0xf18f…294c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf18f338022da2ee5d6e71d7df69095ce5645294c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+4.7pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

23% @ 18.6¢

Brier

0.118

Resolved

2050

Avg size

$56

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	30% (90/300)	+2%	300
Politics	33% (9/27)	+73%	27
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other300 bets
Hit rate
30% (90/300)
ROI
+2%
Politics27 bets
Hit rate
33% (9/27)
ROI
+73%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

30% hit · 99/332

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Ethereum dip to $2,750 by January 31?	Yes	$110	11.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?	Yes	$37	1.1¢	Lost
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?	No	$35	3.2¢	Lost
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Yes	$94	75.0¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$171	23.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tariff" during Fort Bragg remarks on June 10?	Yes	$5	39.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Iran in April?	Yes	$168	7.4¢	Lost
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
US bank failure before December?	Yes	$737	14.7¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$153	58.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 1.5	Over	$33	86.0¢	Lost
US bank failure by March 31?	Yes	$8	31.4¢	Won
Will Biden say "Folks" three or more times during drop out speech?	Yes	$41	24.4¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Erdoğan out in 2025?	Yes	$622	10.7¢	Lost
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	Yes	$16	15.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Marco / Rubio" this week?	Yes	$33	47.6¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
US bank failure by October 31?	Yes	$730	10.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "drill baby drill" during Michigan town hall?	Yes	$15	56.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?	Yes	$91	7.3¢	Lost
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?	Yes	$247	24.7¢	Won
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will JD Vance say "rig" or "rigged" during the debate?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Super Bowl LIX Winner	Chiefs	$42	50.6¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?	Yes	$3	5.3¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?	Yes	$17	20.2¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?	Yes	$8	12.9¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?	Yes	$46	37.0¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$51	54.2¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$138	27.5¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$318	25.4¢	Won
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Hannity town hall?	No	$32	49.2¢	Lost
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?	Yes	$24	3.2¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	No	$138	32.0¢	Lost
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record?	Yes	$430	31.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Fox News Oval Office interview?	Yes	$112	28.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?	Yes	$8	27.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during his meeting with the NATO Secretary General?	Yes	$1	27.0¢	Won
US bank failure in February?	Yes	$462	13.9¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	Yes	$234	46.7¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$663	10.2¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?	Yes	$13	2.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?	Yes	$2.8k	56.1¢	Lost
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Yes	$194	0.1¢	Lost
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on June 1, 2024?	No	$500	3.6¢	Lost
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Democratic	$1.1k	42.4¢	Lost
Kamala Harris divorce in 2025?	Yes	$352	14.1¢	Lost

Will Ethereum dip to $2,750 by January 31?Lost
Yes$110 @ 11.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?Lost
Yes$37 @ 1.1¢
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?Lost
No$35 @ 3.2¢
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Lost
Yes$94 @ 75.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$171 @ 23.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" during Fort Bragg remarks on June 10?Lost
Yes$5 @ 39.0¢
Israel military action against Iran in April?Lost
Yes$168 @ 7.4¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
US bank failure before December?Lost
Yes$737 @ 14.7¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$153 @ 58.0¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 1.5Lost
Over$33 @ 86.0¢
US bank failure by March 31?Won
Yes$8 @ 31.4¢
Will Biden say "Folks" three or more times during drop out speech?Lost
Yes$41 @ 24.4¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
Erdoğan out in 2025?Lost
Yes$622 @ 10.7¢
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Lost
Yes$16 @ 15.9¢
Will Trump say "Marco / Rubio" this week?Lost
Yes$33 @ 47.6¢
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
US bank failure by October 31?Won
Yes$730 @ 10.9¢
Will Donald Trump say "drill baby drill" during Michigan town hall?Lost
Yes$15 @ 56.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Lost
Yes$91 @ 7.3¢
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?Won
Yes$247 @ 24.7¢
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will JD Vance say "rig" or "rigged" during the debate?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Super Bowl LIX WinnerLost
Chiefs$42 @ 50.6¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.3¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?Lost
Yes$17 @ 20.2¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?Lost
Yes$8 @ 12.9¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?Lost
Yes$46 @ 37.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$51 @ 54.2¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$138 @ 27.5¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$318 @ 25.4¢
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Hannity town hall?Lost
No$32 @ 49.2¢
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?Lost
Yes$24 @ 3.2¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Lost
No$138 @ 32.0¢
Will Speed break the 24h backflip world record? Lost
Yes$430 @ 31.5¢
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Fox News Oval Office interview?Lost
Yes$112 @ 28.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 27.0¢
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during his meeting with the NATO Secretary General?Won
Yes$1 @ 27.0¢
US bank failure in February?Lost
Yes$462 @ 13.9¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Lost
Yes$234 @ 46.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$663 @ 10.2¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?Lost
Yes$13 @ 2.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 56.1¢
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$194 @ 0.1¢
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Joe Biden be President of the United States on June 1, 2024?Lost
No$500 @ 3.6¢
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Democratic$1.1k @ 42.4¢
Kamala Harris divorce in 2025?Lost
Yes$352 @ 14.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	7.5¢
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.1k	21.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	No	$563	22.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$554	44.4¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$390	31.2¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$384	30.7¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$375	7.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$365	24.3¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$354	20.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$330	13.2¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$311	12.3¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$250	10.0¢
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$211	16.8¢
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$128	10.2¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$124	9.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$123	24.7¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$105	21.0¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?	Politics	Yes	$64	25.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$58	62.0¢
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$57	22.8¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	Tech	Yes	$48	12.8¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$38	15.4¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$16	27.0¢
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16	25.0¢
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	12.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?	Tech	Yes	$9	3.6¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$3	18.0¢
Will Lara Trump be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.1¢

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 7.5¢
Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboGeopolitics
Yes$1.1k @ 21.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
No$563 @ 22.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$554 @ 44.4¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$390 @ 31.2¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$384 @ 30.7¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$375 @ 7.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$365 @ 24.3¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$354 @ 20.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$330 @ 13.2¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Politics
Yes$311 @ 12.3¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$250 @ 10.0¢
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$211 @ 16.8¢
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?Politics
Yes$128 @ 10.2¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Politics
Yes$124 @ 9.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$123 @ 24.7¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$105 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?Politics
Yes$64 @ 25.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$58 @ 62.0¢
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$57 @ 22.8¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?Tech
Yes$48 @ 12.8¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$38 @ 15.4¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
Yes$16 @ 27.0¢
FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$16 @ 25.0¢
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 12.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?Tech
Yes$9 @ 3.6¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$3 @ 18.0¢
Will Lara Trump be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by September 30?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢