0xe5c2…2b81

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe5c20ffb947f3e12b43e8d472105d9fbf5772b81
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.8pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

59% @ 51.3¢

Brier

0.181

Resolved

631

Avg size

$11

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	63% (145/231)	+15%	231
Politics	96% (27/28)	+15%	28
Sports	50% (10/20)	+15%	20
Geopolitics	75% (9/12)	-6%	12
Culture	50% (4/8)	-3%	8
Science	29% (2/7)	-53%	7
Tech	100% (4/4)	+24%	4
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+19%	2

Other231 bets
Hit rate
63% (145/231)
ROI
+15%
Politics28 bets
Hit rate
96% (27/28)
ROI
+15%
Sports20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
+15%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
75% (9/12)
ROI
-6%
Culture8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-3%
Science7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-53%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+24%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+19%

Track record

65% hit · 203/312

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	$15	75.5¢	Won
Will SPOLU get more than 26% of the vote in the Czech election?	Yes	$27	2.6¢	Lost
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$4	37.0¢	Lost
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5	Under	$169	33.3¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February?	No	$17	89.0¢	Won
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?	No	$21	69.4¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	$30	85.9¢	Won
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Lost
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?	Yes	$19	8.1¢	Lost
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$5	37.0¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$6	27.0¢	Lost
Will Evan Bouchard win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?	Yes	$3	10.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$10	89.0¢	Won
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	Yes	$20	32.0¢	Lost
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?	No	$15	68.9¢	Won
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?	Yes	$9	33.4¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$8	84.9¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$5	71.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$8	26.0¢	Won
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$19	77.0¢	Won
Set Handicap: Zandschulp (-1.5) vs Dzumhur (+1.5)	Zandschulp	$18	63.2¢	Won
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Yes	$9	87.0¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$13	84.0¢	Won
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?	Yes	$1	1.8¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$25	84.0¢	Won
Will an Individual Neutral Athlete record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$40	75.2¢	Won
Will Mathilde Gremaud (SUI) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	$4	79.0¢	Won
Will Johannes Lochner (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 4 Man (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	$40	87.3¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?	No	$20	80.2¢	Won
Will Johannes Klaebo (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	No	$3	14.0¢	Lost
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?	No	$7	79.0¢	Lost
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$7	66.0¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$41	65.9¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?	No	$20	77.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$28	80.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$18	5.0¢	Lost
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?	No	$270	77.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	No	$95	84.5¢	Won
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	$10	67.0¢	Won
Will Trump drink water during the State of the Union?	No	$5	82.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	$56	77.8¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	Yes	$11	66.6¢	Won
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$8	39.0¢	Lost
Will Ben Shelton Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	$28	54.4¢	Won
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?	Yes	$9	45.0¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$19	79.9¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	No	$5	57.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	$10	57.0¢	Won

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Won
Yes$15 @ 75.5¢
Will SPOLU get more than 26% of the vote in the Czech election?Lost
Yes$27 @ 2.6¢
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 37.0¢
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$169 @ 33.3¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February?Won
No$17 @ 89.0¢
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?Lost
No$21 @ 69.4¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?Won
No$30 @ 85.9¢
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Lost
Yes$19 @ 8.1¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$5 @ 37.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 27.0¢
Will Evan Bouchard win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$10 @ 89.0¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Lost
Yes$20 @ 32.0¢
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?Won
No$15 @ 68.9¢
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?Lost
Yes$9 @ 33.4¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$8 @ 84.9¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 71.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$8 @ 26.0¢
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Won
Yes$19 @ 77.0¢
Set Handicap: Zandschulp (-1.5) vs Dzumhur (+1.5)Won
Zandschulp$18 @ 63.2¢
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?Won
Yes$9 @ 87.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$13 @ 84.0¢
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$25 @ 84.0¢
Will an Individual Neutral Athlete record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
Yes$40 @ 75.2¢
Will Mathilde Gremaud (SUI) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Won
Yes$4 @ 79.0¢
Will Johannes Lochner (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 4 Man (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Won
Yes$40 @ 87.3¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?Won
No$20 @ 80.2¢
Will Johannes Klaebo (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Lost
No$3 @ 14.0¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?Lost
No$7 @ 79.0¢
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$7 @ 66.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$41 @ 65.9¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?Won
No$20 @ 77.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$28 @ 80.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 5.0¢
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?Won
No$270 @ 77.1¢
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?Won
No$95 @ 84.5¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump drink water during the State of the Union?Won
No$5 @ 82.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?Won
Yes$56 @ 77.8¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Won
Yes$11 @ 66.6¢
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$8 @ 39.0¢
Will Ben Shelton Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?Won
Yes$28 @ 54.4¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?Lost
Yes$9 @ 45.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$19 @ 79.9¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 57.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Won
No$10 @ 57.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Science	No	$76	92.1¢
Will Casper Ruud Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Sports	No	$55	91.7¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$53	88.3¢
Will Arthur Fils Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	—	Yes	$51	53.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$40	79.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$39	89.2¢
Will Ben Shelton Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	—	Yes	$35	88.0¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$33	87.7¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$32	90.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$32	87.8¢
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	No	$30	91.8¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Politics	No	$30	83.0¢
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Science	No	$29	91.7¢
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?	Science	No	$28	91.1¢
Will Daniil Medvedev Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	—	Yes	$28	86.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$28	93.0¢
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?	Science	No	$28	93.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$27	91.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$27	90.0¢
Will Jiri Lehecka Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	—	No	$27	76.7¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	Other	No	$27	87.1¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$26	85.7¢
Will Auston Matthews record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season?	Sports	Yes	$25	73.5¢
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	Crypto	No	$24	88.4¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$23	77.0¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	No	$23	74.0¢
Will Casper Ruud Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	—	No	$22	87.2¢
Will Mark Scheifele record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Sports	No	$21	89.6¢
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$21	97.8¢
Will the Carolina Hurricanes record 90+ points?	Sports	Yes	$20	90.0¢

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Science
No$76 @ 92.1¢
Will Casper Ruud Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?Sports
No$55 @ 91.7¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$53 @ 88.3¢
Will Arthur Fils Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings—
Yes$51 @ 53.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$40 @ 79.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$39 @ 89.2¢
Will Ben Shelton Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings—
Yes$35 @ 88.0¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$33 @ 87.7¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
No$32 @ 90.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$32 @ 87.8¢
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
No$30 @ 91.8¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 83.0¢
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?Science
No$29 @ 91.7¢
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?Science
No$28 @ 91.1¢
Will Daniil Medvedev Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings—
Yes$28 @ 86.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
No$28 @ 93.0¢
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?Science
No$28 @ 93.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$27 @ 91.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$27 @ 90.0¢
Will Jiri Lehecka Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings—
No$27 @ 76.7¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?Other
No$27 @ 87.1¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$26 @ 85.7¢
Will Auston Matthews record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season?Sports
Yes$25 @ 73.5¢
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?Crypto
No$24 @ 88.4¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$23 @ 77.0¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
No$23 @ 74.0¢
Will Casper Ruud Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings—
No$22 @ 87.2¢
Will Mark Scheifele record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?Sports
No$21 @ 89.6¢
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 97.8¢
Will the Carolina Hurricanes record 90+ points?Sports
Yes$20 @ 90.0¢