0xe74d…22fd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe74d4976e5e034182d708a3b9df602e72d4722fd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.7pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

31% @ 25.7¢

Brier

0.155

Resolved

4146

Avg size

$141

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (141/430)	+18%	430
Crypto	14% (3/22)	+236%	22
Tech	40% (8/20)	-6%	20
Sports	26% (5/19)	-74%	19
Politics	22% (2/9)	-45%	9
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other430 bets
Hit rate
33% (141/430)
ROI
+18%
Crypto22 bets
Hit rate
14% (3/22)
ROI
+236%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
40% (8/20)
ROI
-6%
Sports19 bets
Hit rate
26% (5/19)
ROI
-74%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
22% (2/9)
ROI
-45%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 159/502

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House	Yes	$5	4.7¢	Lost
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 6-7b one week after launch?	Yes	$6	7.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11?	No	$12	0.6¢	Lost
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31?	Yes	$177	51.3¢	Won
Pakistan ODI Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 3)	Sri Lanka	$110	11.0¢	Lost
Will Vladimir Putin say Trump 5 or more times in his upcoming interview with Tucker Carlson?	No	$189	63.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference?	No	$35	65.8¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$358	65.0¢	Won
Will Vitality win CS:GO BLAST Premier Fall Final 2024?	No	$4	52.0¢	Won
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?	Yes	$625	52.2¢	Won
Hornets vs. Knicks	Knicks	$141	4.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 21?	Yes	$385	2.3¢	Lost
Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?	Yes	$3	2.6¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$233	7.8¢	Won
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024?	Yes	$203	23.8¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	$300	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$945	59.8¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$731	10.5¢	Lost
Will Vitality win the BLAST Rivals Season 1 Tournament?	No	$16	3.1¢	Lost
Will Gemini generate images of people again in February?	Yes	$30	6.2¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$88	2.2¢	Lost
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4?	No	$1.3k	25.7¢	Won
Will FaZe win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?	Yes	$19	9.3¢	Lost
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?	Yes	$148	5.0¢	Lost
Will April 2024 show an increase between 1.14°C-1.19°C?	Yes	$53	4.1¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4.4k	16.6¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$535	26.8¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	$175	1.2¢	Lost
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?	Yes	$743	21.9¢	Lost
CA-45 election: Tran (D) vs. Steel (R)	Steel	$323	60.0¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$1.3k	35.9¢	Won
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 5-6b one week after launch?	Yes	$244	55.6¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24?	Yes	$506	4.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	Yes	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?	No	$52	14.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2024?	Yes	$0	9.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19?	Yes	$383	5.8¢	Lost
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency?	Yes	$0	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during Michigan rally?	No	$431	51.3¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$221	11.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$8.1k	4.8¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$5.0k	45.6¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 75-84 times?	Yes	$108	27.0¢	Won
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$2.3k	57.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	$415	5.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 16?	Yes	$643	12.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?	Yes	$5	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$600	38.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	62.7¢	Lost

2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R HouseLost
Yes$5 @ 4.7¢
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 6-7b one week after launch?Lost
Yes$6 @ 7.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11?Lost
No$12 @ 0.6¢
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world on January 31?Won
Yes$177 @ 51.3¢
Pakistan ODI Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 3)Lost
Sri Lanka$110 @ 11.0¢
Will Vladimir Putin say Trump 5 or more times in his upcoming interview with Tucker Carlson?Won
No$189 @ 63.0¢
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference? Won
No$35 @ 65.8¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$358 @ 65.0¢
Will Vitality win CS:GO BLAST Premier Fall Final 2024?Won
No$4 @ 52.0¢
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?Won
Yes$625 @ 52.2¢
Hornets vs. KnicksLost
Knicks$141 @ 4.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 21?Lost
Yes$385 @ 2.3¢
Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.6¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$233 @ 7.8¢
Ethereum all time high in Q2 2024?Lost
Yes$203 @ 23.8¢
Thunder vs. LakersLost
Lakers$300 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$945 @ 59.8¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$731 @ 10.5¢
Will Vitality win the BLAST Rivals Season 1 Tournament?Lost
No$16 @ 3.1¢
Will Gemini generate images of people again in February?Lost
Yes$30 @ 6.2¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$88 @ 2.2¢
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4?Won
No$1.3k @ 25.7¢
Will FaZe win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?Lost
Yes$19 @ 9.3¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$148 @ 5.0¢
Will April 2024 show an increase between 1.14°C-1.19°C?Lost
Yes$53 @ 4.1¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4.4k @ 16.6¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$535 @ 26.8¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$175 @ 1.2¢
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?Lost
Yes$743 @ 21.9¢
CA-45 election: Tran (D) vs. Steel (R)Lost
Steel$323 @ 60.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$1.3k @ 35.9¢
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) 5-6b one week after launch?Won
Yes$244 @ 55.6¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24?Lost
Yes$506 @ 4.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Lost
No$52 @ 14.0¢
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2024?Won
Yes$0 @ 9.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19?Lost
Yes$383 @ 5.8¢
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during Michigan rally?Lost
No$431 @ 51.3¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Lost
No$221 @ 11.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$8.1k @ 4.8¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 45.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
Will Elon tweet 75-84 times?Won
Yes$108 @ 27.0¢
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 57.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?Lost
Yes$415 @ 5.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 16?Lost
Yes$643 @ 12.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$600 @ 38.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 62.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$5.2k	61.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$2.1k	52.3¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Tech	Yes	$774	57.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?	Politics	Yes	$204	4.6¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$83	4.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?	Politics	Yes	$61	6.1¢

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$5.2k @ 61.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$2.1k @ 52.3¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Tech
Yes$774 @ 57.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?Politics
Yes$204 @ 4.6¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$83 @ 4.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?Politics
Yes$61 @ 6.1¢