← Smart money
0xecb1…5da3
SharpEdge
+1.9pp
ROI
+8%
Win rate
42% @ 39.8¢
Brier
0.155
Resolved
6265
Avg size
$435
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 49% (144/293) | +4% | 293 |
| Sports | 45% (60/133) | +30% | 133 |
| Politics | 37% (30/82) | -3% | 82 |
| Culture | 57% (4/7) | +7% | 7 |
| Crypto | 50% (3/6) | +235% | 6 |
| Tech | 50% (2/4) | +12% | 4 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +61% | 1 |
| Economy | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other293 bets
- Hit rate
- 49% (144/293)
- ROI
- +4%
- Sports133 bets
- Hit rate
- 45% (60/133)
- ROI
- +30%
- Politics82 bets
- Hit rate
- 37% (30/82)
- ROI
- -3%
- Culture7 bets
- Hit rate
- 57% (4/7)
- ROI
- +7%
- Crypto6 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (3/6)
- ROI
- +235%
- Tech4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +12%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +61%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
46% hit · 244/527- Rams$3.5k @ 34.0¢
- No$715 @ 45.7¢
- Yes$3.2k @ 56.6¢
- Under$92 @ 9.0¢
- Dolphins$4.3k @ 25.0¢
- Falcons$1.1k @ 33.0¢
- Texas Tech Red Raiders$7.3k @ 73.0¢
- Arizona Wildcats$7.4k @ 50.3¢
- Panthers$13.4k @ 31.1¢
- Yes$157 @ 59.0¢
- No$2 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$820 @ 82.0¢
- No$244 @ 31.9¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 35.6¢
- Colts vs. ChiefsLostColts$3.2k @ 30.0¢
- No$8.0k @ 87.2¢
- Yes$55 @ 27.6¢
- Yes$83.9k @ 23.2¢
- No$70.3k @ 59.3¢
- Yes$2 @ 45.5¢
- No$1.3k @ 60.0¢
- Yes$9.7k @ 61.4¢
- Over$2.6k @ 52.0¢
- No$800 @ 40.0¢
- Kentucky Wildcats$1.1k @ 58.0¢
- Yes$40 @ 0.2¢
- Avalanche$10.4k @ 54.0¢
- No$27.3k @ 88.0¢
- Mirra Andreeva$7.5k @ 79.4¢
- Under$1.5k @ 22.4¢
- Yes$10.3k @ 12.3¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 75.0¢
- Under$2.5k @ 49.3¢
- Cavaliers$3.2k @ 38.4¢
- No$16.4k @ 82.0¢
- Yes$882 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$718 @ 35.0¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 6.5¢
- Yes$3.3k @ 33.0¢
- Tennessee$2.5k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$30.1k @ 49.5¢
- San Francisco Giants$3.5k @ 28.1¢
- Yes$3.3k @ 66.0¢
- Under$90 @ 0.1¢
- No$810 @ 5.4¢
- Miami (OH) RedHawks$6.9k @ 17.0¢
- Alabama Crimson Tide$15.0k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$754 @ 24.2¢
- Atlanta Braves$2.5k @ 51.0¢
- Queens (NC) Royals$162 @ 2.6¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | Politics | Yes | $7.4k | 36.0¢ |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $6.9k | 7.8¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $6.0k | 24.0¢ |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $5.4k | 76.0¢ |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | No | $4.1k | 41.2¢ |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? | Sports | No | $70 | 64.0¢ |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026-27 NBA MVP? | Sports | No | $57 | 66.8¢ |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $47 | 13.8¢ |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | Culture | No | $14 | 70.0¢ |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Politics | No | $0 | 85.3¢ |
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?PoliticsYes$7.4k @ 36.0¢
- Yes$6.9k @ 7.8¢
- Yes$6.0k @ 24.0¢
- Yes$5.4k @ 76.0¢
- No$4.1k @ 41.2¢
- No$70 @ 64.0¢
- No$57 @ 66.8¢
- Yes$47 @ 13.8¢
- No$14 @ 70.0¢
- No$0 @ 85.3¢