0xf155…76bd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf1554a6292c37db1cd007102b0f55bd7e7ac76bd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.2pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

83% @ 70.1¢

Brier

0.127

Resolved

628

Avg size

$763

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	70% (87/125)	+12%	125
Politics	86% (37/43)	+16%	43
Geopolitics	90% (9/10)	+17%	10
Sports	25% (1/4)	+38%	4
Tech	67% (2/3)	-76%	3

Other125 bets
Hit rate
70% (87/125)
ROI
+12%
Politics43 bets
Hit rate
86% (37/43)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
90% (9/10)
ROI
+17%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+38%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-76%

Track record

74% hit · 136/185

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?	No	$2.7k	57.8¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$17.3k	85.8¢	Won
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?	No	$587	86.5¢	Won
Hornets vs. Jazz	Hornets	$637	64.0¢	Won
Heat vs. Pacers	Heat	$361	69.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$3.1k	66.1¢	Won
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3)	Legacy	$790	73.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$23	61.0¢	Won
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses (BO3)	Evil Geniuses	$217	52.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$206	41.0¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$238	66.8¢	Won
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	$693	73.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$42.0k	66.9¢	Won
Will JD Vance be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	$2.7k	65.2¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$140	84.0¢	Won
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	No	$340	71.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	17.6¢	Won
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Passion UA (BO3)	Passion UA	$330	52.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	$844	84.4¢	Lost
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5)	Riyadh Falcons	$60	58.6¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$315	76.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$21.9k	86.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?	No	$405	81.0¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	No	$264	90.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Michigan remarks?	Yes	$52	84.0¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$255	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	$12.9k	88.0¢	Won
ASB Classic: Hamad Medjedovic vs Jakub Mensik	Mensik	$126	57.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Won
Bulls vs. Rockets	Rockets	$5.0k	82.1¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$2.7k	89.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	$367	77.0¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	No	$277	76.8¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	32.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?	No	$106	88.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	$127	67.0¢	Won
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3)	Invictus Gaming	$110	54.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29)	Yes	$145	24.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	25.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$1000	83.0¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?	No	$232	78.7¢	Won
Adelaide International: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rinky Hijikata	Fokina	$861	70.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$103	10.7¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $105,000 on July 1?	Yes	$464	89.8¢	Won
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	$52	32.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?	Yes	$500	5.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$5.1k	55.9¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?	No	$622	77.0¢	Won
Will Meta acquire TikTok?	No	$135	85.2¢	Won

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?Won
No$2.7k @ 57.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$17.3k @ 85.8¢
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Won
No$587 @ 86.5¢
Hornets vs. JazzWon
Hornets$637 @ 64.0¢
Heat vs. PacersLost
Heat$361 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$3.1k @ 66.1¢
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3)Won
Legacy$790 @ 73.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$23 @ 61.0¢
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses (BO3)Lost
Evil Geniuses$217 @ 52.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$206 @ 41.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$238 @ 66.8¢
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?Won
No$693 @ 73.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$42.0k @ 66.9¢
Will JD Vance be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$2.7k @ 65.2¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$140 @ 84.0¢
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?Won
No$340 @ 71.5¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 17.6¢
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Passion UA (BO3)Lost
Passion UA$330 @ 52.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$844 @ 84.4¢
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5)Won
Riyadh Falcons$60 @ 58.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$315 @ 76.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$21.9k @ 86.7¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?Won
No$405 @ 81.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?Won
No$264 @ 90.0¢
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Michigan remarks?Won
Yes$52 @ 84.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$255 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
No$12.9k @ 88.0¢
ASB Classic: Hamad Medjedovic vs Jakub MensikWon
Mensik$126 @ 57.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Won
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
Bulls vs. RocketsWon
Rockets$5.0k @ 82.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$2.7k @ 89.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
No$367 @ 77.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Won
No$277 @ 76.8¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 32.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?Won
No$106 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?Won
No$127 @ 67.0¢
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3)Lost
Invictus Gaming$110 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29)Lost
Yes$145 @ 24.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 25.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$1000 @ 83.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?Won
No$232 @ 78.7¢
Adelaide International: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rinky HijikataWon
Fokina$861 @ 70.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$103 @ 10.7¢
Bitcoin above $105,000 on July 1?Won
Yes$464 @ 89.8¢
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?Lost
Yes$52 @ 32.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$500 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$5.1k @ 55.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?Won
No$622 @ 77.0¢
Will Meta acquire TikTok?Won
No$135 @ 85.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-01 House seat?	Politics	No	$500	87.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-21 House seat?	Politics	No	$400	90.0¢
Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$400	97.1¢
Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$300	94.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$300	95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$300	92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat?	Politics	No	$300	89.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?	Politics	No	$200	90.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?	Politics	No	$200	95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?	Politics	No	$200	87.0¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$79	98.1¢

Will the Democratic Party win the MI-01 House seat?Politics
No$500 @ 87.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-21 House seat?Politics
No$400 @ 90.0¢
Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$400 @ 97.1¢
Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$300 @ 94.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$300 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$300 @ 92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat?Politics
No$300 @ 89.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?Politics
No$200 @ 90.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?Politics
No$200 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?Politics
No$200 @ 87.0¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$79 @ 98.1¢