0xea41…1c98

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xea41d1253bf603d7947da4659e85080dc2071c98
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+2.0pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

42% @ 39.9¢

Brier

0.159

Resolved

3213

Avg size

$86

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (289/710)	+4%	710
Politics	42% (71/170)	+6%	170
Geopolitics	34% (14/41)	-6%	41
Sports	33% (1/3)	-53%	3
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other710 bets
Hit rate
41% (289/710)
ROI
+4%
Politics170 bets
Hit rate
42% (71/170)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics41 bets
Hit rate
34% (14/41)
ROI
-6%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-53%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

41% hit · 375/925

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Rams vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$20	58.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$162	61.9¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$19	9.7¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$20	22.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$17	25.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?	No	$130	36.7¢	Lost
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?	Yes	$223	38.0¢	Lost
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?	No	$647	52.4¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$127	33.8¢	Won
Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?	Yes	$17	17.0¢	Lost
49ers vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$20	76.0¢	Won
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?	Yes	$51	36.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?	Yes	$124	82.5¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$490	7.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?	Yes	$100	23.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?	No	$32	58.6¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$435	63.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$418	20.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$195	39.0¢	Lost
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?	Yes	$15	30.0¢	Won
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	No	$200	38.4¢	Lost
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	Yes	$632	65.5¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?	No	$47	13.2¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	No	$81	46.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	Yes	$100	20.8¢	Lost
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?	Yes	$103	34.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday?	Yes	$240	18.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	No	$556	49.3¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$1.7k	48.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$200	89.9¢	Won
Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?	Yes	$11	7.0¢	Lost
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?	No	$112	73.9¢	Won
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?	Yes	$60	20.3¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$20	19.4¢	Lost
Iran strike on Qatar today?	No	$20	58.7¢	Lost
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?	Yes	$200	5.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	10.5¢	Lost
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?	No	$198	89.0¢	Won
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?	No	$94	4.6¢	Lost
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?	Yes	$1	75.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	13.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?	Yes	$22	5.1¢	Lost
US kicks trans members out of military before July?	No	$164	41.9¢	Won
US kicks trans members out of military before July?	Yes	$532	52.5¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$2	71.4¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$21	10.8¢	Lost
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?	Yes	$295	65.4¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$117	42.6¢	Lost
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$100	49.4¢	Won

Rams vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$20 @ 58.0¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$162 @ 61.9¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 9.7¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 22.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?Lost
No$130 @ 36.7¢
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?Lost
Yes$223 @ 38.0¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?Won
No$647 @ 52.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$127 @ 33.8¢
Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
49ers vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$20 @ 76.0¢
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Won
Yes$51 @ 36.0¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Won
Yes$124 @ 82.5¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$490 @ 7.4¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?Lost
Yes$100 @ 23.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?Won
No$32 @ 58.6¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$435 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$418 @ 20.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$195 @ 39.0¢
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?Won
Yes$15 @ 30.0¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Lost
No$200 @ 38.4¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Won
Yes$632 @ 65.5¢
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?Lost
No$47 @ 13.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Lost
No$81 @ 46.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Lost
Yes$100 @ 20.8¢
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?Lost
Yes$103 @ 34.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday?Lost
Yes$240 @ 18.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
No$556 @ 49.3¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 48.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$200 @ 89.9¢
Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?Lost
Yes$11 @ 7.0¢
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?Won
No$112 @ 73.9¢
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?Lost
Yes$60 @ 20.3¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 19.4¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Lost
No$20 @ 58.7¢
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?Lost
Yes$200 @ 5.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 10.5¢
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?Won
No$198 @ 89.0¢
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?Lost
No$94 @ 4.6¢
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?Won
Yes$1 @ 75.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 13.0¢
Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?Lost
Yes$22 @ 5.1¢
US kicks trans members out of military before July? Won
No$164 @ 41.9¢
US kicks trans members out of military before July? Lost
Yes$532 @ 52.5¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 71.4¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$21 @ 10.8¢
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?Lost
Yes$295 @ 65.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$117 @ 42.6¢
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$100 @ 49.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.8k	95.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$996	42.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$645	33.8¢
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	Politics	No	$467	70.7¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Politics	Yes	$455	91.0¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$230	61.1¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by September 30?	Politics	No	$200	97.4¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$200	96.8¢
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	Politics	No	$200	62.0¢
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	Politics	No	$169	65.5¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$157	66.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$150	8.2¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$137	89.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Letitia James by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$103	75.7¢
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?	Politics	No	$100	90.4¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$100	15.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$91	83.2¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$88	55.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$67	64.0¢
Will PLQ finish in third place in the Quebec general election?	Politics	Yes	$63	52.0¢
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?	Politics	No	$61	80.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$61	61.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$61	61.0¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 23?	Geopolitics	No	$57	94.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	No	$56	8.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$50	34.0¢
Pakistan military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$48	91.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$43	7.9¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 28?	Geopolitics	No	$42	55.0¢
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$40	76.0¢

Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$1.8k @ 95.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$996 @ 42.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$645 @ 33.8¢
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?Politics
No$467 @ 70.7¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Politics
Yes$455 @ 91.0¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$230 @ 61.1¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by September 30?Politics
No$200 @ 97.4¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$200 @ 96.8¢
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?Politics
No$200 @ 62.0¢
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?Politics
No$169 @ 65.5¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?Geopolitics
No$157 @ 66.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$150 @ 8.2¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30?Geopolitics
No$137 @ 89.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Letitia James by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$103 @ 75.7¢
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?Politics
No$100 @ 90.4¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$100 @ 15.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$91 @ 83.2¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 30?Geopolitics
No$88 @ 55.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$67 @ 64.0¢
Will PLQ finish in third place in the Quebec general election?Politics
Yes$63 @ 52.0¢
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?Politics
No$61 @ 80.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?Politics
Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 23?Geopolitics
No$57 @ 94.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
No$56 @ 8.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$50 @ 34.0¢
Pakistan military action against Yemen by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$48 @ 91.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
No$43 @ 7.9¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 28?Geopolitics
No$42 @ 55.0¢
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 76.0¢