0xef13…63d9

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other93 bets

  Hit rate

  51% (47/93)

  ROI

  +15%

• Politics50 bets

  Hit rate

  64% (32/50)

  ROI

  +25%

• Culture50 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (25/50)

  ROI

  +28%

• Tech11 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (6/11)

  ROI

  +8%

• Sports10 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (6/10)

  ROI

  +15%

• Economy9 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (6/9)

  ROI

  +36%

• Geopolitics3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +17%

• Science2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Business2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?Lost
  No$0 @ 9.7¢
• Will Trump say "Uber" in September?Won
  No$32 @ 88.4¢
• Will Trump say "Micron" in September?Won
  No$4 @ 72.0¢
• Will Micron say "Nvidia" during earnings call?Won
  Yes$30 @ 54.0¢
• Will Micron say "Data Center" 5+ times during earnings call?Lost
  No$25 @ 12.0¢
• Will Micron say "Agentic" during earnings call?Won
  Yes$67 @ 77.6¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$16 @ 13.7¢
• Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$98 @ 88.6¢
• Will Micron say "Tariff" during earnings call?Won
  No$9 @ 74.0¢
• Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 37.2¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Won
  Yes$2 @ 58.7¢
• Will Guillermo Rodriguez be eliminated in week 3 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 12.0¢
• Will Taylor Hanson be eliminated in week 3 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?Lost
  No$96 @ 47.8¢
• Will "The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Lost
  No$3 @ 11.0¢
• Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 17 million views this week?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 23.0¢
• Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week?Lost
  No$4 @ 16.2¢
• Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Lost
  No$0 @ 10.8¢
• Will Trump say "Meta" in September?Lost
  No$16 @ 32.4¢
• Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 21 million views this week?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 8.5¢
• Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" during his remarks at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium?Won
  Yes$35 @ 70.0¢
• Will Trump say "Nuclear" during his remarks at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium?Lost
  No$20 @ 28.8¢
• Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.0M in August?Won
  No$11 @ 87.9¢
• Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?Won
  No$166 @ 82.6¢
• Will Meta say "Dividend" during earnings call?Won
  No$15 @ 47.5¢
• Will Warsh say "Stable" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Won
  No$58 @ 72.1¢
• Will “Swim” by BTS win Song of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Lost
  No$40 @ 71.6¢
• Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Won
  No$52 @ 71.0¢
• Will "The Brink of War" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
  Yes$2 @ 46.3¢
• Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?Won
  No$4 @ 85.0¢
• Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Lost
  No$48 @ 37.6¢
• Will Netanyahu say "Drone" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 27.0¢
• Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?Won
  No$6 @ 26.0¢
• Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 57.0¢
• Croatia vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first?Won
  No$4 @ 89.0¢
• Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?Lost
  No$4 @ 18.1¢
• Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 51.7¢
• Will General Mills say "Supply Chain" during earnings call?Lost
  No$5 @ 10.0¢
• Will Dell say "Nvidia" during earnings call?Lost
  No$14 @ 8.7¢
• Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks to U.S. Embassy Personnel and Business Leaders?Lost
  No$10 @ 20.0¢
• Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call?Won
  No$61 @ 39.5¢
• Will "Heart of the Beast" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
  No$15 @ 73.0¢
• Will General Mills say "GLP-1" or "GLP1" during earnings call?Won
  No$23 @ 36.5¢
• Will General Mills say "GLP-1" or "GLP1" during earnings call?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
• Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Won
  No$27 @ 63.5¢
• Will JD Vance say "Manufacture" or "Manufacturing" during his rally in North Carolina?Won
  No$3 @ 35.0¢
• Will JD Vance say "Manufacture" or "Manufacturing" during his rally in North Carolina?Lost
  Yes$19 @ 37.0¢
• Will Costco say "Holiday" during earnings call?Lost
  No$6 @ 27.7¢
• Will Andy Burnham say "King" or "Queen" during the next PMQ?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 3.8¢
• Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
  No$48 @ 44.7¢
• Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
  Yes$54 @ 31.8¢

Current positions

• Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
  No$160 @ 80.0¢
• Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?Economy
  No$158 @ 82.0¢
• Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?Economy
  No$118 @ 77.0¢
• Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
  Yes$78 @ 57.2¢
• Will "Digger" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Culture
  Yes$64 @ 45.0¢
• Will Trump say "Fake News" during his rally in Oklahoma?Politics
  Yes$49 @ 82.0¢
• Will Rick Devens come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?Culture
  Yes$46 @ 30.5¢
• Will Trump say "Made in America" or "American Made" during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company?Politics
  No$45 @ 25.0¢
• Will Taylor Brown come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?Culture
  Yes$39 @ 31.8¢
• Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$32 @ 89.9¢
• Will Trump say "Uber" in September?Politics
  No$32 @ 88.4¢
• Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?Economy
  Yes$28 @ 17.0¢
• Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Geopolitics
  Yes$25 @ 11.7¢
• Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  No$22 @ 42.0¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
  Yes$19 @ 7.3¢
• Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$19 @ 13.0¢
• Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" this week?Politics
  No$15 @ 51.0¢
• Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Politics
  No$10 @ 36.8¢
• Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?Economy
  No$8 @ 42.0¢
• Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Josephine?Science
  Yes$8 @ 17.0¢
• Will Drew Campbell come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?Culture
  No$8 @ 73.6¢
• Will Trump say "Diesel" during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company?Politics
  No$6 @ 28.0¢
• Will Drew Campbell come in second-place on Big Brother season 28?Culture
  Yes$5 @ 43.5¢
• Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.50% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?Economy
  Yes$4 @ 22.0¢
• Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in September?Economy
  Yes$4 @ 3.8¢
• Will Taylor Brown come in second-place on Big Brother season 28?Culture
  Yes$3 @ 17.9¢
• Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Economy
  Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
• Will Jalen Duren play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?Sports
  No$1 @ 60.5¢
• Will Drew Campbell come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?Culture
  Yes$1 @ 21.8¢
• Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?Tech
  Yes$1 @ 2.6¢