0xef62…0179

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xef6278f3e13d4a516fbb14b0d7ad2649ce990179
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-10.0pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

23% @ 33.2¢

Brier

0.121

Resolved

371

Avg size

$105

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (15/35)	-5%	35
Politics	45% (9/20)	-23%	20
Crypto	57% (4/7)	-2%	7
Sports	33% (1/3)	+349%	3
Economy	33% (1/3)	+24%	3
Tech	100% (2/2)	+41%	2
Business	50% (1/2)	+30%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+42%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+12%	1

Other35 bets
Hit rate
43% (15/35)
ROI
-5%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
45% (9/20)
ROI
-23%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
-2%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+349%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+24%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+41%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+30%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+42%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%

Track record

47% hit · 35/74

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?	No	$419	97.2¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$49	80.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.7k	86.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$200	7.5¢	Lost
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$57	11.3¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$65	30.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$201	67.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	$267	89.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$38	3.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Percent" 15+ times during Michigan remarks?	No	$192	32.0¢	Lost
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	$11	68.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during Michigan remarks?	No	$53	74.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Forever" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	Yes	$96	64.0¢	Lost
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$40	7.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$516	61.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?	No	$220	55.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Michigan remarks?	No	$180	18.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$1.3k	31.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	No	$50	80.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$356	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?	No	$116	29.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	No	$241	71.6¢	Lost
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?	No	$120	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?	No	$196	28.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?	Yes	$3	73.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$600	23.3¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$1.8k	82.2¢	Lost
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?	Yes	$275	11.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	$45	48.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	$113	50.3¢	Lost
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	No	$347	86.9¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$2.5k	71.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$100	26.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Motor City" during Michigan remarks?	Yes	$84	42.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	Yes	$207	14.0¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$375	7.5¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$538	89.7¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	61.6¢	Won
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?	No	$147	8.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$386	63.5¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	66.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$1.9k	70.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31?	No	$176	70.2¢	Won
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	$2.1k	78.6¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	$596	18.6¢	Lost
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	$20	72.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Yes	$74	18.5¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	49.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nobody Like Him" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	No	$119	69.0¢	Won

Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?Won
No$419 @ 97.2¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$49 @ 80.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 86.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$200 @ 7.5¢
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$57 @ 11.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$65 @ 30.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$201 @ 67.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
No$267 @ 89.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$38 @ 3.9¢
Will Trump say "Percent" 15+ times during Michigan remarks?Lost
No$192 @ 32.0¢
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Won
No$11 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during Michigan remarks?Lost
No$53 @ 74.0¢
Will Trump say "Forever" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
Yes$96 @ 64.0¢
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$40 @ 7.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$516 @ 61.0¢
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?Won
No$220 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Michigan remarks?Lost
No$180 @ 18.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.3k @ 31.0¢
Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
No$50 @ 80.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$356 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?Won
No$116 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
No$241 @ 71.6¢
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$120 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?Lost
No$196 @ 28.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?Won
Yes$3 @ 73.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$600 @ 23.3¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 82.2¢
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?Lost
Yes$275 @ 11.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Won
No$45 @ 48.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Lost
Yes$113 @ 50.3¢
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?Won
No$347 @ 86.9¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 71.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 26.4¢
Will Trump say "Motor City" during Michigan remarks?Lost
Yes$84 @ 42.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$207 @ 14.0¢
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$375 @ 7.5¢
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$538 @ 89.7¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 61.6¢
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?Lost
No$147 @ 8.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$386 @ 63.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 66.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$1.9k @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31?Won
No$176 @ 70.2¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Won
No$2.1k @ 78.6¢
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?Lost
Yes$596 @ 18.6¢
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Won
Yes$20 @ 72.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?Lost
Yes$74 @ 18.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 49.5¢
Will Trump say "Nobody Like Him" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Won
No$119 @ 69.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$4.0k	87.2¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	60.1¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$1.2k	42.3¢
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$773	93.0¢
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$376	89.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$238	84.0¢
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.5T in 2026?	Crypto	No	$183	83.0¢
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.75T in 2026?	Crypto	No	$147	91.1¢
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 4T in 2026?	Crypto	No	$114	94.0¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$4.0k @ 87.2¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 60.1¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?Crypto
Yes$1.2k @ 42.3¢
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$773 @ 93.0¢
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Crypto
No$376 @ 89.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$238 @ 84.0¢
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.5T in 2026?Crypto
No$183 @ 83.0¢
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.75T in 2026?Crypto
No$147 @ 91.1¢
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 4T in 2026?Crypto
No$114 @ 94.0¢