?	Yes	$5.9k	85.4¢	Won
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	Yes	$2.2k	64.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$1.5k	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$136	68.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$100	85.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$13.8k	82.3¢	Won
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	80.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$3.1k	78.0¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	$338	81.9¢	Lost
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?	Yes	$256	74.7¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?	Yes	$3.1k	85.7¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	$4.9k	83.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$830	83.0¢	Lost
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?	Yes	$67	67.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$7.0k	87.8¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	No	$6.9k	80.6¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	No	$10.6k	85.8¢	Won
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?	Yes	$3.0k	79.5¢	Won
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?	Yes	$492	70.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	70.9¢	Won
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?	Yes	$1.4k	79.4¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	No	$1.6k	79.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	No	$198	79.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	88.0¢	Won
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?	No	$179	84.4¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	Yes	$441	73.4¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$28	2.8¢	Lost
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	$100	73.9¢	Won
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?	Yes	$208	84.9¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$3.7k	83.2¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	$627	89.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	$500	88.7¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8?	Yes	$3	16.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$1000	85.0¢	Lost

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 77.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$890 @ 89.0¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?Won
Yes$338 @ 88.1¢
Will Leavitt say "Hormuz" during the next White House Press Briefing?Won
Yes$88 @ 88.0¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Lost
No$1.5k @ 78.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 89.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$1.5k @ 88.0¢
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 86.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Won
No$2.5k @ 88.5¢
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Won
No$71 @ 89.9¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 43.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$572 @ 81.7¢
Iran leadership change by March 13?Won
No$890 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$6.6k @ 82.1¢
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Won
Yes$5.9k @ 85.4¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 64.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 87.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$136 @ 68.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$100 @ 85.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$13.8k @ 82.3¢
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 80.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$3.1k @ 78.0¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Lost
No$338 @ 81.9¢
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$256 @ 74.7¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 85.7¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?Won
Yes$4.9k @ 83.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$830 @ 83.0¢
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?Lost
Yes$67 @ 67.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$7.0k @ 87.8¢
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Won
No$6.9k @ 80.6¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Won
No$10.6k @ 85.8¢
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 79.5¢
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?Won
Yes$492 @ 70.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 70.9¢
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 79.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 79.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Lost
No$198 @ 79.0¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 88.0¢
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?Won
No$179 @ 84.4¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?Won
Yes$441 @ 73.4¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$28 @ 2.8¢
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Won
Yes$100 @ 73.9¢
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?Won
Yes$208 @ 84.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
No$3.7k @ 83.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Won
No$627 @ 89.6¢
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
No$500 @ 88.7¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8?Lost
Yes$3 @ 16.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1000 @ 85.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$9.2k	78.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$8.2k	79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.6k	97.0¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.5k	77.4¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.0k	97.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$1.5k	95.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	92.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$1.4k	90.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$860	86.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Politics	No	$694	99.1¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	No	$473	94.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$366	92.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$340	85.1¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$290	89.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$237	94.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$192	96.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$186	93.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$97	97.0¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Politics	No	$95	95.0¢
Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?	Tech	No	$94	94.0¢
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?	Tech	No	$56	92.0¢
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?	Politics	No	$39	98.5¢
Meta announces a training pause by October 31?	Tech	No	$18	91.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$9.2k @ 78.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$8.2k @ 79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$2.6k @ 97.0¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics
No$2.5k @ 77.4¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$2.0k @ 97.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
No$1.5k @ 95.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 92.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$1.4k @ 90.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$860 @ 86.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Politics
No$694 @ 99.1¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
No$473 @ 94.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$366 @ 92.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$340 @ 85.1¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$290 @ 89.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$237 @ 94.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$192 @ 96.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$186 @ 93.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Geopolitics
No$97 @ 97.0¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Politics
No$95 @ 95.0¢
Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?Tech
No$94 @ 94.0¢
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?Tech
No$56 @ 92.0¢
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?Politics
No$39 @ 98.5¢
Meta announces a training pause by October 31?Tech
No$18 @ 91.0¢