0xecb1…5da3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xecb14ac6e9ca447ce2f2912e6217b43d7b655da3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

40% @ 36.3¢

Brier

0.154

Resolved

5934

Avg size

$327

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (104/226)	+6%	226
Sports	51% (19/37)	+47%	37
Politics	41% (14/34)	-8%	34
Crypto	50% (3/6)	+235%	6
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+61%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other226 bets
Hit rate
46% (104/226)
ROI
+6%
Sports37 bets
Hit rate
51% (19/37)
ROI
+47%
Politics34 bets
Hit rate
41% (14/34)
ROI
-8%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+235%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+61%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

46% hit · 141/305

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers	High Point Panthers	$1.9k	19.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	No	$269	15.0¢	Lost
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$715	45.7¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$3.2k	56.6¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?	No	$149	47.9¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5	Under	$92	9.0¢	Lost
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders	Texas Tech Red Raiders	$14.7k	73.5¢	Won
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines	Arizona Wildcats	$7.4k	50.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$10.7k	89.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$1.3k	3.7¢	Lost
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?	No	$6	1.2¢	Lost
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$820	82.0¢	Won
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?	No	$244	31.9¢	Lost
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?	Yes	$1.0k	35.6¢	Won
Colts vs. Chiefs	Colts	$3.2k	30.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$8.0k	87.2¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$55	27.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$83.9k	23.2¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$70.3k	59.3¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$2	45.5¢	Lost
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?	Yes	$5	2.3¢	Lost
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruins	UCLA Bruins	$2.2k	68.0¢	Won
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	No	$1.3k	60.0¢	Lost
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	$9.7k	61.4¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	No	$1.2k	55.8¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	No	$800	40.0¢	Lost
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats	Kentucky Wildcats	$1.1k	58.0¢	Won
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$40	0.2¢	Lost
Avalanche vs. Wild	Avalanche	$10.4k	54.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$27.3k	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$10.3k	12.3¢	Lost
France leading at halftime?	Yes	$2.3k	75.0¢	Won
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	$2.5k	49.3¢	Won
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	$3.2k	38.4¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$16.4k	82.0¢	Won
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?	No	$216	82.2¢	Won
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?	Yes	$5	25.0¢	Lost
NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Yes	$882	58.0¢	Lost
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$1.4k	6.5¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$30.1k	49.5¢	Lost
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves	San Francisco Giants	$3.5k	28.1¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$3.3k	66.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5	Under	$90	0.1¢	Lost
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	$810	5.4¢	Lost
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers	Miami (OH) RedHawks	$6.9k	17.0¢	Lost
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Florida Gators	Prairie View A&M Panthers	$130	1.3¢	Lost
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide	Alabama Crimson Tide	$15.0k	50.0¢	Won
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	$66	4.1¢	Lost
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?	Yes	$754	24.2¢	Won

High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin BadgersWon
High Point Panthers$1.9k @ 19.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Lost
No$269 @ 15.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$715 @ 45.7¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 56.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?Won
No$149 @ 47.9¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Lost
Under$92 @ 9.0¢
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red RaidersWon
Texas Tech Red Raiders$14.7k @ 73.5¢
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan WolverinesLost
Arizona Wildcats$7.4k @ 50.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$10.7k @ 89.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 3.7¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 1.2¢
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 0.2¢
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$820 @ 82.0¢
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?Lost
No$244 @ 31.9¢
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 35.6¢
Colts vs. ChiefsLost
Colts$3.2k @ 30.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$8.0k @ 87.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$55 @ 27.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$83.9k @ 23.2¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$70.3k @ 59.3¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$2 @ 45.5¢
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.3¢
UCF Knights vs. UCLA BruinsWon
UCLA Bruins$2.2k @ 68.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Lost
No$1.3k @ 60.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Won
Yes$9.7k @ 61.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Lost
No$1.2k @ 55.8¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?Lost
No$800 @ 40.0¢
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky WildcatsWon
Kentucky Wildcats$1.1k @ 58.0¢
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 0.2¢
Avalanche vs. WildWon
Avalanche$10.4k @ 54.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$27.3k @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$10.3k @ 12.3¢
France leading at halftime?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 75.0¢
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Won
Under$2.5k @ 49.3¢
Knicks vs. CavaliersLost
Cavaliers$3.2k @ 38.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$16.4k @ 82.0¢
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?Won
No$216 @ 82.2¢
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?Lost
Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesLost
Yes$882 @ 58.0¢
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 6.5¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$30.1k @ 49.5¢
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta BravesWon
San Francisco Giants$3.5k @ 28.1¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$3.3k @ 66.0¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Lost
Under$90 @ 0.1¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
No$810 @ 5.4¢
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee VolunteersLost
Miami (OH) RedHawks$6.9k @ 17.0¢
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Florida GatorsLost
Prairie View A&M Panthers$130 @ 1.3¢
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson TideWon
Alabama Crimson Tide$15.0k @ 50.0¢
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?Lost
Yes$66 @ 4.1¢
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Won
Yes$754 @ 24.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$36.6k	67.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6.9k	7.8¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$6.6k	52.3¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$5.2k	76.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.2k	52.0¢
Spread: Packers (-6.5)	Sports	Falcons	$1.2k	49.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$36.6k @ 67.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$6.9k @ 7.8¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$6.6k @ 52.3¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$5.2k @ 76.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$5.2k @ 52.0¢
Spread: Packers (-6.5)Sports
Falcons$1.2k @ 49.0¢