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0xe4ac…448a
SharpEdge
-14.8pp
ROI
+18%
Win rate
17% @ 31.9¢
Brier
0.130
Resolved
304
Avg size
$250
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 71% (5/7) | +35% | 7 |
| Geopolitics | 50% (1/2) | -40% | 2 |
- Politics7 bets
- Hit rate
- 71% (5/7)
- ROI
- +35%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -40%
Track record
67% hit · 6/9| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | $19.5k | 61.5¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | $2.0k | 30.8¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | $4.3k | 67.1¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $7.2k | 24.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | $4.7k | 73.8¢ | Won |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | No | $8.5k | 83.8¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | $3.0k | 61.0¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | $8.6k | 13.1¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | $18.1k | 30.2¢ | Lost |
- No$19.5k @ 61.5¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 30.8¢
- No$4.3k @ 67.1¢
- Yes$7.2k @ 24.0¢
- No$4.7k @ 73.8¢
- No$8.5k @ 83.8¢
- No$3.0k @ 61.0¢
- Yes$8.6k @ 13.1¢
- Yes$18.1k @ 30.2¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $2.6k | 87.0¢ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Politics | Yes | $82 | 15.0¢ |
- Yes$2.6k @ 87.0¢
- Yes$82 @ 15.0¢