0xf08c…91e9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf08c827f8bccc70f51686be5538611fa696a91e9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.7pp

ROI

+43%

Win rate

50% @ 34.9¢

Brier

0.193

Resolved

625

Avg size

$25

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (29/52)	+2%	52
Tech	57% (16/28)	+112%	28
Sports	41% (7/17)	+71%	17
Politics	47% (8/17)	-1%	17
Crypto	57% (4/7)	+22%	7
Culture	100% (2/2)	+93%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other52 bets
Hit rate
56% (29/52)
ROI
+2%
Tech28 bets
Hit rate
57% (16/28)
ROI
+112%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
41% (7/17)
ROI
+71%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
ROI
-1%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+22%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+93%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

53% hit · 66/124

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$578	72.7¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	No	$16	39.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$131	68.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group A	Team Orange Gaming	$10	51.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$339	75.2¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$170	85.0¢	Won
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	Yes	$74	52.9¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	$27	11.6¢	Won
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5)	Dplus KIA	$68	51.7¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$196	16.9¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$478	29.5¢	Lost
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?	Over	$10	59.0¢	Lost
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$17	2.4¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	$49	34.0¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	No	$216	19.1¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	No	$79	86.4¢	Won
Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs	PARIVISION	$10	59.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$750	81.0¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	No	$371	30.8¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$20	50.0¢	Won
Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja Chwalinska	Maja Chwalinska	$10	47.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	Yes	$20	9.9¢	Lost
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik	Jakub Mensik	$32	25.8¢	Won
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	$100	62.5¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	No	$35	24.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$102	68.3¢	Won
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	$52	64.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$258	80.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	9.7¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?	No	$38	47.2¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$17	31.2¢	Lost
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$237	22.9¢	Won
LoL: G2 NORD vs Eintracht Frankfurt - Game 1 Winner	G2 NORD	$10	50.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$609	78.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$59	59.0¢	Lost
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Shelton	Ben Shelton	$10	44.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	$312	74.2¢	Won
Canadiens vs. Sabres	Sabres	$34	24.0¢	Lost
Oeiras 4: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith	Jurij Rodionov	$10	47.3¢	Lost
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$26	1.7¢	Lost
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$87	78.0¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026	No	$25	49.8¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026	Yes	$298	49.7¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	$140	69.8¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	No	$105	86.0¢	Won
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season	Supernova	$15	54.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	No	$10	60.0¢	Lost
Grok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?	No	$289	36.4¢	Lost
Will Kiambo White be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?	Yes	$1	6.7¢	Lost

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$578 @ 72.7¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?Won
No$16 @ 39.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$131 @ 68.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group AWon
Team Orange Gaming$10 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$339 @ 75.2¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$170 @ 85.0¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?Won
Yes$74 @ 52.9¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Won
No$27 @ 11.6¢
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5)Lost
Dplus KIA$68 @ 51.7¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$196 @ 16.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$478 @ 29.5¢
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?Lost
Over$10 @ 59.0¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?Lost
Yes$17 @ 2.4¢
Knicks vs. SpursWon
Knicks$49 @ 34.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Lost
No$216 @ 19.1¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Won
No$79 @ 86.4¢
Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence PlayoffsWon
PARIVISION$10 @ 59.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$750 @ 81.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Lost
No$371 @ 30.8¢
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$20 @ 50.0¢
Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Maja ChwalinskaLost
Maja Chwalinska$10 @ 47.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 9.9¢
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub MensikWon
Jakub Mensik$32 @ 25.8¢
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?Won
Yes$100 @ 62.5¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Lost
No$35 @ 24.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$102 @ 68.3¢
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?Won
Yes$52 @ 64.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$258 @ 80.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 9.7¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?Won
No$38 @ 47.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$17 @ 31.2¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$237 @ 22.9¢
LoL: G2 NORD vs Eintracht Frankfurt - Game 1 WinnerWon
G2 NORD$10 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$609 @ 78.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$59 @ 59.0¢
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben SheltonLost
Ben Shelton$10 @ 44.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Won
Yes$312 @ 74.2¢
Canadiens vs. SabresLost
Sabres$34 @ 24.0¢
Oeiras 4: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton SmithLost
Jurij Rodionov$10 @ 47.3¢
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?Lost
Yes$26 @ 1.7¢
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$87 @ 78.0¢
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
No$25 @ 49.8¢
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026Won
Yes$298 @ 49.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$140 @ 69.8¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Won
No$105 @ 86.0¢
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonWon
Supernova$15 @ 54.3¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 60.0¢
Grok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?Lost
No$289 @ 36.4¢
Will Kiambo White be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$150	18.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$61	14.7¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$51	17.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	16.0¢

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$150 @ 18.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$61 @ 14.7¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$51 @ 17.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 16.0¢