0xe5dc…35f9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe5dcd52630848fd7803cd13c09208e8876f835f9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.5pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

60% @ 56.1¢

Brier

0.179

Resolved

1187

Avg size

$110

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	65% (56/86)	+23%	86
Other	63% (36/57)	-23%	57
Geopolitics	100% (19/19)	+28%	19
Culture	50% (2/4)	+4%	4
Tech	67% (2/3)	+26%	3
Sports	33% (1/3)	-90%	3
Science	100% (1/1)	+28%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+19%	1

Politics86 bets
Hit rate
65% (56/86)
ROI
+23%
Other57 bets
Hit rate
63% (36/57)
ROI
-23%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
100% (19/19)
ROI
+28%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+4%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+26%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-90%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+28%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+19%

Track record

68% hit · 118/174

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	$8	1.2¢	Lost
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?	No	$174	94.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	$443	91.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in New York?	No	$170	76.6¢	Won
Will Sol Zanetti win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	$143	79.3¢	Won
Will Claude Villeneuve win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?	No	$259	79.6¢	Won
Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?	Yes	$277	47.3¢	Lost
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	$163	69.2¢	Lost
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	$567	73.0¢	Lost
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	$67	30.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$523	81.4¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	No	$349	78.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$575	77.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$566	85.0¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$870	78.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$63	66.4¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$351	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	85.5¢	Won
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	No	$426	67.9¢	Lost
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	$291	41.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$636	53.2¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$302	34.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$1.9k	68.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$36	25.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$401	71.5¢	Won
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$737	33.1¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	No	$110	33.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$1.6k	79.6¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$1	10.9¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$355	68.8¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$2.9k	69.9¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$1.1k	20.6¢	Lost
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$113	74.0¢	Won
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?	No	$125	77.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$417	79.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$1.5k	70.1¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$460	68.2¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$2.9k	79.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$1.1k	62.1¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$37	54.9¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$524	35.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$1.4k	49.3¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in July?	No	$244	86.9¢	Won
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	$371	35.4¢	Lost
Israeli forces enter Beirut by May 31?	No	$43	81.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$1.1k	82.1¢	Won
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$93	65.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$82	74.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	No	$290	86.6¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	No	$683	84.1¢	Won

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Lost
No$8 @ 1.2¢
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?Won
No$174 @ 94.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Won
Yes$443 @ 91.1¢
Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in New York?Won
No$170 @ 76.6¢
Will Sol Zanetti win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?Won
Yes$143 @ 79.3¢
Will Claude Villeneuve win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?Won
No$259 @ 79.6¢
Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?Lost
Yes$277 @ 47.3¢
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?Lost
No$163 @ 69.2¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Lost
Yes$567 @ 73.0¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Lost
Yes$67 @ 30.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$523 @ 81.4¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Won
No$349 @ 78.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$575 @ 77.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$566 @ 85.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$870 @ 78.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$63 @ 66.4¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$351 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 85.5¢
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Lost
No$426 @ 67.9¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Won
Yes$291 @ 41.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$636 @ 53.2¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$302 @ 34.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$1.9k @ 68.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$36 @ 25.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$401 @ 71.5¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$737 @ 33.1¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Won
No$110 @ 33.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$1.6k @ 79.6¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$1 @ 10.9¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$355 @ 68.8¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$2.9k @ 69.9¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 20.6¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$113 @ 74.0¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?Won
No$125 @ 77.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$417 @ 79.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 70.1¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$460 @ 68.2¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$2.9k @ 79.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 62.1¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$37 @ 54.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$524 @ 35.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 49.3¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in July?Won
No$244 @ 86.9¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Lost
No$371 @ 35.4¢
Israeli forces enter Beirut by May 31?Won
No$43 @ 81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 82.1¢
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
No$93 @ 65.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$82 @ 74.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?Won
No$290 @ 86.6¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Won
No$683 @ 84.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$222	66.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$61	72.0¢

Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?Politics
Yes$222 @ 66.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$61 @ 72.0¢