0xf2aa…21fb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf2aa8381a08ec33467fbcdd0843aa31cb8d521fb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-2.2pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

28% @ 30.7¢

Brier

0.136

Resolved

4321

Avg size

$80

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (240/521)	+11%	521
Politics	50% (10/20)	-8%	20
Tech	44% (8/18)	-37%	18
Geopolitics	25% (1/4)	-84%	4
Science	33% (1/3)	+24%	3
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+292%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+25%	1

Other521 bets
Hit rate
46% (240/521)
ROI
+11%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
-8%
Tech18 bets
Hit rate
44% (8/18)
ROI
-37%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-84%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+24%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+292%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+25%

Track record

46% hit · 262/569

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?	No	$1.4k	82.0¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$631	21.4¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$1.0k	81.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$1.3k	31.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?	No	$391	38.1¢	Won
Will Trump's UN speech be between 35 and 40 minutes?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	No	$133	8.3¢	Lost
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?	No	$1.1k	88.5¢	Won
Will Panke win the Aster trading competition?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$265	24.0¢	Lost
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?	No	$48	41.2¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?	No	$457	82.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$510	68.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	No	$3.5k	61.8¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?	Yes	$785	33.3¢	Won
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?	Yes	$248	23.0¢	Lost
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%?	No	$11	81.0¢	Won
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?	Yes	$294	5.7¢	Lost
Will 538 call 49 states correctly?	No	$95	89.0¢	Won
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?	No	$1.0k	59.4¢	Won
Will Elisa win the Legend Trade Series?	No	$59	86.0¢	Won
US kicks trans members out of military before July?	No	$280	36.9¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	23.6¢	Lost
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?	No	$1.3k	23.8¢	Lost
Will Game 11 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?	Yes	$7	2.0¢	Lost
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	No	$1000	72.5¢	Lost
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	Yes	$998	48.7¢	Won
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	No	$248	5.5¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$260	13.0¢	Lost
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	$141	13.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?	Yes	$517	32.3¢	Lost
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?	Yes	$1.7k	22.7¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?	No	$748	47.3¢	Won
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$2.2k	62.7¢	Lost
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$360	18.0¢	Lost
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$1.7k	87.0¢	Won
FDA approves Merck’s clesrovimab infant RSV prevention (MK‑1654)?	No	$536	10.6¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$61	6.1¢	Won
Will Binance list another Pump.fun coin in November?	No	$319	56.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$286	30.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?	Yes	$3	9.8¢	Won
Honda and Nissan merger announced before February?	No	$1.6k	66.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?	Yes	$128	5.5¢	Lost
Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens?	No	$1.9k	25.5¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Russia before July?	No	$999	63.6¢	Won
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$442	49.4¢	Won
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	$3.3k	64.3¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of January 2026?	Yes	$910	9.1¢	Lost
Trump announces withdrawal of U.S. troops from Warsaw Pact country before July?	No	$1.0k	62.6¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?	Yes	$802	17.8¢	Lost

Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?Won
No$1.4k @ 82.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$631 @ 21.4¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$1.0k @ 81.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 31.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?Won
No$391 @ 38.1¢
Will Trump's UN speech be between 35 and 40 minutes?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$133 @ 8.3¢
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?Won
No$1.1k @ 88.5¢
Will Panke win the Aster trading competition?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$265 @ 24.0¢
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?Won
No$48 @ 41.2¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?Won
No$457 @ 82.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$510 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Lost
No$3.5k @ 61.8¢
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?Won
Yes$785 @ 33.3¢
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?Lost
Yes$248 @ 23.0¢
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%?Won
No$11 @ 81.0¢
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?Lost
Yes$294 @ 5.7¢
Will 538 call 49 states correctly?Won
No$95 @ 89.0¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?Won
No$1.0k @ 59.4¢
Will Elisa win the Legend Trade Series?Won
No$59 @ 86.0¢
US kicks trans members out of military before July? Won
No$280 @ 36.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 23.6¢
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?Lost
No$1.3k @ 23.8¢
Will Game 11 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Lost
No$1000 @ 72.5¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Won
Yes$998 @ 48.7¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Lost
No$248 @ 5.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$260 @ 13.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
No$141 @ 13.0¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?Lost
Yes$517 @ 32.3¢
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 22.7¢
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?Won
No$748 @ 47.3¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 62.7¢
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$360 @ 18.0¢
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 87.0¢
FDA approves Merck’s clesrovimab infant RSV prevention (MK‑1654)?Lost
No$536 @ 10.6¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$61 @ 6.1¢
Will Binance list another Pump.fun coin in November?Won
No$319 @ 56.4¢
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$286 @ 30.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?Won
Yes$3 @ 9.8¢
Honda and Nissan merger announced before February?Won
No$1.6k @ 66.4¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?Lost
Yes$128 @ 5.5¢
Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens?Lost
No$1.9k @ 25.5¢
Will Trump visit Russia before July?Won
No$999 @ 63.6¢
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?Won
Yes$442 @ 49.4¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Won
No$3.3k @ 64.3¢
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of January 2026?Lost
Yes$910 @ 9.1¢
Trump announces withdrawal of U.S. troops from Warsaw Pact country before July?Won
No$1.0k @ 62.6¢
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?Lost
Yes$802 @ 17.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Science	No	$2.7k	61.8¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	Science	No	$2.1k	78.9¢
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$991	52.7¢
Surigae makes landfall in Japan?	Science	No	$985	81.3¢
Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?	Science	Yes	$919	75.2¢
Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Politics	No	$720	68.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$671	78.4¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	Yes	$610	63.4¢
Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.90 in September?	Economy	No	$607	91.6¢
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	Economy	No	$567	89.0¢
Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$566	84.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$560	18.7¢
Will there be between 10 and 15 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$346	89.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$296	74.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$280	28.0¢
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Geopolitics	No	$259	89.4¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Geopolitics	No	$209	76.6¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Geopolitics	Yes	$142	17.5¢
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?	Economy	No	$137	78.3¢
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?	Politics	No	$125	9.3¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Geopolitics	Yes	$115	17.5¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Geopolitics	Yes	$107	17.5¢
Will there be no hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?	Science	Yes	$76	5.8¢
Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$63	23.7¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Isaias?	Science	Yes	$52	3.9¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Kyle?	Science	Yes	$52	3.6¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Josephine?	Science	Yes	$50	3.7¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Hanna?	Science	Yes	$50	4.0¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Leah?	Science	Yes	$49	3.8¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Sally?	Science	Yes	$48	4.2¢

Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Science
No$2.7k @ 61.8¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?Science
No$2.1k @ 78.9¢
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$991 @ 52.7¢
Surigae makes landfall in Japan?Science
No$985 @ 81.3¢
Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?Science
Yes$919 @ 75.2¢
Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Politics
No$720 @ 68.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$671 @ 78.4¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
Yes$610 @ 63.4¢
Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.90 in September?Economy
No$607 @ 91.6¢
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?Economy
No$567 @ 89.0¢
Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$566 @ 84.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$560 @ 18.7¢
Will there be between 10 and 15 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Geopolitics
No$346 @ 89.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
Yes$296 @ 74.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$280 @ 28.0¢
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Geopolitics
No$259 @ 89.4¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Geopolitics
No$209 @ 76.6¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Geopolitics
Yes$142 @ 17.5¢
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?Economy
No$137 @ 78.3¢
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?Politics
No$125 @ 9.3¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Geopolitics
Yes$115 @ 17.5¢
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Geopolitics
Yes$107 @ 17.5¢
Will there be no hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?Science
Yes$76 @ 5.8¢
Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$63 @ 23.7¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Isaias?Science
Yes$52 @ 3.9¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Kyle?Science
Yes$52 @ 3.6¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Josephine?Science
Yes$50 @ 3.7¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Hanna?Science
Yes$50 @ 4.0¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Leah?Science
Yes$49 @ 3.8¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Sally?Science
Yes$48 @ 4.2¢