0xef34…1d61

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xef340ebd9aae1b4dd825c3dff220b7272aa21d61
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+2.7pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

47% @ 44.8¢

Brier

0.184

Resolved

3502

Avg size

$13

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (802/1601)	+2%	1601
Sports	59% (50/85)	+13%	85
Crypto	70% (7/10)	+48%	10
Politics	25% (2/8)	-81%	8
Economy	50% (1/2)	+23%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+700%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+42%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+104%	1

Other1601 bets
Hit rate
50% (802/1601)
ROI
+2%
Sports85 bets
Hit rate
59% (50/85)
ROI
+13%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
70% (7/10)
ROI
+48%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-81%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+23%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+700%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+42%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+104%

Track record

51% hit · 865/1709

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump and Elon say "Paper Straw" during their Feb 18 interview?	No	$2	19.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4400 on August 18?	Yes	$5	10.0¢	Lost
Rams vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$301	64.1¢	Won
Texans vs. Titans	Texans	$20	78.8¢	Won
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?	No	$13	39.0¢	Lost
Benfica vs. Auckland City: 7+ Goals Scored?	No	$44	61.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	No	$161	86.8¢	Won
Titans vs. Giants	Titans	$44	44.0¢	Lost
Will Housecoin dip to $0.025 before June?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will Ousmane Dembélé score the most total goals in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?	No	$3	73.0¢	Won
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?	Yes	$29	71.5¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $90 in May?	Yes	$65	65.0¢	Won
Will XRP reach $3.20 in October?	No	$10	20.0¢	Won
Colts vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$11	56.5¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 6?	Yes	$42	42.0¢	Lost
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	No	$37	74.0¢	Lost
Will XRP reach $3.40 by February 28 2025?	No	$33	66.4¢	Won
Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)	Seahawks	$39	64.4¢	Won
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?	No	$28	55.0¢	Lost
Will Solana dip to $130 in November?	No	$31	62.0¢	Lost
49ers vs. Seahawks	49ers	$75	28.0¢	Lost
49ers vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$174	87.0¢	Won
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)	Colts	$5	49.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during his presser with Ireland PM?	No	$17	86.0¢	Won
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?	No	$8	76.0¢	Won
Spread: Rams (-11.5)	Rams	$30	50.3¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $185 in August?	Yes	$61	61.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	Yes	$11	36.0¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $130 in July?	No	$38	75.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$67	66.0¢	Won
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?	No	$6	30.0¢	Lost
Saints vs. Dolphins	Dolphins	$21	71.0¢	Won
Will XRP dip to $2.60 in August?	No	$110	73.0¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $140 in August?	No	$37	74.0¢	Won
Will Solana reach $275 in November?	No	$16	79.0¢	Won
Will Feyenoord vs. AC Milan end in a draw?	Yes	$3	25.0¢	Lost
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?	Yes	$29	57.2¢	Lost
Cardinals vs. Vikings	Vikings	$7	36.0¢	Won
Will Germany vs. France end in a draw?	No	$22	74.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August?	No	$108	54.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 75m-100m views on day 1?	No	$8	83.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on May 18 at 5 PM ET?	No	$1	82.0¢	Won
Google forced to sell Chrome?	No	$8	75.0¢	Won
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?	No	$37	73.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	90k	$9	15.0¢	Lost
Spread: Falcons (-3.5)	Falcons	$31	44.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?	Yes	$39	39.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	No	$50	84.0¢	Won
Buccaneers vs. Panthers	Panthers	$47	39.2¢	Won

Will Trump and Elon say "Paper Straw" during their Feb 18 interview?Won
No$2 @ 19.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4400 on August 18?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Rams vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$301 @ 64.1¢
Texans vs. TitansWon
Texans$20 @ 78.8¢
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?Lost
No$13 @ 39.0¢
Benfica vs. Auckland City: 7+ Goals Scored?Won
No$44 @ 61.5¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Won
No$161 @ 86.8¢
Titans vs. GiantsLost
Titans$44 @ 44.0¢
Will Housecoin dip to $0.025 before June?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé score the most total goals in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?Won
No$3 @ 73.0¢
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?Lost
Yes$29 @ 71.5¢
Will Solana reach $90 in May?Won
Yes$65 @ 65.0¢
Will XRP reach $3.20 in October?Won
No$10 @ 20.0¢
Colts vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$11 @ 56.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 6?Lost
Yes$42 @ 42.0¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$37 @ 74.0¢
Will XRP reach $3.40 by February 28 2025?Won
No$33 @ 66.4¢
Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Won
Seahawks$39 @ 64.4¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?Lost
No$28 @ 55.0¢
Will Solana dip to $130 in November?Lost
No$31 @ 62.0¢
49ers vs. SeahawksLost
49ers$75 @ 28.0¢
49ers vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$174 @ 87.0¢
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)Won
Colts$5 @ 49.0¢
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during his presser with Ireland PM?Won
No$17 @ 86.0¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?Won
No$8 @ 76.0¢
Spread: Rams (-11.5)Lost
Rams$30 @ 50.3¢
Will Solana reach $185 in August?Won
Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Won
Yes$11 @ 36.0¢
Will Solana dip to $130 in July?Won
No$38 @ 75.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$67 @ 66.0¢
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Lost
No$6 @ 30.0¢
Saints vs. DolphinsWon
Dolphins$21 @ 71.0¢
Will XRP dip to $2.60 in August?Won
No$110 @ 73.0¢
Will Solana dip to $140 in August?Won
No$37 @ 74.0¢
Will Solana reach $275 in November?Won
No$16 @ 79.0¢
Will Feyenoord vs. AC Milan end in a draw?Lost
Yes$3 @ 25.0¢
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?Lost
Yes$29 @ 57.2¢
Cardinals vs. VikingsWon
Vikings$7 @ 36.0¢
Will Germany vs. France end in a draw?Won
No$22 @ 74.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August?Lost
No$108 @ 54.0¢
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 75m-100m views on day 1?Won
No$8 @ 83.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on May 18 at 5 PM ET?Won
No$1 @ 82.0¢
Google forced to sell Chrome?Won
No$8 @ 75.0¢
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?Won
No$37 @ 73.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?Lost
90k$9 @ 15.0¢
Spread: Falcons (-3.5)Lost
Falcons$31 @ 44.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?Lost
Yes$39 @ 39.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Won
No$50 @ 84.0¢
Buccaneers vs. PanthersWon
Panthers$47 @ 39.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Solana dip to $90 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$278	69.5¢
Will Solana reach $140 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$193	56.5¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$161	80.7¢
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?	Crypto	$140	$159	53.2¢
Will Solana dip to $80 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$150	75.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$103	51.3¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$80	80.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$70	69.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$51	14.1¢
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	Politics	Yes	$32	53.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$31	15.7¢
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$27	28.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$22	22.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	No	$22	54.0¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$18	9.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	No	$18	18.0¢
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$13	8.4¢

Will Solana dip to $90 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$278 @ 69.5¢
Will Solana reach $140 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$193 @ 56.5¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$161 @ 80.7¢
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?Crypto
$140$159 @ 53.2¢
Will Solana dip to $80 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$150 @ 75.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$103 @ 51.3¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$70 @ 69.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$51 @ 14.1¢
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?Politics
Yes$32 @ 53.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$31 @ 15.7¢
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$27 @ 28.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$22 @ 22.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
No$22 @ 54.0¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$18 @ 9.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
No$18 @ 18.0¢
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$13 @ 8.4¢