0xf28d…b24b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf28dc9a9a142ffb50522a28d5956bd880b29b24b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.2pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

17% @ 11.3¢

Brier

0.103

Resolved

2755

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	50% (61/123)	+70%	123
Other	32% (26/82)	-54%	82
Science	52% (16/31)	-18%	31
Sports	79% (11/14)	-2%	14
Tech	33% (3/9)	-3%	9
Geopolitics	50% (4/8)	-3%	8
Economy	50% (1/2)	+8%	2
Culture	50% (1/2)	-1%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-2%	2

Politics123 bets
Hit rate
50% (61/123)
ROI
+70%
Other82 bets
Hit rate
32% (26/82)
ROI
-54%
Science31 bets
Hit rate
52% (16/31)
ROI
-18%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
79% (11/14)
ROI
-2%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-3%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-3%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+8%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-1%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-2%

Track record

45% hit · 124/273

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Ben James lead the 2026 World Wide Technology Championship following the third round?	Yes	$200	99.9¢	Won
Temple vs. Navy: O/U 55.5	Over	$50	99.9¢	Won
AJ Auxerre vs. Paris FC: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	Under	$197	99.9¢	Won
AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Over	$26	99.9¢	Won
Will Republicans win less than 8% of the Black vote?	No	$138	99.9¢	Won
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	No	$156	99.9¢	Won
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	Yes	$200	99.9¢	Won
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	Yes	$200	99.9¢	Won
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	No	$156	99.9¢	Won
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	No	$39	99.9¢	Won
Will Fernando Alonso get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	No	$105	99.9¢	Won
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	Yes	$26	99.9¢	Lost
Will Trudy peak at Category 4?	No	$4	27.0¢	Won
Will Trudy peak at Category 4?	Yes	$40	45.8¢	Lost
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?	Yes	$120	0.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?	No	$6	6.2¢	Lost
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?	Yes	$45	0.3¢	Lost
DNC open convention?	Yes	$31	19.2¢	Lost
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$32	11.0¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	$3	75.0¢	Won
Super Bowl LIX Winner	Eagles	$10	49.0¢	Won
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	Yes	$42	17.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 27?	No	$2	33.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 27?	Yes	$4	68.0¢	Lost
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	$5	75.2¢	Won
Will William Contreras win the 2026 World Series MVP?	No	$25	64.8¢	Lost
Will William Contreras win the 2026 World Series MVP?	Yes	$14	35.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	$3	75.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "fraud" at debate?	No	$3	45.0¢	Lost
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?	No	$6	11.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$824	16.7¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$251	85.8¢	Lost
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?	Yes	$8	0.4¢	Lost
Will Kamala say "Artificial Intelligence" at debate?	No	$5	66.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	$15	15.3¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	$87	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview?	No	$5	38.0¢	Won
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?	Yes	$95	0.2¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?	Yes	$177	0.3¢	Lost
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	12.0¢	Lost
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Yes	$11	14.6¢	Lost
Will Kamala say "not going back" at debate?	No	$3	34.0¢	Lost
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?	Yes	$40	0.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	$4	51.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	17.5¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?	Yes	$16	3.4¢	Lost
Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	No	$77	52.5¢	Lost
Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	$16	78.0¢	Lost
Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	$5	23.0¢	Won
Will Trudy peak at Category 3?	No	$160	63.4¢	Lost

Will Ben James lead the 2026 World Wide Technology Championship following the third round?Won
Yes$200 @ 99.9¢
Temple vs. Navy: O/U 55.5Won
Over$50 @ 99.9¢
AJ Auxerre vs. Paris FC: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total CornersWon
Under$197 @ 99.9¢
AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total CornersWon
Over$26 @ 99.9¢
Will Republicans win less than 8% of the Black vote?Won
No$138 @ 99.9¢
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 American League MVP Award?Won
No$156 @ 99.9¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?Won
Yes$200 @ 99.9¢
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Won
Yes$200 @ 99.9¢
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Won
No$156 @ 99.9¢
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Won
No$39 @ 99.9¢
Will Fernando Alonso get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Won
No$105 @ 99.9¢
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$26 @ 99.9¢
Will Trudy peak at Category 4?Won
No$4 @ 27.0¢
Will Trudy peak at Category 4?Lost
Yes$40 @ 45.8¢
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$120 @ 0.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Lost
No$6 @ 6.2¢
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Lost
Yes$45 @ 0.3¢
DNC open convention?Lost
Yes$31 @ 19.2¢
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
No$32 @ 11.0¢
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 75.0¢
Super Bowl LIX WinnerWon
Eagles$10 @ 49.0¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Won
Yes$42 @ 17.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 27?Won
No$2 @ 33.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 27?Lost
Yes$4 @ 68.0¢
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 75.2¢
Will William Contreras win the 2026 World Series MVP?Lost
No$25 @ 64.8¢
Will William Contreras win the 2026 World Series MVP?Won
Yes$14 @ 35.3¢
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump say "fraud" at debate?Lost
No$3 @ 45.0¢
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 11.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$824 @ 16.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$251 @ 85.8¢
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.4¢
Will Kamala say "Artificial Intelligence" at debate?Lost
No$5 @ 66.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Lost
No$15 @ 15.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Won
Yes$87 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview?Won
No$5 @ 38.0¢
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?Lost
Yes$95 @ 0.2¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?Lost
Yes$177 @ 0.3¢
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 12.0¢
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Lost
Yes$11 @ 14.6¢
Will Kamala say "not going back" at debate?Lost
No$3 @ 34.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Lost
Yes$40 @ 0.8¢
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 51.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.5¢
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?Lost
Yes$16 @ 3.4¢
Will Isaias peak at Category 3?Lost
No$77 @ 52.5¢
Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Lost
No$16 @ 78.0¢
Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
Will Trudy peak at Category 3?Lost
No$160 @ 63.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	Sports	Yes	$200	99.9¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	Geopolitics	Yes	$200	99.9¢
Will Ben James lead the 2026 World Wide Technology Championship following the third round?	Sports	Yes	$200	99.9¢
AJ Auxerre vs. Paris FC: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners	—	Under	$197	99.9¢
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Sports	No	$156	99.9¢
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	Sports	No	$156	99.9¢
Will Republicans win less than 8% of the Black vote?	Politics	No	$138	99.9¢
Will Fernando Alonso get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	Sports	No	$105	99.9¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?	Science	Yes	$55	55.1¢
Temple vs. Navy: O/U 55.5	Sports	Over	$50	99.9¢
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	Sports	No	$39	99.9¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Science	No	$30	73.2¢
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	Science	Yes	$29	65.0¢
AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Sports	Over	$26	99.9¢
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	Sports	Yes	$26	99.9¢
Will the next hurricane form between November 7 and November 11, 2026?	Science	Yes	$21	49.7¢
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$10	4.7¢
Will no hurricane form by November 30, 2026?	Science	Yes	$7	47.0¢
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	12.2¢
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	33.6¢
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	17.5¢
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$4	0.1¢
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	16.6¢
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	14.4¢
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Politics	No	$4	18.2¢
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Politics	No	$4	18.8¢
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	1.0¢
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?	—	Yes	$1	1.2¢

Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Sports
Yes$200 @ 99.9¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?Geopolitics
Yes$200 @ 99.9¢
Will Ben James lead the 2026 World Wide Technology Championship following the third round?Sports
Yes$200 @ 99.9¢
AJ Auxerre vs. Paris FC: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners—
Under$197 @ 99.9¢
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 American League MVP Award?Sports
No$156 @ 99.9¢
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Sports
No$156 @ 99.9¢
Will Republicans win less than 8% of the Black vote?Politics
No$138 @ 99.9¢
Will Fernando Alonso get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Sports
No$105 @ 99.9¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?Science
Yes$55 @ 55.1¢
Temple vs. Navy: O/U 55.5Sports
Over$50 @ 99.9¢
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Sports
No$39 @ 99.9¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?Science
No$30 @ 73.2¢
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?Science
Yes$29 @ 65.0¢
AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total CornersSports
Over$26 @ 99.9¢
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?Sports
Yes$26 @ 99.9¢
Will the next hurricane form between November 7 and November 11, 2026?Science
Yes$21 @ 49.7¢
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
Yes$10 @ 4.7¢
Will no hurricane form by November 30, 2026?Science
Yes$7 @ 47.0¢
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 12.2¢
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 33.6¢
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 17.5¢
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 16.6¢
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 14.4¢
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 18.2¢
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 18.8¢
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?—
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢