0xefde…783d

Specialization by sphere

• Politics155 bets

  Hit rate

  44% (68/155)

  ROI

  +57%

• Other117 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (59/117)

  ROI

  -13%

• Geopolitics46 bets

  Hit rate

  46% (21/46)

  ROI

  -23%

• Sports42 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (17/42)

  ROI

  +91%

• Tech16 bets

  Hit rate

  44% (7/16)

  ROI

  -37%

• Crypto5 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (3/5)

  ROI

  +101%

• Culture2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +50%

• Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during his remarks at Anduril Industries?Lost
  Yes$78 @ 63.0¢
• Will Trump say "Drone" during his remarks at Anduril Industries?Lost
  No$1 @ 20.0¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?Lost
  No$10 @ 35.0¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30?Lost
  No$39 @ 23.0¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Lost
  No$12 @ 47.0¢
• Will Trump say "Tax" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?Lost
  No$3 @ 56.0¢
• Will Trump say "Tractor" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?Lost
  No$61 @ 41.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$608 @ 76.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  No$258 @ 13.2¢
• Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Won
  No$374 @ 93.5¢
• Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
  No$27 @ 47.0¢
• Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Lost
  Yes$187 @ 24.0¢
• Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Won
  Yes$540 @ 36.0¢
• Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
  No$330 @ 33.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$320 @ 8.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$897 @ 79.3¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
  No$3.0k @ 50.8¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$2.1k @ 65.3¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
  No$828 @ 69.0¢
• Iran leadership change by September 30?Won
  No$1.1k @ 89.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
  No$422 @ 84.0¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$2.9k @ 29.3¢
• Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?Won
  No$7 @ 28.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.5k @ 58.9¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$16.7k @ 23.2¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$267 @ 60.0¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
  Yes$250 @ 50.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
  No$285 @ 19.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
  No$2.1k @ 53.2¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
  Yes$71 @ 54.7¢
• Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Lost
  Yes$360 @ 20.0¢
• Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
  No$930 @ 50.7¢
• Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Lost
  Yes$829 @ 63.8¢
• Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
  Yes$301 @ 42.2¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$3.1k @ 74.0¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
  Yes$448 @ 15.8¢
• Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$74 @ 23.0¢
• Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09?Won
  Yes$318 @ 63.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
  Yes$729 @ 51.0¢
• Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana PlayoffsLost
  9z$314 @ 62.0¢
• Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Won
  Yes$290 @ 72.0¢
• Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$290 @ 5.8¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$680 @ 68.0¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
  Yes$347 @ 31.0¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
  No$1.0k @ 57.7¢
• Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Won
  No$236 @ 59.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
  No$267 @ 29.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 71.6¢
• Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 65.6¢
• Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-09?Lost
  No$17 @ 51.0¢

Current positions

• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$1.3k @ 64.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.3k @ 50.4¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 57.7¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  No$830 @ 83.0¢
• Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?Sports
  Yes$540 @ 27.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Politics
  No$522 @ 87.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$504 @ 84.0¢
• Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  No$478 @ 95.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$462 @ 77.0¢
• Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  No$460 @ 91.3¢
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?Tech
  Yes$444 @ 42.0¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
  No$430 @ 86.0¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$405 @ 81.0¢
• Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$400 @ 80.0¢
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?Tech
  No$320 @ 80.0¢
• Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech
  No$297 @ 74.3¢
• Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
  No$288 @ 36.0¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Tech
  Yes$268 @ 96.6¢
• Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Politics
  No$267 @ 53.3¢
• Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Politics
  Yes$240 @ 80.0¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$225 @ 15.0¢
• Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting by October 31?Tech
  No$208 @ 76.0¢
• Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in Texas?Politics
  No$172 @ 56.9¢
• Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
  Yes$135 @ 81.0¢
• Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 26M in October?Culture
  No$83 @ 91.0¢
• Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during his remarks at Anduril Industries?Politics
  Yes$78 @ 63.0¢
• Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 25M in October?Culture
  No$74 @ 82.0¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$74 @ 63.0¢
• Will Ronaldo post about Messi by October 7?Sports
  No$70 @ 70.0¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Politics
  No$66 @ 60.0¢