0xefdd…8370

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xefddc1d3285d0fe1b9f2aa06e04901f527a08370
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.6pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

44% @ 38.7¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

3262

Avg size

$28

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (85/177)	+27%	177
Politics	65% (82/126)	+5%	126
Geopolitics	63% (31/49)	-9%	49
Tech	52% (17/33)	+1%	33
Economy	33% (1/3)	-76%	3
Culture	100% (1/1)	+276%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other177 bets
Hit rate
48% (85/177)
ROI
+27%
Politics126 bets
Hit rate
65% (82/126)
ROI
+5%
Geopolitics49 bets
Hit rate
63% (31/49)
ROI
-9%
Tech33 bets
Hit rate
52% (17/33)
ROI
+1%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-76%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+276%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

56% hit · 217/390

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in September?	No	$347	84.7¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$194	12.8¢	Won
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$368	60.2¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$121	56.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$87	87.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$361	70.8¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	$303	21.6¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$260	75.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$2.3k	49.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$28	79.3¢	Won
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won
VEO 4 released by April 30, 2026?	No	$12	62.0¢	Won
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$76	79.5¢	Won
FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa?	No	$108	15.0¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$146	20.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$686	68.7¢	Won
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	No	$197	66.9¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	No	$613	8.4¢	Lost
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	$14	27.0¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$375	85.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$24	22.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$125	86.0¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$502	69.2¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$78	39.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$488	81.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	No	$6	70.0¢	Won
Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 7?	No	$0	11.6¢	Won
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$127	7.9¢	Lost
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	No	$124	66.7¢	Won
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	No	$385	71.8¢	Won
FDA approves Elevar Therapeutics' Rivoceranib + camrelizumab?	Yes	$22	5.4¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	No	$38	75.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$126	61.3¢	Won
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz?	Yes	$109	67.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$439	35.6¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	$95	43.3¢	Won
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$94	37.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	$271	50.4¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	No	$234	83.5¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$92	73.2¢	Won
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$105	10.8¢	Lost
Will the US House pass the Sunshine Protection Act by July 17?	Yes	$21	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$74	49.3¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$282	26.6¢	Won
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	$1.4k	9.3¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$81	23.0¢	Won
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	$184	73.4¢	Won

Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in September?Won
No$347 @ 84.7¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$194 @ 12.8¢
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$368 @ 60.2¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$121 @ 56.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$87 @ 87.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$361 @ 70.8¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
No$303 @ 21.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$260 @ 75.4¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 49.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$28 @ 79.3¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢
VEO 4 released by April 30, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 62.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$76 @ 79.5¢
FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa?Lost
No$108 @ 15.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$146 @ 20.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$686 @ 68.7¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Won
No$197 @ 66.9¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Lost
No$613 @ 8.4¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 27.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$375 @ 85.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$24 @ 22.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$125 @ 86.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$502 @ 69.2¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$78 @ 39.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$488 @ 81.3¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Won
No$6 @ 70.0¢
Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 7?Won
No$0 @ 11.6¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$127 @ 7.9¢
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?Won
No$124 @ 66.7¢
Kurds declare independence from Iran?Won
No$385 @ 71.8¢
FDA approves Elevar Therapeutics' Rivoceranib + camrelizumab?Lost
Yes$22 @ 5.4¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Won
No$38 @ 75.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$126 @ 61.3¢
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz?Lost
Yes$109 @ 67.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$439 @ 35.6¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
No$95 @ 43.3¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$94 @ 37.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$271 @ 50.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Won
No$234 @ 83.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$92 @ 73.2¢
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$105 @ 10.8¢
Will the US House pass the Sunshine Protection Act by July 17?Won
Yes$21 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$74 @ 49.3¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$282 @ 26.6¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1.4k @ 9.3¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$81 @ 23.0¢
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Won
No$184 @ 73.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Politics	Yes	$430	46.4¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	Economy	No	$389	34.7¢
Will the UK Budget include a wealth tax?	Politics	No	$271	81.0¢
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$256	84.1¢
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	Tech	No	$241	77.1¢
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026?	Politics	No	$219	50.0¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$165	35.3¢
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$163	31.5¢
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?	Politics	No	$77	71.1¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	No	$45	31.0¢
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by September 30?	Politics	No	$41	41.0¢
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$25	66.3¢
Will SB Energy IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$4	5.0¢
Will Serbia call its presidential election by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$0	25.0¢

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?Politics
Yes$430 @ 46.4¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?Economy
No$389 @ 34.7¢
Will the UK Budget include a wealth tax?Politics
No$271 @ 81.0¢
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$256 @ 84.1¢
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?Tech
No$241 @ 77.1¢
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026?Politics
No$219 @ 50.0¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$165 @ 35.3¢
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$163 @ 31.5¢
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Politics
No$77 @ 71.1¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
No$45 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by September 30?Politics
No$41 @ 41.0¢
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$25 @ 66.3¢
Will SB Energy IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$4 @ 5.0¢
Will Serbia call its presidential election by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$0 @ 25.0¢