0xf2ac…f897

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf2ac8cbe0daf3fdf098ba57d62535dac464cf897
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.5pp

ROI

+120%

Win rate

52% @ 37.4¢

Brier

0.204

Resolved

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (23/38)	+159%	38
Politics	36% (5/14)	+74%	14
Geopolitics	83% (5/6)	-31%	6

Other38 bets
Hit rate
61% (23/38)
ROI
+159%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
36% (5/14)
ROI
+74%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
-31%

Track record

57% hit · 33/58

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$2	63.4¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$20	13.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Yes	$1	49.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?	No	$5	62.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	$1	74.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$1	40.0¢	Lost
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$2	63.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$10	47.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$10	40.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	No	$3	72.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$10	30.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$1	70.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$5	43.3¢	Won
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	7.3¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.4¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$1	61.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	$1	23.0¢	Won
Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	$10	19.0¢	Won
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$1	51.0¢	Won
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 26, 2026?	No	$10	64.0¢	Won
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$1	34.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	74.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$2	14.7¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$2	14.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	No	$10	31.0¢	Won
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?	Yes	$4	70.8¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	$20	34.1¢	Lost
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?	No	$1	73.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$1	68.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$1	43.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	$1	80.0¢	Won
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?	Yes	$4	59.0¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by April 30?	Yes	$1	1.7¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	44.2¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?	No	$1	60.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	$10	55.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?	Yes	$5	83.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	46.1¢	Won
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?	Yes	$1	55.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	$26	2.5¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$1	72.5¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	32.0¢	Won

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 63.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$20 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Won
Yes$1 @ 49.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?Won
No$5 @ 62.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Won
No$1 @ 74.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
No$1 @ 40.0¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$2 @ 63.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$10 @ 47.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 40.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Won
No$3 @ 72.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 30.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$1 @ 70.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 43.3¢
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.3¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.4¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 61.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Won
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 19.0¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 51.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 26, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 64.0¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 34.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 74.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Won
No$10 @ 31.0¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 70.8¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 34.1¢
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?Won
No$1 @ 73.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$1 @ 68.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 43.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Won
No$1 @ 80.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 59.0¢
Netanyahu out by April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 44.2¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 60.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Lost
No$10 @ 55.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 83.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 46.1¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 55.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Lost
No$26 @ 2.5¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 72.5¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Politics	Yes	$70	13.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$20	27.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Politics	No	$13	22.9¢
Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	16.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?	Geopolitics	No	$10	48.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	Politics	No	$10	42.0¢
Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	12.0¢

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Politics
Yes$70 @ 13.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$20 @ 27.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
No$13 @ 22.9¢
Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?Geopolitics
No$10 @ 48.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Politics
No$10 @ 42.0¢
Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 12.0¢