0xef0d…7e94

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics28 bets

  Hit rate

  89% (25/28)

  ROI

  +21%

• Other14 bets

  Hit rate

  79% (11/14)

  ROI

  +85%

• Geopolitics3 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (3/3)

  ROI

  +16%

• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
  No$20 @ 86.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 69.0¢
• Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
  No$4 @ 66.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$65 @ 39.1¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$29 @ 81.9¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$23 @ 69.5¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
  No$16 @ 72.8¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
  No$7 @ 45.9¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
  No$53 @ 74.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$31 @ 82.8¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$9 @ 86.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$84 @ 51.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
  No$33 @ 89.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$2 @ 29.2¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$194 @ 78.6¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
  No$38 @ 82.5¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$54 @ 73.7¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
  No$25 @ 64.1¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
  No$9 @ 56.0¢
• Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$8 @ 84.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$108 @ 73.9¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$26 @ 75.4¢
• Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$17 @ 80.7¢
• Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$25 @ 51.6¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
  No$35 @ 86.7¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 44.5¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Won
  No$34 @ 87.5¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
  Yes$86 @ 45.4¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$14 @ 26.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
  No$38 @ 74.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$9 @ 79.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$51 @ 31.2¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
  No$6 @ 81.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$15 @ 16.7¢
• Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$195 @ 68.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 35.7¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
  Yes$213 @ 72.9¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 63.1¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$16 @ 85.2¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?Won
  No$14 @ 20.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?Won
  No$7 @ 53.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$5 @ 88.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$80 @ 43.6¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 72.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
  No$33 @ 82.7¢

Current positions

• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$511 @ 79.2¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$455 @ 81.7¢
• Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
  Yes$328 @ 88.2¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?—
  No$321 @ 80.3¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?—
  No$218 @ 40.5¢
• Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Politics
  No$181 @ 87.0¢
• Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?—
  No$181 @ 50.5¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$178 @ 56.5¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$161 @ 75.0¢
• Trump meets with Putin by December 31?—
  No$149 @ 66.1¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?—
  No$149 @ 40.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$136 @ 69.2¢
• Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$122 @ 87.7¢
• Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
  Yes$103 @ 63.9¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$88 @ 67.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$86 @ 49.5¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?Politics
  No$69 @ 94.9¢
• Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Politics
  No$34 @ 50.4¢
• Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$31 @ 79.0¢
• Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$27 @ 90.0¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$5 @ 78.0¢
• Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?—
  No$3 @ 68.0¢