0xe4e6…4bd4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe4e6aa2f9eb66b76d372d80cd91f6bc592d04bd4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.6pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

65% @ 56.1¢

Brier

0.166

Resolved

1231

Avg size

$228

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (88/174)	+4%	174
Politics	50% (10/20)	+13%	20
Crypto	82% (14/17)	+48%	17
Sports	40% (4/10)	-93%	10
Tech	86% (6/7)	+23%	7
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other174 bets
Hit rate
51% (88/174)
ROI
+4%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
+13%
Crypto17 bets
Hit rate
82% (14/17)
ROI
+48%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
-93%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+23%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

53% hit · 122/229

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 30, 2026?	Yes	$49	33.8¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?	Yes	$300	30.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?	Yes	$210	21.0¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by December 31?	Yes	$89	69.0¢	Won
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?	No	$347	4.1¢	Lost
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$1.1k	64.0¢	Won
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	$1.1k	75.2¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	$3.4k	61.0¢	Won
Spread: Knicks (-16.5)	Bulls	$11	57.0¢	Lost
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	$913	61.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$16.5k	86.3¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Foresee public sale?	No	$986	66.9¢	Won
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	$84	18.0¢	Won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$196	28.0¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	$590	37.3¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 27?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	$7.2k	80.9¢	Won
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	$63	57.8¢	Won
GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	$90	89.0¢	Won
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	$796	66.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$371	74.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$391	23.4¢	Lost
Over $2M committed to the Bitway public sale?	Yes	$220	11.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$160	39.0¢	Lost
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	No	$53	87.7¢	Lost
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150?	No	$336	17.8¢	Lost
Unitas Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	$0	0.4¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$222	42.5¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	$3.6k	87.1¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on November 25?	Yes	$294	49.0¢	Won
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18?	Yes	$2	30.0¢	Lost
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$1.3k	63.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$107	19.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$2.0k	79.6¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	$108	38.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	Yes	$184	45.0¢	Won
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	$5	52.0¢	Won
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$2.5k	35.1¢	Lost
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	$836	73.7¢	Won
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?	Yes	$878	74.8¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	Yes	$69	6.8¢	Lost
Over $3M committed to the Fabric public sale?	Yes	$890	89.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$316	79.0¢	Lost
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	$30	15.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$3.2k	81.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.2k	41.4¢	Won
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$90	45.0¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$190	63.3¢	Lost
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$49 @ 33.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?Lost
Yes$300 @ 30.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?Lost
Yes$210 @ 21.0¢
Trump renames AI by December 31?Won
Yes$89 @ 69.0¢
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?Lost
No$347 @ 4.1¢
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 64.0¢
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Lost
No$1.1k @ 75.2¢
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 61.0¢
Spread: Knicks (-16.5)Lost
Bulls$11 @ 57.0¢
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Won
No$913 @ 61.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$16.5k @ 86.3¢
Over $1M committed to the Foresee public sale?Won
No$986 @ 66.9¢
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?Won
Yes$84 @ 18.0¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Lost
No$196 @ 28.0¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
Yes$590 @ 37.3¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Won
No$7.2k @ 80.9¢
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Won
No$63 @ 57.8¢
GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?Won
Yes$90 @ 89.0¢
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch?Won
No$796 @ 66.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$371 @ 74.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$391 @ 23.4¢
Over $2M committed to the Bitway public sale?Lost
Yes$220 @ 11.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$160 @ 39.0¢
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Lost
No$53 @ 87.7¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150?Lost
No$336 @ 17.8¢
Unitas Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch?Lost
No$0 @ 0.4¢
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Lost
No$222 @ 42.5¢
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 87.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on November 25?Won
Yes$294 @ 49.0¢
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18?Lost
Yes$2 @ 30.0¢
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$1.3k @ 63.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$107 @ 19.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 79.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch?Won
No$108 @ 38.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?Won
Yes$184 @ 45.0¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?Won
Yes$5 @ 52.0¢
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?Lost
No$2.5k @ 35.1¢
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
No$836 @ 73.7¢
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?Won
Yes$878 @ 74.8¢
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?Lost
Yes$69 @ 6.8¢
Over $3M committed to the Fabric public sale?Won
Yes$890 @ 89.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$316 @ 79.0¢
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Lost
No$30 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$3.2k @ 81.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.2k @ 41.4¢
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
No$90 @ 45.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$190 @ 63.3¢
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Over $40M committed to the Jumper public sale?	Crypto	Yes	$581	66.1¢
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	Politics	No	$128	21.4¢
Over $35M committed to the Jumper public sale?	Crypto	Yes	$97	97.4¢

Over $40M committed to the Jumper public sale?Crypto
Yes$581 @ 66.1¢
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?Politics
No$128 @ 21.4¢
Over $35M committed to the Jumper public sale?Crypto
Yes$97 @ 97.4¢