0xe904…2d9f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe904443b4084bbda216e344353a44cd4324a2d9f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.0pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

56% @ 51.1¢

Brier

0.193

Resolved

1606

Avg size

$112

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (213/389)	+21%	389
Culture	69% (41/59)	+19%	59
Sports	38% (8/21)	-25%	21
Politics	30% (3/10)	-22%	10
Economy	60% (6/10)	+56%	10
Tech	50% (1/2)	-9%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+69%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+66%	1

Other389 bets
Hit rate
55% (213/389)
ROI
+21%
Culture59 bets
Hit rate
69% (41/59)
ROI
+19%
Sports21 bets
Hit rate
38% (8/21)
ROI
-25%
Politics10 bets
Hit rate
30% (3/10)
ROI
-22%
Economy10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
+56%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-9%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+69%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+66%

Track record

56% hit · 274/493

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Choosin’ Texas by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?	Yes	$730	77.8¢	Won
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?	Yes	$69	27.5¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?	No	$265	19.3¢	Lost
Will Choosin’ Texas by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 7?	Yes	$77	28.1¢	Lost
Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 225k and 250k?	Yes	$5	14.7¢	Lost
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	No	$48	50.0¢	Won
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	$97	26.8¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	$505	17.7¢	Lost
Spread: Texans (-1.5)	Texans	$200	49.0¢	Lost
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	$73	16.0¢	Lost
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?	Yes	$82	24.0¢	Lost
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	$383	75.6¢	Won
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $14m?	Yes	$224	44.7¢	Lost
Will "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?	No	$1.4k	43.8¢	Lost
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?	No	$97	61.2¢	Lost
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?	Yes	$108	88.0¢	Won
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	Yes	$254	44.0¢	Lost
Will 'Cloud 9' - Megan Moroney debut week album sales be at least 45k?	Yes	$12	64.5¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	$343	65.1¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	$1.3k	57.8¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$48	69.0¢	Won
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	Yes	$298	42.0¢	Lost
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	$685	75.0¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Knicks	Spurs	$203	47.0¢	Won
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?	Yes	$252	21.0¢	Lost
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?	Yes	$136	23.8¢	Won
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between 200k and 225k?	Yes	$3	14.1¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$654	26.4¢	Lost
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?	No	$495	84.8¢	Won
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?	No	$226	87.8¢	Won
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$311	76.7¢	Won
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 26.75 and 27.5 million views on day 4?	Yes	$118	57.6¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m?	Yes	$51	60.2¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	$998	54.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$370	74.0¢	Won
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	No	$26	72.4¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?	Yes	$154	35.8¢	Lost
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?	Yes	$181	23.3¢	Lost
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	No	$378	53.3¢	Won
Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in June?	No	$6	81.0¢	Won
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?	Yes	$102	23.0¢	Won
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?	Yes	$109	79.6¢	Won
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 67 and 68 million views on day 4?	Yes	$21	20.9¢	Lost
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Yes	$326	37.1¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	$203	68.0¢	Lost
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	$179	32.2¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?	Yes	$266	39.1¢	Lost
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	Yes	$504	85.5¢	Won
Will 'The Great Satan' - Rob Zombie debut week album sales be less than 20k?	Yes	$22	88.3¢	Won

Will Choosin’ Texas by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?Won
Yes$730 @ 77.8¢
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?Lost
Yes$69 @ 27.5¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?Lost
No$265 @ 19.3¢
Will Choosin’ Texas by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 7?Lost
Yes$77 @ 28.1¢
Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 225k and 250k?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.7¢
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Won
No$48 @ 50.0¢
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Lost
Yes$97 @ 26.8¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Lost
Yes$505 @ 17.7¢
Spread: Texans (-1.5)Lost
Texans$200 @ 49.0¢
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?Lost
Yes$73 @ 16.0¢
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?Lost
Yes$82 @ 24.0¢
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
Yes$383 @ 75.6¢
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $14m?Lost
Yes$224 @ 44.7¢
Will "One Night Only" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?Lost
No$1.4k @ 43.8¢
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?Lost
No$97 @ 61.2¢
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?Won
Yes$108 @ 88.0¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?Lost
Yes$254 @ 44.0¢
Will 'Cloud 9' - Megan Moroney debut week album sales be at least 45k?Won
Yes$12 @ 64.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Won
Yes$343 @ 65.1¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 57.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$48 @ 69.0¢
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?Lost
Yes$298 @ 42.0¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24?Lost
Yes$685 @ 75.0¢
Spurs vs. KnicksWon
Spurs$203 @ 47.0¢
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?Lost
Yes$252 @ 21.0¢
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?Won
Yes$136 @ 23.8¢
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between 200k and 225k?Lost
Yes$3 @ 14.1¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Lost
Yes$654 @ 26.4¢
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?Won
No$495 @ 84.8¢
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?Won
No$226 @ 87.8¢
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
No$311 @ 76.7¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 26.75 and 27.5 million views on day 4?Won
Yes$118 @ 57.6¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m?Won
Yes$51 @ 60.2¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Won
Yes$998 @ 54.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$370 @ 74.0¢
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Won
No$26 @ 72.4¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Lost
Yes$154 @ 35.8¢
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?Lost
Yes$181 @ 23.3¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Won
No$378 @ 53.3¢
Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in June?Won
No$6 @ 81.0¢
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?Won
Yes$102 @ 23.0¢
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?Won
Yes$109 @ 79.6¢
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 67 and 68 million views on day 4?Lost
Yes$21 @ 20.9¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Lost
Yes$326 @ 37.1¢
Knicks vs. SpursLost
Spurs$203 @ 68.0¢
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Lost
Yes$179 @ 32.2¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?Lost
Yes$266 @ 39.1¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Won
Yes$504 @ 85.5¢
Will 'The Great Satan' - Rob Zombie debut week album sales be less than 20k?Won
Yes$22 @ 88.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$3.7k	76.6¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?	Culture	No	$2.0k	76.1¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 119m by October 31?	Culture	No	$1.4k	90.6¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$1.3k	48.4¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 250k?	Culture	No	$1.2k	49.1¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$1.1k	55.8¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 100k?	Culture	Yes	$1.1k	91.2¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 350k?	Culture	No	$1.0k	88.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$999	75.2¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 116m by October 31?	Culture	No	$901	86.4¢
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$721	64.9¢
Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Culture	Yes	$701	43.3¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 10?	Culture	Yes	$628	67.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 970m by October 31?	Culture	Yes	$519	88.1¢
Will AC Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Sports	Yes	$500	12.2¢
Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	Culture	No	$492	55.2¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	Culture	Yes	$441	32.7¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?	Culture	Yes	$427	68.3¢
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Culture	Yes	$357	32.3¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?	Culture	No	$313	81.9¢
Spread: Texans (-3.5)	Sports	Texans	$300	46.0¢
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?	Culture	Yes	$296	64.3¢
Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Culture	Yes	$291	14.6¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 190k?	Culture	No	$273	87.0¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 500k?	Culture	No	$262	79.3¢
Spread: Rams (-3.5)	Sports	Rams	$200	47.3¢
Spread: Cardinals (-2.5)	Sports	Cardinals	$200	52.0¢
Spread: Bills (-6.5)	Sports	Patriots	$200	49.0¢
Jaguars vs. Bengals	Sports	Jaguars	$200	43.0¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?	Culture	Yes	$180	47.4¢

Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Culture
Yes$3.7k @ 76.6¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?Culture
No$2.0k @ 76.1¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 119m by October 31?Culture
No$1.4k @ 90.6¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?Economy
Yes$1.3k @ 48.4¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 250k?Culture
No$1.2k @ 49.1¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Economy
Yes$1.1k @ 55.8¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 100k?Culture
Yes$1.1k @ 91.2¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 350k?Culture
No$1.0k @ 88.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?Economy
Yes$999 @ 75.2¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 116m by October 31?Culture
No$901 @ 86.4¢
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?Culture
Yes$721 @ 64.9¢
Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Culture
Yes$701 @ 43.3¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 10?Culture
Yes$628 @ 67.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 970m by October 31?Culture
Yes$519 @ 88.1¢
Will AC Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?Sports
Yes$500 @ 12.2¢
Will Drake release a new album by December 31?Culture
No$492 @ 55.2¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?Culture
Yes$441 @ 32.7¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?Culture
Yes$427 @ 68.3¢
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Culture
Yes$357 @ 32.3¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?Culture
No$313 @ 81.9¢
Spread: Texans (-3.5)Sports
Texans$300 @ 46.0¢
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?Culture
Yes$296 @ 64.3¢
Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Culture
Yes$291 @ 14.6¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 190k?Culture
No$273 @ 87.0¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 500k?Culture
No$262 @ 79.3¢
Spread: Rams (-3.5)Sports
Rams$200 @ 47.3¢
Spread: Cardinals (-2.5)Sports
Cardinals$200 @ 52.0¢
Spread: Bills (-6.5)Sports
Patriots$200 @ 49.0¢
Jaguars vs. BengalsSports
Jaguars$200 @ 43.0¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?Culture
Yes$180 @ 47.4¢