0xefa8…c82b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xefa89c6a4fee427f40b2ad7aebfea0c76c5bc82b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.1pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

40% @ 37.1¢

Brier

0.170

Resolved

1450

Avg size

$100

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (85/197)	+13%	197
Sports	13% (4/30)	-47%	30
Politics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other197 bets
Hit rate
43% (85/197)
ROI
+13%
Sports30 bets
Hit rate
13% (4/30)
ROI
-47%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 89/233

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?	Yes	$901	16.7¢	Lost
Will JD Vance say "Hitler" during the Joe Rogan podcast?	No	$407	47.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during NBC interview?	No	$57	38.0¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Knicks	Knicks	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?	Putin	$2.6k	62.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?	No	$330	58.9¢	Lost
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev	Alcaraz	$18	35.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "NYPD" during New York rally on October 27?	No	$26	52.0¢	Won
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Friday?	Yes	$57	29.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?	Yes	$1.0k	23.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?	Yes	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?	No	$17	12.0¢	Lost
Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	$91	2.8¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran before August?	Yes	$150	32.5¢	Lost
Will Hegseth say "Alcohol" during the interview?	No	$5	69.0¢	Won
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson?	Yes	$114	43.3¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	Yes	$1.9k	42.4¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	$35	23.0¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	$50	25.0¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election?	No	$141	15.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15?	Yes	$290	75.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?	No	$2.0k	76.5¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?	Yes	$914	51.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nazi" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29?	Yes	$161	42.6¢	Lost
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?	Yes	$794	5.9¢	Lost
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency?	Yes	$6.2k	48.9¢	Won
State wide recount in Presidential Election?	No	$123	60.1¢	Won
Will the Pacers beat the Knicks 4-3?	Yes	$60	12.0¢	Lost
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$57	22.1¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Nuggets	Thunder	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Pacers vs. Thunder	Pacers	$154	19.3¢	Lost
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?	Yes	$120	40.0¢	Lost
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Republican	$1.1k	57.6¢	Won
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?	No	$2.5k	79.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "McDonald's" on The Joe Rogan Experience?	No	$504	17.1¢	Lost
Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?	Yes	$257	37.4¢	Lost
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$34	2.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?	No	$22	22.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Iran in July?	Yes	$387	27.6¢	Lost
Will the Knicks beat the Pacers 4-2?	Yes	$22	23.0¢	Lost
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?	No	$348	58.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Elon" during NBC interview?	No	$104	52.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Russia" 5 or more times on The Joe Rogan Experience?	No	$78	25.2¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?	Yes	$1.9k	32.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22?	No	$188	18.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?	No	$79	37.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?	No	$62	69.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference?	No	$306	14.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?	Yes	$44	7.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?	No	$98	49.0¢	Won

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?Lost
Yes$901 @ 16.7¢
Will JD Vance say "Hitler" during the Joe Rogan podcast?Won
No$407 @ 47.5¢
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during NBC interview?Lost
No$57 @ 38.0¢
Spurs vs. KnicksLost
Knicks$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?Lost
Putin$2.6k @ 62.4¢
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Lost
No$330 @ 58.9¢
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevWon
Alcaraz$18 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump say "NYPD" during New York rally on October 27?Won
No$26 @ 52.0¢
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Friday?Won
Yes$57 @ 29.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 23.9¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Lost
No$17 @ 12.0¢
Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Lost
Yes$91 @ 2.8¢
Israel strikes Iran before August?Lost
Yes$150 @ 32.5¢
Will Hegseth say "Alcohol" during the interview?Won
No$5 @ 69.0¢
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson?Lost
Yes$114 @ 43.3¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 42.4¢
Knicks vs. SpursWon
Knicks$35 @ 23.0¢
Knicks vs. SpursLost
Spurs$50 @ 25.0¢
Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
No$141 @ 15.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15?Won
Yes$290 @ 75.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?Won
No$2.0k @ 76.5¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?Lost
Yes$914 @ 51.8¢
Will Trump say "Nazi" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29?Lost
Yes$161 @ 42.6¢
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$794 @ 5.9¢
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? Won
Yes$6.2k @ 48.9¢
State wide recount in Presidential Election? Won
No$123 @ 60.1¢
Will the Pacers beat the Knicks 4-3?Lost
Yes$60 @ 12.0¢
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$57 @ 22.1¢
Thunder vs. NuggetsLost
Thunder$1 @ 16.0¢
Pacers vs. ThunderLost
Pacers$154 @ 19.3¢
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Lost
Yes$120 @ 40.0¢
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?Won
Republican$1.1k @ 57.6¢
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?Lost
No$2.5k @ 79.8¢
Will Trump say "McDonald's" on The Joe Rogan Experience?Lost
No$504 @ 17.1¢
Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?Lost
Yes$257 @ 37.4¢
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$34 @ 2.2¢
Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called?Lost
No$22 @ 22.0¢
Israel military action against Iran in July?Lost
Yes$387 @ 27.6¢
Will the Knicks beat the Pacers 4-2?Lost
Yes$22 @ 23.0¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?Won
No$348 @ 58.0¢
Will Trump say "Elon" during NBC interview?Won
No$104 @ 52.6¢
Will Trump say "Russia" 5 or more times on The Joe Rogan Experience?Lost
No$78 @ 25.2¢
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 32.0¢
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22?Lost
No$188 @ 18.1¢
Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Lost
No$79 @ 37.6¢
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?Won
No$62 @ 69.7¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference?Lost
No$306 @ 14.5¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?Lost
Yes$44 @ 7.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Won
No$98 @ 49.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$230	46.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$108	18.2¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$72	14.3¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$34	1.7¢

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$230 @ 46.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$108 @ 18.2¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$72 @ 14.3¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$34 @ 1.7¢