0xeb58…6fa5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xeb58e26e51169b71d00f3beface74ffe1ddd6fa5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

47% @ 39.7¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

444

Avg size

$57

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (81/155)	+20%	155
Politics	41% (14/34)	+4%	34
Sports	40% (4/10)	-42%	10
Geopolitics	40% (2/5)	-49%	5
Tech	75% (3/4)	+65%	4
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other155 bets
Hit rate
52% (81/155)
ROI
+20%
Politics34 bets
Hit rate
41% (14/34)
ROI
+4%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
-42%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-49%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+65%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 104/209

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	$150	61.0¢	Won
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	$14	6.7¢	Lost
Colts vs. Seahawks	Colts	$18	18.0¢	Lost
49ers vs. Seahawks	49ers	$112	28.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$33	33.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$173	82.0¢	Won
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	Yes	$25	10.0¢	Lost
No airdrop in 2025?	Yes	$55	13.9¢	Lost
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	No	$42	72.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$108	9.3¢	Lost
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	Yes	$17	16.8¢	Won
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	No	$20	65.8¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$124	62.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$272	36.6¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	Yes	$158	39.8¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$103	71.9¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$348	86.9¢	Won
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?	Yes	$39	11.1¢	Lost
Mariners vs. Blue Jays	Mariners	$23	46.0¢	Lost
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?	No	$52	26.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$137	73.0¢	Won
Will Bernie say "Musk" or "Zuckerberg" or "Bezos" 7+ times during CNN town hall on October 15?	No	$10	69.0¢	Won
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$558	74.6¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$64	20.0¢	Lost
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	$104	7.0¢	Lost
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	No	$108	36.0¢	Lost
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	$934	74.3¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$124	31.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$172	74.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$134	73.9¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$72	84.5¢	Won
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?	No	$17	34.0¢	Lost
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	$14	55.7¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	No	$42	14.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	No	$35	35.0¢	Lost
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20?	No	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	Yes	$30	15.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$636	40.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$25	29.7¢	Lost
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the San Antonio Spurs?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	No	$7	69.0¢	Won
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	Yes	$54	54.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$240	24.0¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$68	31.8¢	Lost
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	$9	19.0¢	Lost
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$78	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?	Yes	$118	85.7¢	Won
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	No	$18	15.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$100	20.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$33	35.0¢	Won

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Won
Yes$150 @ 61.0¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
No$14 @ 6.7¢
Colts vs. SeahawksLost
Colts$18 @ 18.0¢
49ers vs. SeahawksLost
49ers$112 @ 28.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$33 @ 33.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$173 @ 82.0¢
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?Lost
Yes$25 @ 10.0¢
No airdrop in 2025?Lost
Yes$55 @ 13.9¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Won
No$42 @ 72.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$108 @ 9.3¢
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Won
Yes$17 @ 16.8¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Won
No$20 @ 65.8¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$124 @ 62.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$272 @ 36.6¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Won
Yes$158 @ 39.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$103 @ 71.9¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$348 @ 86.9¢
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?Lost
Yes$39 @ 11.1¢
Mariners vs. Blue JaysLost
Mariners$23 @ 46.0¢
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Lost
No$52 @ 26.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$137 @ 73.0¢
Will Bernie say "Musk" or "Zuckerberg" or "Bezos" 7+ times during CNN town hall on October 15?Won
No$10 @ 69.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$558 @ 74.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$64 @ 20.0¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers Lost
Lakers$104 @ 7.0¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Lost
No$108 @ 36.0¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Won
Yes$934 @ 74.3¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$124 @ 31.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$172 @ 74.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$134 @ 73.9¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$72 @ 84.5¢
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?Lost
No$17 @ 34.0¢
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Won
Yes$14 @ 55.7¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Won
No$42 @ 14.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$35 @ 35.0¢
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 20?Lost
No$9 @ 9.0¢
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?Lost
Yes$30 @ 15.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$636 @ 40.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$25 @ 29.7¢
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the San Antonio Spurs?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?Won
No$7 @ 69.0¢
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Lost
Yes$54 @ 54.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$240 @ 24.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$68 @ 31.8¢
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Lost
Yes$9 @ 19.0¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
No$78 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?Won
Yes$118 @ 85.7¢
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?Lost
No$18 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 20.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$33 @ 35.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	45.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$546	92.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$204	3.8¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$83	3.9¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$80	14.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$71	41.0¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$69	23.0¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$18	6.8¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$17	43.0¢
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$7	28.0¢
Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$5	5.0¢

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 45.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$546 @ 92.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$204 @ 3.8¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$83 @ 3.9¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$80 @ 14.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$71 @ 41.0¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$69 @ 23.0¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$18 @ 6.8¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$17 @ 43.0¢
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$7 @ 28.0¢
Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?Culture
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢