0xf2aa…21fb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf2aa8381a08ec33467fbcdd0843aa31cb8d521fb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-1.7pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

30% @ 31.3¢

Brier

0.136

Resolved

4898

Avg size

$82

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (261/567)	+16%	567
Science	43% (20/46)	+42%	46
Politics	52% (15/29)	-2%	29
Geopolitics	38% (11/29)	-43%	29
Tech	42% (10/24)	-31%	24
Economy	80% (8/10)	+12%	10
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+292%	2

Other567 bets
Hit rate
46% (261/567)
ROI
+16%
Science46 bets
Hit rate
43% (20/46)
ROI
+42%
Politics29 bets
Hit rate
52% (15/29)
ROI
-2%
Geopolitics29 bets
Hit rate
38% (11/29)
ROI
-43%
Tech24 bets
Hit rate
42% (10/24)
ROI
-31%
Economy10 bets
Hit rate
80% (8/10)
ROI
+12%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+292%

Track record

46% hit · 326/707

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in October?	No	$630	87.5¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	Yes	$83	22.4¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	$190	32.9¢	Lost
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?	No	$1.4k	82.0¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$631	21.4¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$1.0k	81.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$1.3k	31.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?	No	$391	38.1¢	Won
Will Trump's UN speech be between 35 and 40 minutes?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	No	$133	8.3¢	Lost
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?	No	$1.1k	88.5¢	Won
Will Panke win the Aster trading competition?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$265	24.0¢	Lost
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?	No	$48	41.2¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?	No	$457	82.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$510	68.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	No	$3.5k	61.8¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?	Yes	$785	33.3¢	Won
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?	Yes	$248	23.0¢	Lost
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%?	No	$11	81.0¢	Won
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?	Yes	$294	5.7¢	Lost
Will 538 call 49 states correctly?	No	$95	89.0¢	Won
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?	No	$1.0k	59.4¢	Won
Will Elisa win the Legend Trade Series?	No	$59	86.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	No	$2.2k	71.8¢	Lost
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	$2.3k	73.6¢	Won
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	No	$3	20.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	$225	1.1¢	Won
US kicks trans members out of military before July?	No	$280	36.9¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	23.6¢	Lost
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?	No	$1.3k	23.8¢	Lost
Will Game 11 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?	Yes	$7	2.0¢	Lost
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	No	$1000	72.5¢	Lost
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	Yes	$998	48.7¢	Won
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	No	$248	5.5¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$260	13.0¢	Lost
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	$141	13.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?	Yes	$517	32.3¢	Lost
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?	Yes	$1.7k	22.7¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?	No	$748	47.3¢	Won
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$2.2k	62.7¢	Lost
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$360	18.0¢	Lost
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$1.7k	87.0¢	Won
FDA approves Merck’s clesrovimab infant RSV prevention (MK‑1654)?	No	$536	10.6¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$61	6.1¢	Won
Will Binance list another Pump.fun coin in November?	No	$319	56.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$286	30.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?	Yes	$3	9.8¢	Won
Honda and Nissan merger announced before February?	No	$1.6k	66.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?	Yes	$128	5.5¢	Lost

Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in October?Won
No$630 @ 87.5¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?Lost
Yes$83 @ 22.4¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?Lost
Yes$190 @ 32.9¢
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?Won
No$1.4k @ 82.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$631 @ 21.4¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$1.0k @ 81.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 31.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?Won
No$391 @ 38.1¢
Will Trump's UN speech be between 35 and 40 minutes?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$133 @ 8.3¢
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?Won
No$1.1k @ 88.5¢
Will Panke win the Aster trading competition?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$265 @ 24.0¢
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?Won
No$48 @ 41.2¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?Won
No$457 @ 82.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$510 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Lost
No$3.5k @ 61.8¢
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?Won
Yes$785 @ 33.3¢
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?Lost
Yes$248 @ 23.0¢
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%?Won
No$11 @ 81.0¢
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?Lost
Yes$294 @ 5.7¢
Will 538 call 49 states correctly?Won
No$95 @ 89.0¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?Won
No$1.0k @ 59.4¢
Will Elisa win the Legend Trade Series?Won
No$59 @ 86.0¢
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Lost
No$2.2k @ 71.8¢
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 73.6¢
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Lost
No$3 @ 20.0¢
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Won
Yes$225 @ 1.1¢
US kicks trans members out of military before July? Won
No$280 @ 36.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 23.6¢
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?Lost
No$1.3k @ 23.8¢
Will Game 11 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Lost
No$1000 @ 72.5¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Won
Yes$998 @ 48.7¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Lost
No$248 @ 5.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$260 @ 13.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
No$141 @ 13.0¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?Lost
Yes$517 @ 32.3¢
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 22.7¢
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?Won
No$748 @ 47.3¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 62.7¢
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$360 @ 18.0¢
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 87.0¢
FDA approves Merck’s clesrovimab infant RSV prevention (MK‑1654)?Lost
No$536 @ 10.6¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$61 @ 6.1¢
Will Binance list another Pump.fun coin in November?Won
No$319 @ 56.4¢
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$286 @ 30.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?Won
Yes$3 @ 9.8¢
Honda and Nissan merger announced before February?Won
No$1.6k @ 66.4¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?Lost
Yes$128 @ 5.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?	Science	No	$1.6k	89.8¢
Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Science	Yes	$1.3k	32.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$1.0k	68.3¢
Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Politics	No	$1.0k	85.0¢
Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Politics	No	$720	68.9¢
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	Economy	No	$698	89.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$671	78.4¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	Yes	$610	63.4¢
Will there be 7+ hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Science	Yes	$505	19.9¢
Will Grüne be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Politics	No	$427	89.4¢
Will CDU be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Politics	No	$398	89.1¢
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Politics	No	$381	58.0¢
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$321	64.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$296	74.0¢
Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Politics	No	$290	85.5¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?	Science	No	$283	75.6¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	Science	No	$271	90.6¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in South Carolina by November 30, 2026?	Science	No	$266	89.9¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?	Science	No	$235	88.0¢
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	Yes	$235	24.4¢
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?	Economy	No	$234	81.8¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Economy	Yes	$190	32.9¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026?	Science	No	$175	91.1¢
Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?	Economy	No	$164	90.6¢
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?	Politics	No	$88	10.4¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	Economy	Yes	$83	22.4¢
All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?	Science	No	$80	54.4¢
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?	Politics	No	$78	15.4¢
Will ground beef hit $7 per pound in 2026?	Economy	No	$69	71.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$34	23.8¢

Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?Science
No$1.6k @ 89.8¢
Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Science
Yes$1.3k @ 32.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$1.0k @ 68.3¢
Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Politics
No$1.0k @ 85.0¢
Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Politics
No$720 @ 68.9¢
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?Economy
No$698 @ 89.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$671 @ 78.4¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
Yes$610 @ 63.4¢
Will there be 7+ hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Science
Yes$505 @ 19.9¢
Will Grüne be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Politics
No$427 @ 89.4¢
Will CDU be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Politics
No$398 @ 89.1¢
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?Politics
No$381 @ 58.0¢
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$321 @ 64.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
Yes$296 @ 74.0¢
Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Politics
No$290 @ 85.5¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?Science
No$283 @ 75.6¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?Science
No$271 @ 90.6¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in South Carolina by November 30, 2026?Science
No$266 @ 89.9¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?Science
No$235 @ 88.0¢
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
Yes$235 @ 24.4¢
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?Economy
No$234 @ 81.8¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?Economy
Yes$190 @ 32.9¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026?Science
No$175 @ 91.1¢
Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?Economy
No$164 @ 90.6¢
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?Politics
No$88 @ 10.4¢
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?Economy
Yes$83 @ 22.4¢
All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?Science
No$80 @ 54.4¢
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?Politics
No$78 @ 15.4¢
Will ground beef hit $7 per pound in 2026?Economy
No$69 @ 71.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$34 @ 23.8¢