0xefab…b927

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xefabdd6fe129b35f636e1f4966f57ac6d9f3b927
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.9pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

37% @ 34.5¢

Brier

0.132

Resolved

2163

Avg size

$31

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (127/309)	+3%	309
Politics	79% (11/14)	+63%	14
Sports	22% (2/9)	-38%	9
Geopolitics	100% (4/4)	+46%	4
Tech	50% (1/2)	-78%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other309 bets
Hit rate
41% (127/309)
ROI
+3%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
79% (11/14)
ROI
+63%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
22% (2/9)
ROI
-38%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+46%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-78%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 145/339

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	No	$894	74.4¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$706	58.9¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 82 and 83 million views on week 1?	Yes	$33	11.0¢	Lost
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	Yes	$46	23.0¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$172	86.0¢	Won
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$47	31.7¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	$651	76.6¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by March 31?	No	$891	42.4¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$1.1k	24.5¢	Lost
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?	No	$14	9.0¢	Lost
Will Bryn Kenney win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 4?	Yes	$335	27.9¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2?	Yes	$129	16.1¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?	Yes	$192	16.0¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	No	$142	71.0¢	Won
Will Justin Young win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$147	73.6¢	Won
Will Matt Berkey win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?	Yes	$8	12.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$41	20.5¢	Lost
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by >29%?	Yes	$18	17.5¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$46	46.0¢	Lost
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$12	8.2¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	$63	63.1¢	Won
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 67 and 68 million views on day 4?	Yes	$46	15.4¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$32	6.5¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?	No	$87	86.8¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	$15	5.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	No	$340	68.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$20	87.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	$26	17.0¢	Lost
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$31	10.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	No	$136	54.4¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$100	7.1¢	Lost
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?	No	$108	43.0¢	Won
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?	Yes	$143	57.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$75	74.3¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$46	13.0¢	Lost
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?	No	$599	74.9¢	Won
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10?	Yes	$17	20.9¢	Lost
Grokipedia released by October 31?	No	$8	16.0¢	Lost
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?	Yes	$4	6.9¢	Lost
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?	Yes	$23	15.0¢	Lost
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?	No	$228	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$268	67.0¢	Lost
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 18?	Yes	$246	81.9¢	Won
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-09?	Yes	$69	69.0¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$90	60.0¢	Won
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?	No	$52	88.3¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$65	32.6¢	Lost

Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Lost
No$894 @ 74.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$706 @ 58.9¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 82 and 83 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$33 @ 11.0¢
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Lost
Yes$46 @ 23.0¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$172 @ 86.0¢
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
No$47 @ 31.7¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$651 @ 76.6¢
TikTok sale announced by March 31?Lost
No$891 @ 42.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 24.5¢
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?Lost
No$14 @ 9.0¢
Will Bryn Kenney win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 4?Lost
Yes$335 @ 27.9¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2?Lost
Yes$129 @ 16.1¢
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?Lost
Yes$192 @ 16.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Won
No$142 @ 71.0¢
Will Justin Young win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$147 @ 73.6¢
Will Matt Berkey win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?Lost
Yes$8 @ 12.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$41 @ 20.5¢
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by >29%?Lost
Yes$18 @ 17.5¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$46 @ 46.0¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11?Lost
Yes$12 @ 8.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Won
No$63 @ 63.1¢
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 67 and 68 million views on day 4?Lost
Yes$46 @ 15.4¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$32 @ 6.5¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?Won
No$87 @ 86.8¢
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Won
No$340 @ 68.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$20 @ 87.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$26 @ 17.0¢
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
Yes$31 @ 10.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Won
No$136 @ 54.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$100 @ 7.1¢
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?Won
No$108 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?Lost
Yes$143 @ 57.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$75 @ 74.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$46 @ 13.0¢
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?Won
No$599 @ 74.9¢
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10?Lost
Yes$17 @ 20.9¢
Grokipedia released by October 31?Lost
No$8 @ 16.0¢
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.9¢
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?Lost
Yes$23 @ 15.0¢
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?Won
No$228 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$268 @ 67.0¢
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 18?Won
Yes$246 @ 81.9¢
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-09?Won
Yes$69 @ 69.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$90 @ 60.0¢
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?Won
No$52 @ 88.3¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$65 @ 32.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.3k	85.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$844	84.4¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$689	86.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$653	87.1¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Politics	No	$485	80.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$288	72.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$267	66.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$219	43.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$182	36.4¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$174	2.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$170	68.0¢
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$165	55.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$147	42.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$89	2.2¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$65	25.9¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$45	0.9¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$40	2.6¢

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.3k @ 85.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$844 @ 84.4¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
No$689 @ 86.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$653 @ 87.1¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics
No$485 @ 80.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$288 @ 72.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$267 @ 66.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$219 @ 43.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$182 @ 36.4¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$174 @ 2.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$170 @ 68.0¢
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$165 @ 55.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$147 @ 42.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$89 @ 2.2¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$65 @ 25.9¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$45 @ 0.9¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$40 @ 2.6¢