0xe947…7a45

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe947b0748c6f37c656c7674636f93b4c527c7a45
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-3.7pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

48% @ 52.1¢

Brier

0.195

Resolved

2178

Avg size

$75

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (299/656)	+10%	656
Politics	53% (42/79)	-28%	79
Geopolitics	100% (6/6)	+47%	6
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Sports	100% (1/1)	+59%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+52%	1

Other656 bets
Hit rate
46% (299/656)
ROI
+10%
Politics79 bets
Hit rate
53% (42/79)
ROI
-28%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+47%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+59%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+52%

Track record

47% hit · 349/745

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
200-219 MPs vote to impeach Yoon?	Yes	$15	44.0¢	Lost
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	No	$8	67.4¢	Lost
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?	No	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election?	No	$4	6.0¢	Lost
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$49	41.4¢	Lost
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$40	26.0¢	Lost
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	$36	1.2¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$658	78.0¢	Won
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?	Yes	$4	36.0¢	Lost
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?	No	$209	6.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	No	$35	54.0¢	Lost
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?	Yes	$11	47.0¢	Won
Will the Japan Innovation Party win between 30 and 34 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?	No	$62	49.9¢	Won
Trump x Xi talk before July?	No	$115	26.7¢	Lost
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?	No	$9	67.0¢	Lost
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?	Yes	$52	85.0¢	Won
Will HRPP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$7	50.0¢	Lost
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$54	83.5¢	Won
South Korean President impeached by Friday?	Yes	$200	19.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$3	25.0¢	Won
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Presidential Election?	No	$624	77.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	No	$14	49.0¢	Lost
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Yes	$27	7.8¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	No	$95	83.0¢	Won
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?	Yes	$74	60.2¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	No	$24	70.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	No	$38	53.4¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	No	$10	87.0¢	Lost
Biden seen in public Wednesday?	No	$5	87.5¢	Lost
Choo Kyung-ho in jail by October 31?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$38	56.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?	Yes	$4	75.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$23	19.8¢	Lost
Will the Constitutional Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?	Yes	$3	2.0¢	Lost
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?	No	$10	13.0¢	Won
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	18.4¢	Lost
Trump x Xi talk by Friday?	No	$200	66.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week?	No	$2	62.0¢	Won
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	No	$303	41.8¢	Lost
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	Yes	$254	71.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?	No	$267	37.1¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen before November?	No	$29	60.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$13	64.8¢	Won
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	No	$13	10.6¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$16	34.0¢	Lost
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$171	83.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?	No	$145	38.8¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?	Yes	$9	63.0¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens	Yes	$176	47.8¢	Won

200-219 MPs vote to impeach Yoon?Lost
Yes$15 @ 44.0¢
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
No$8 @ 67.4¢
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?Lost
No$1 @ 5.0¢
Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election?Lost
No$4 @ 6.0¢
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Lost
Yes$49 @ 41.4¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$40 @ 26.0¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Lost
No$36 @ 1.2¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$658 @ 78.0¢
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 36.0¢
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?Won
No$209 @ 6.6¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Lost
No$35 @ 54.0¢
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?Won
Yes$11 @ 47.0¢
Will the Japan Innovation Party win between 30 and 34 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?Won
No$62 @ 49.9¢
Trump x Xi talk before July?Lost
No$115 @ 26.7¢
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?Lost
No$9 @ 67.0¢
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?Won
Yes$52 @ 85.0¢
Will HRPP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$7 @ 50.0¢
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$54 @ 83.5¢
South Korean President impeached by Friday?Lost
Yes$200 @ 19.9¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$3 @ 25.0¢
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Presidential Election?Won
No$624 @ 77.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Lost
No$14 @ 49.0¢
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
Yes$27 @ 7.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
No$95 @ 83.0¢
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?Won
Yes$74 @ 60.2¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
No$24 @ 70.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
No$38 @ 53.4¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Lost
No$10 @ 87.0¢
Biden seen in public Wednesday? Lost
No$5 @ 87.5¢
Choo Kyung-ho in jail by October 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$38 @ 56.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 75.0¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceLost
Switzerland$23 @ 19.8¢
Will the Constitutional Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.0¢
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?Won
No$10 @ 13.0¢
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 18.4¢
Trump x Xi talk by Friday?Won
No$200 @ 66.2¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week?Won
No$2 @ 62.0¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?Lost
No$303 @ 41.8¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?Won
Yes$254 @ 71.2¢
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?Won
No$267 @ 37.1¢
Israel military action against Yemen before November?Lost
No$29 @ 60.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 64.8¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Lost
No$13 @ 10.6¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$16 @ 34.0¢
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Won
Yes$171 @ 83.1¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Lost
No$145 @ 38.8¢
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 63.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens Won
Yes$176 @ 47.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	No	$2.2k	85.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$1.2k	66.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$1000	61.8¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$554	70.2¢
Will Chen Pin-an win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?	Politics	No	$344	74.9¢
Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Politics	No	$146	56.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$145	78.4¢
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	Politics	Yes	$132	60.0¢
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	No	$127	69.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$116	49.3¢
Will PLQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?	Politics	Yes	$114	61.5¢
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$114	58.0¢
Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	Politics	Yes	$96	44.2¢
Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	Politics	No	$93	61.9¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$84	73.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$83	49.6¢
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$72	41.9¢
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$71	73.3¢
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	Politics	No	$69	69.9¢
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$66	58.0¢
Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$52	64.2¢
Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Politics	Yes	$52	52.6¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$50	77.0¢
Will Chen Yu-jen win the next Kinmen County Magistrate election?	Politics	Yes	$50	59.0¢
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$49	14.6¢
Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$48	63.3¢
Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Politics	No	$43	70.0¢
Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?	Politics	Yes	$39	74.5¢
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?	Politics	Yes	$38	25.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Politics	Yes	$37	70.0¢

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
No$2.2k @ 85.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$1.2k @ 66.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$1000 @ 61.8¢
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$554 @ 70.2¢
Will Chen Pin-an win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?Politics
No$344 @ 74.9¢
Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Politics
No$146 @ 56.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$145 @ 78.4¢
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?Politics
Yes$132 @ 60.0¢
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?Politics
No$127 @ 69.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$116 @ 49.3¢
Will PLQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?Politics
Yes$114 @ 61.5¢
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$114 @ 58.0¢
Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?Politics
Yes$96 @ 44.2¢
Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?Politics
No$93 @ 61.9¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$84 @ 73.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$83 @ 49.6¢
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$72 @ 41.9¢
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$71 @ 73.3¢
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Politics
No$69 @ 69.9¢
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$66 @ 58.0¢
Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?Politics
Yes$52 @ 64.2¢
Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?Politics
Yes$52 @ 52.6¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$50 @ 77.0¢
Will Chen Yu-jen win the next Kinmen County Magistrate election?Politics
Yes$50 @ 59.0¢
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?Politics
Yes$49 @ 14.6¢
Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?Politics
Yes$48 @ 63.3¢
Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?Politics
No$43 @ 70.0¢
Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?Politics
Yes$39 @ 74.5¢
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?Politics
Yes$38 @ 25.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Politics
Yes$37 @ 70.0¢