0xeba9…1eae

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xeba96ed3f877548dce47f7062fff11e391fd1eae
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+13.7pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

60% @ 46.7¢

Brier

0.241

Resolved

278

Avg size

$54

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (48/96)	+113%	96
Politics	23% (7/30)	-9%	30
Sports	50% (2/4)	-28%	4
Economy	33% (1/3)	+4%	3
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	+22%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other96 bets
Hit rate
50% (48/96)
ROI
+113%
Politics30 bets
Hit rate
23% (7/30)
ROI
-9%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-28%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+4%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+22%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 59/136

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	Yes	$210	67.8¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$50	83.0¢	Won
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?	Yes	$20	55.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$200	38.3¢	Lost
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$149	6.0¢	Lost
FIFA Intercontinental Cup: PSG vs. Flamengo - Winner	Flamengo	$20	37.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	40.0¢	Lost
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	$30	50.0¢	Won
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$180	64.9¢	Won
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	Yes	$35	77.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$25	82.0¢	Won
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$2	1.2¢	Lost
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2025 French Open?	Yes	$10	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$65	61.7¢	Lost
Will Spain beat Portugal?	Yes	$60	71.1¢	Lost
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	Yes	$25	71.0¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?	Yes	$25	57.5¢	Lost
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?	Yes	$45	79.7¢	Won
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?	Yes	$15	25.0¢	Lost
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?	Yes	$13	28.0¢	Lost
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$10	16.3¢	Lost
Yoon arrested by January 31?	No	$40	46.0¢	Lost
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?	No	$30	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$200	60.8¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$30	3.0¢	Lost
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?	Yes	$10	21.1¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?	Yes	$40	67.3¢	Lost
Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?	Yes	$35	85.0¢	Won
Will Mirra Andreeva win Wimbledon 2025?	Yes	$10	8.0¢	Lost
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open?	Yes	$5	8.5¢	Lost
Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?	Yes	$26	58.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?	Yes	$10	49.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$758	14.7¢	Won
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?	Yes	$253	48.7¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	$150	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$25	55.2¢	Won
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?	Yes	$35	74.7¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?	Yes	$9	2.3¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	$10	7.9¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?	Yes	$38	62.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?	No	$40	59.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?	Yes	$20	37.0¢	Won
Justin Trudeau out as leader of Liberals before April?	Yes	$35	73.0¢	Won
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?	Yes	$20	16.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?	Yes	$150	56.2¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$20	44.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$30	31.1¢	Won
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?	No	$25	35.0¢	Won

Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Won
Yes$210 @ 67.8¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$50 @ 83.0¢
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 55.5¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$200 @ 38.3¢
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$149 @ 6.0¢
FIFA Intercontinental Cup: PSG vs. Flamengo - WinnerLost
Flamengo$20 @ 37.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 40.0¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Won
No$30 @ 50.0¢
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Won
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$180 @ 64.9¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Won
Yes$35 @ 77.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$25 @ 82.0¢
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2025 French Open? Lost
Yes$10 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$65 @ 61.7¢
Will Spain beat Portugal?Lost
Yes$60 @ 71.1¢
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Lost
Yes$25 @ 71.0¢
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?Lost
Yes$25 @ 57.5¢
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Won
Yes$45 @ 79.7¢
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?Lost
Yes$15 @ 25.0¢
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?Lost
Yes$13 @ 28.0¢
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.3¢
Yoon arrested by January 31?Lost
No$40 @ 46.0¢
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?Won
No$30 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$200 @ 60.8¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$30 @ 3.0¢
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?Lost
Yes$10 @ 21.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?Lost
Yes$40 @ 67.3¢
Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Won
Yes$35 @ 85.0¢
Will Mirra Andreeva win Wimbledon 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.5¢
Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?Won
Yes$26 @ 58.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Lost
Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$758 @ 14.7¢
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?Lost
Yes$253 @ 48.7¢
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$150 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$25 @ 55.2¢
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?Lost
Yes$35 @ 74.7¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.3¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$38 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$40 @ 59.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?Won
Yes$20 @ 37.0¢
Justin Trudeau out as leader of Liberals before April?Won
Yes$35 @ 73.0¢
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Won
Yes$20 @ 16.0¢
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?Won
Yes$150 @ 56.2¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
Yes$20 @ 44.0¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$30 @ 31.1¢
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?Won
No$25 @ 35.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$654	25.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	No	$384	42.6¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$241	56.5¢
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Politics	Yes	$241	18.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$100	61.8¢

Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$654 @ 25.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
No$384 @ 42.6¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$241 @ 56.5¢
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
Yes$241 @ 18.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 61.8¢