0xed45…0d29

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xed457c7e2e3e28cf8129502010fcf8ae5b970d29
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.8pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

50% @ 36.7¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

208

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	32% (15/47)	+18%	47
Other	38% (18/47)	-19%	47
Sports	44% (4/9)	-40%	9
Crypto	43% (3/7)	+9%	7
Geopolitics	33% (2/6)	-49%	6
Tech	50% (2/4)	-3%	4

Politics47 bets
Hit rate
32% (15/47)
ROI
+18%
Other47 bets
Hit rate
38% (18/47)
ROI
-19%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-40%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-49%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-3%

Track record

37% hit · 44/120

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$3	65.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	89.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$5	71.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$195	21.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$1	54.2¢	Lost
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$3	1.4¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$10	48.4¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	No	$7	55.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$3	55.4¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$4	21.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$17	16.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	4.2¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$64	67.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$37	2.0¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	No	$1	62.0¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$16	74.5¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$1	33.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$2	67.2¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	5.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$20	83.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$32	13.6¢	Lost
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$6	0.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$159	64.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$234	34.1¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$5	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$18	90.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$6	62.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$9	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$11	2.9¢	Lost
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$5	54.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	86.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$8	24.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$66	67.4¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Lost
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?	Yes	$2	5.5¢	Lost
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$10	19.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$168	62.6¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$3	58.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	$51	0.6¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$51	38.3¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$21	40.9¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	No	$2	20.2¢	Lost
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$51	50.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$220	45.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost

Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$3 @ 65.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 89.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$5 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$195 @ 21.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$1 @ 54.2¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.4¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$10 @ 48.4¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
No$7 @ 55.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$3 @ 55.4¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 21.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$17 @ 16.0¢
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 4.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$64 @ 67.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 2.0¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Won
No$1 @ 62.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$16 @ 74.5¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$2 @ 67.2¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$20 @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$32 @ 13.6¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$159 @ 64.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$234 @ 34.1¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$5 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$18 @ 90.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$6 @ 62.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 2.9¢
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$5 @ 54.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 86.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 24.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$66 @ 67.4¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.5¢
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$10 @ 19.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$168 @ 62.6¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$3 @ 58.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$51 @ 0.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$51 @ 38.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 40.9¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
No$2 @ 20.2¢
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$51 @ 50.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$220 @ 45.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$145	98.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Politics	No	$143	94.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$112	72.5¢
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?	—	No	$50	99.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	Crypto	No	$41	81.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$28	92.3¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$23	92.4¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$16	92.5¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?	Politics	No	$15	95.0¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$13	84.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?	—	No	$11	86.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	19.3¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	No	$8	79.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$7	77.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Economy	Yes	$5	9.2¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5	94.1¢
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	Politics	No	$4	97.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?	—	Yes	$4	83.5¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Politics	No	$4	86.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	18.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$4	19.7¢
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	93.1¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$3	72.0¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Politics	No	$3	83.8¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	77.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	—	No	$2	87.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	29.1¢
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	9.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	19.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?	—	No	$2	51.0¢

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$145 @ 98.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics
No$143 @ 94.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$112 @ 72.5¢
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?—
No$50 @ 99.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?Crypto
No$41 @ 81.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$28 @ 92.3¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$23 @ 92.4¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 92.5¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?Politics
No$15 @ 95.0¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
No$13 @ 84.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?—
No$11 @ 86.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 19.3¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
No$8 @ 79.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Politics
Yes$7 @ 77.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Economy
Yes$5 @ 9.2¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$5 @ 94.1¢
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?Politics
No$4 @ 97.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?—
Yes$4 @ 83.5¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Politics
No$4 @ 86.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 18.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$4 @ 19.7¢
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 93.1¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Geopolitics
No$3 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Politics
No$3 @ 83.8¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 77.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?—
No$2 @ 87.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 29.1¢
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?—
No$2 @ 51.0¢