0xec06…9178

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xec06668bca4430ef0772ec8276c42250563a9178
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

43% @ 37.8¢

Brier

0.199

Resolved

1705

Avg size

$29

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (330/711)	+23%	711
Politics	50% (6/12)	-5%	12
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	+124%	3
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	100% (2/2)	+28%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other711 bets
Hit rate
46% (330/711)
ROI
+23%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
-5%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+124%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+28%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

46% hit · 339/731

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	No	$200	27.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during announcement today?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Syria on Friday August 29?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	Yes	$7	36.5¢	Lost
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$55	7.3¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?	No	$48	77.0¢	Lost
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025?	Yes	$2	2.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?	Yes	$16	54.0¢	Lost
Will Leavitt say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during next White House press briefing?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$7	13.8¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	Yes	$15	76.0¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Hostage" during next White House press briefing?	No	$17	44.8¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	Yes	$46	33.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$208	15.8¢	Lost
Will Sidemen's next video get between 6.0–7.0 million views on week 1?	Yes	$21	44.0¢	Lost
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$27	33.1¢	Lost
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?	Yes	$2	4.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of January 19?	No	$77	68.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Egg" or "Beef" during the McDonald's Summit on November 17?	Yes	$21	71.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hamas" during Saudi PM events on November 18?	Yes	$15	38.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14?	Yes	$2	76.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by March 31?	No	$25	74.5¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	No	$16	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$26	25.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "TikTok" during the Fox News interview on September 18?	Yes	$3	54.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	$66	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during the private dinner on November 12?	Yes	$36	60.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$20	33.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast raise 40m on Monday September 1?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	No	$144	72.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$5	1.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?	No	$13	44.0¢	Won
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?	No	$48	59.6¢	Lost
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?	Yes	$11	35.0¢	Lost
Will Leavitt say "President" 77+ times during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	$3	22.3¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$93	9.9¢	Lost
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?	Yes	$10	33.9¢	Lost
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?	No	$2	54.0¢	Won
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	No	$81	46.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the Brian Kilmeade Show on November 21?	No	$17	55.2¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?	Yes	$180	57.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Russia" 7+ times during events with President of Finland on Oct 9?	Yes	$6	56.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25?	Yes	$2	49.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31?	No	$236	44.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31?	Yes	$99	34.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?	Yes	$375	65.6¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$404	27.4¢	Lost
Will Stokes Twins' next video get less than 15 million views on week 1?	No	$42	16.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Healthcare" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?	No	$6	28.0¢	Won

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$200 @ 27.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during announcement today?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Israel strike Syria on Friday August 29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Lost
Yes$7 @ 36.5¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$55 @ 7.3¢
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?Lost
No$48 @ 77.0¢
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.8¢
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?Lost
Yes$16 @ 54.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during next White House press briefing?Lost
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$7 @ 13.8¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Won
Yes$15 @ 76.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Hostage" during next White House press briefing?Lost
No$17 @ 44.8¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Won
Yes$46 @ 33.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$208 @ 15.8¢
Will Sidemen's next video get between 6.0–7.0 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$21 @ 44.0¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$27 @ 33.1¢
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.4¢
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Won
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of January 19?Won
No$77 @ 68.3¢
Will Trump say "Egg" or "Beef" during the McDonald's Summit on November 17?Won
Yes$21 @ 71.0¢
Will Trump say "Hamas" during Saudi PM events on November 18?Won
Yes$15 @ 38.0¢
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14?Won
Yes$2 @ 76.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by March 31?Won
No$25 @ 74.5¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
No$16 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$26 @ 25.5¢
Will Trump say "TikTok" during the Fox News interview on September 18?Won
Yes$3 @ 54.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$66 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during the private dinner on November 12?Lost
Yes$36 @ 60.5¢
Will Trump say "Hanukkah" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$20 @ 33.0¢
Will MrBeast raise 40m on Monday September 1?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Won
No$144 @ 72.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.6¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?Won
No$13 @ 44.0¢
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?Lost
No$48 @ 59.6¢
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?Lost
Yes$11 @ 35.0¢
Will Leavitt say "President" 77+ times during the next White House press briefing?Won
Yes$3 @ 22.3¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$93 @ 9.9¢
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?Lost
Yes$10 @ 33.9¢
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?Won
No$2 @ 54.0¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Lost
No$81 @ 46.4¢
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the Brian Kilmeade Show on November 21?Won
No$17 @ 55.2¢
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?Lost
Yes$180 @ 57.3¢
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Russia" 7+ times during events with President of Finland on Oct 9?Won
Yes$6 @ 56.0¢
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25?Won
Yes$2 @ 49.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31?Lost
No$236 @ 44.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31?Won
Yes$99 @ 34.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Won
Yes$375 @ 65.6¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$404 @ 27.4¢
Will Stokes Twins' next video get less than 15 million views on week 1?Won
No$42 @ 16.9¢
Will Trump say "Healthcare" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?Won
No$6 @ 28.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	49.8¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	No	$400	70.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	—	Yes	$369	44.5¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$200	27.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Business	No	$153	14.7¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$150	19.3¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$113	11.3¢
Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	Business	Yes	$100	29.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 7, 2026?	—	No	$95	41.0¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$62	22.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$60	10.0¢
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$59	3.0¢
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$30	7.6¢
Will MrBeast's video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 4?	—	Yes	$13	10.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?	—	Yes	$8	5.2¢
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3?	—	Yes	$5	7.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	—	No	$2	13.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?	—	Yes	$2	14.0¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 49.8¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
No$400 @ 70.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?—
Yes$369 @ 44.5¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$200 @ 27.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
No$153 @ 14.7¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$150 @ 19.3¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$113 @ 11.3¢
Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?Business
Yes$100 @ 29.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 7, 2026?—
No$95 @ 41.0¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$62 @ 22.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$60 @ 10.0¢
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$59 @ 3.0¢
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$30 @ 7.6¢
Will MrBeast's video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 4?—
Yes$13 @ 10.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?—
Yes$8 @ 5.2¢
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3?—
Yes$5 @ 7.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?—
No$2 @ 13.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?—
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢