0xea30…f2a9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xea300cc5c9e63a64fb4c278fb418c0a21560f2a9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.6pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

60% @ 52.7¢

Brier

0.166

Resolved

398

Avg size

$40

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (28/56)	+25%	56
Politics	72% (28/39)	+7%	39
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+22%	1

Other56 bets
Hit rate
50% (28/56)
ROI
+25%
Politics39 bets
Hit rate
72% (28/39)
ROI
+7%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%

Track record

59% hit · 57/97

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$3	4.2¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$37	74.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$207	78.5¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$842	84.2¢	Won
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	$7	10.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$20	16.8¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$189	84.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$35	4.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$97	77.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	$130	86.3¢	Won
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$10	2.1¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$240	75.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	$25	62.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$19	27.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$81	81.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$5	17.3¢	Won
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	$9	52.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$120	80.4¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	$63	62.9¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$68	85.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$904	79.1¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	$46	22.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$88	64.0¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$35	46.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$428	76.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	59.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	No	$55	86.0¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	$433	86.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$375	79.1¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$14	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$510	85.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$94	61.6¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$1.7k	69.6¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$18	35.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	$63	31.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	$12	3.6¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$52	67.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	Yes	$3	25.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 4?	No	$52	41.9¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$23	57.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	46.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$37 @ 74.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$207 @ 78.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$842 @ 84.2¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Lost
Yes$7 @ 10.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 16.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$189 @ 84.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$35 @ 4.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$97 @ 77.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
No$130 @ 86.3¢
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.1¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$240 @ 75.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
No$25 @ 62.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 27.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$81 @ 81.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 17.3¢
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?Lost
Yes$9 @ 52.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$120 @ 80.4¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?Won
No$63 @ 62.9¢
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$68 @ 85.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$904 @ 79.1¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Won
No$46 @ 22.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$88 @ 64.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$35 @ 46.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$428 @ 76.5¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 59.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Won
No$55 @ 86.0¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
No$433 @ 86.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$375 @ 79.1¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$510 @ 85.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$94 @ 61.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 69.6¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
Yes$18 @ 35.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 1.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Won
No$63 @ 31.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Lost
Yes$12 @ 3.6¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$52 @ 67.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 25.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 4?Lost
No$52 @ 41.9¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$23 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 46.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$193	65.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$39	39.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	No	$35	35.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$22	9.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$21	30.7¢
Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026?	—	No	$16	60.3¢

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$193 @ 65.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$39 @ 39.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
No$35 @ 35.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
Yes$22 @ 9.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$21 @ 30.7¢
Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026?—
No$16 @ 60.3¢