0xef0d…7e94

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xef0d5a1f3abaee8e780e5c64c77428e60c397e94
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+23.9pp

ROI

+36%

Win rate

87% @ 63.1¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

153

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	79% (27/34)	+10%	34
Other	67% (14/21)	+39%	21
Geopolitics	75% (3/4)	+13%	4

Politics34 bets
Hit rate
79% (27/34)
ROI
+10%
Other21 bets
Hit rate
67% (14/21)
ROI
+39%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+13%

Track record

75% hit · 44/59

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	No	$38	65.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	$8	58.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$27	63.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	$32	48.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$5	38.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$16	83.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	No	$95	61.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$2	10.1¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	$203	96.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Yes	$23	41.5¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$10	8.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$9	52.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$142	95.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	No	$67	25.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$20	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$4	69.0¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$4	66.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$65	39.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$29	81.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$23	69.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$16	72.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	No	$7	45.9¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$53	74.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$31	82.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	No	$9	86.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$84	51.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$33	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$2	29.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$194	78.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	$38	82.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$54	73.7¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$25	64.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$9	56.0¢	Won
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$8	84.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$108	73.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$26	75.4¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$17	80.7¢	Won
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?	No	$25	51.6¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	$35	86.7¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$4	44.5¢	Won
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	$34	87.5¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$86	45.4¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$14	26.3¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	$38	74.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$9	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$51	31.2¢	Lost
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$6	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	No	$15	16.7¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$195	68.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$12	35.7¢	Lost

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Lost
No$38 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Lost
No$8 @ 58.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$27 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
Yes$32 @ 48.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$5 @ 38.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$16 @ 83.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Lost
No$95 @ 61.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.1¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Won
No$203 @ 96.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Lost
Yes$23 @ 41.5¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 8.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 52.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
No$142 @ 95.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Lost
No$67 @ 25.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 69.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$65 @ 39.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$29 @ 81.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 69.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$16 @ 72.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 45.9¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$53 @ 74.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$31 @ 82.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 86.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$84 @ 51.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$33 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 29.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$194 @ 78.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
No$38 @ 82.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$54 @ 73.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 64.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 56.0¢
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 84.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$108 @ 73.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$26 @ 75.4¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 80.7¢
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 51.6¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
No$35 @ 86.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 44.5¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Won
No$34 @ 87.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$86 @ 45.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 26.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
No$38 @ 74.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$51 @ 31.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$6 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 16.7¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$195 @ 68.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 35.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$49	80.3¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	78.0¢

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?—
No$49 @ 80.3¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 78.0¢