0xf26c…d5c5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf26cb3076afc6c6644d882a92fe44584538bd5c5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.7pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

50% @ 36.3¢

Brier

0.197

Resolved

124

Avg size

$15

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	36% (9/25)	+21%	25
Other	53% (10/19)	+20%	19

Politics25 bets
Hit rate
36% (9/25)
ROI
+21%
Other19 bets
Hit rate
53% (10/19)
ROI
+20%

Track record

43% hit · 19/44

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will PAM get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	$3	5.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$25	1.6¢	Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Over	$7	13.0¢	Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Under	$58	57.0¢	Won
Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	No	$6	9.1¢	Lost
Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	$83	79.6¢	Won
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$17	21.8¢	Won
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%?	No	$16	80.0¢	Won
Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?	Yes	$57	77.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$124	77.4¢	Won
Will RNI win the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Yes	$5	1.8¢	Lost
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	No	$86	85.0¢	Lost
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$62	23.4¢	Won
Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$85	84.7¢	Won
Will John Beccia be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$190	33.4¢	Lost
Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$109	53.6¢	Lost
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$3	2.2¢	Lost
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	No	$29	29.1¢	Won
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	$231	62.2¢	Won
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	$25	16.6¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$33	81.0¢	Won
Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?	No	$17	60.0¢	Won
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 15–20%?	No	$61	67.5¢	Won
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	$38	22.9¢	Lost
Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	No	$10	6.3¢	Lost
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?	Yes	$45	46.9¢	Lost
Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$17	17.6¢	Lost
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	$11	37.0¢	Lost
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	No	$25	24.1¢	Won
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$23	89.0¢	Lost
Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	$11	8.7¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	33.8¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	$3	30.0¢	Lost
Will the Green Party (MP) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	$8	77.0¢	Won
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	No	$10	7.5¢	Lost
Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Lost
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	No	$76	44.9¢	Won
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?	No	$15	85.0¢	Won
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	$12	11.8¢	Lost
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	Yes	$65	80.5¢	Won
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	Yes	$64	25.1¢	Won
Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	No	$9	3.0¢	Lost

Will PAM get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$25 @ 1.6¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Lost
Over$7 @ 13.0¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Won
Under$58 @ 57.0¢
Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?Lost
No$6 @ 9.1¢
Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?Won
Yes$83 @ 79.6¢
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$17 @ 21.8¢
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%?Won
No$16 @ 80.0¢
Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?Won
Yes$57 @ 77.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$124 @ 77.4¢
Will RNI win the next Moroccan legislative elections?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.8¢
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$86 @ 85.0¢
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$62 @ 23.4¢
Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?Won
Yes$85 @ 84.7¢
Will John Beccia be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$190 @ 33.4¢
Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
No$109 @ 53.6¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.2¢
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Won
No$29 @ 29.1¢
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Won
Yes$231 @ 62.2¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$25 @ 16.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$33 @ 81.0¢
Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?Won
No$17 @ 60.0¢
Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 15–20%?Won
No$61 @ 67.5¢
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$38 @ 22.9¢
Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?Lost
No$10 @ 6.3¢
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?Lost
Yes$45 @ 46.9¢
Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.6¢
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$11 @ 37.0¢
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$25 @ 24.1¢
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$23 @ 89.0¢
Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?Lost
Yes$11 @ 8.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 33.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Lost
No$3 @ 30.0¢
Will the Green Party (MP) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Won
No$8 @ 77.0¢
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?Lost
No$10 @ 7.5¢
Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?Won
No$76 @ 44.9¢
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?Won
No$15 @ 85.0¢
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?Lost
Yes$12 @ 11.8¢
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?Won
Yes$65 @ 80.5¢
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Won
Yes$64 @ 25.1¢
Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?Lost
No$9 @ 3.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$285	57.0¢
Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$128	85.0¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$125	83.0¢
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?	Tech	No	$99	78.8¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$76	21.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$72	72.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$62	62.0¢
Will PJD get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Politics	No	$55	55.2¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$53	17.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$48	69.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$46	23.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Politics	No	$40	40.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$33	33.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$33	66.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$31	3.8¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30	20.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$30	60.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$29	58.8¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$27	7.9¢
Will Mohamed Chaouki be the next Prime Minister of Morocco?	—	No	$25	90.0¢
Will PJD get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?	Politics	Yes	$25	30.8¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$25	49.0¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$24	47.0¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$17	68.0¢
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	—	Yes	$17	21.8¢
Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	—	Yes	$17	17.6¢
Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$17	10.4¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$17	16.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$16	16.0¢
Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?	Politics	Yes	$15	19.0¢

Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$285 @ 57.0¢
Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$128 @ 85.0¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$125 @ 83.0¢
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Tech
No$99 @ 78.8¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$76 @ 21.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
No$62 @ 62.0¢
Will PJD get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?Politics
No$55 @ 55.2¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$53 @ 17.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$48 @ 69.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$46 @ 23.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?Politics
No$40 @ 40.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$33 @ 33.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$33 @ 66.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$31 @ 3.8¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$30 @ 20.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 60.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$29 @ 58.8¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$27 @ 7.9¢
Will Mohamed Chaouki be the next Prime Minister of Morocco?—
No$25 @ 90.0¢
Will PJD get the third-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?Politics
Yes$25 @ 30.8¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$25 @ 49.0¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
Yes$24 @ 47.0¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$17 @ 68.0¢
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?—
Yes$17 @ 21.8¢
Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?—
Yes$17 @ 17.6¢
Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$17 @ 10.4¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$17 @ 16.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$16 @ 16.0¢
Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?Politics
Yes$15 @ 19.0¢