0xe3e4…8d04

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe3e4bded348f8608f322a598c19dbb3c42878d04
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-3.0pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

14% @ 17.3¢

Brier

0.079

Resolved

5066

Avg size

$32

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	28% (138/501)	+9%	501
Politics	39% (23/59)	+46%	59
Sports	22% (8/37)	-68%	37
Geopolitics	38% (3/8)	-48%	8
Economy	13% (1/8)	-51%	8
Crypto	33% (2/6)	-81%	6
Tech	60% (3/5)	+16%	5
Culture	50% (1/2)	-98%	2

Other501 bets
Hit rate
28% (138/501)
ROI
+9%
Politics59 bets
Hit rate
39% (23/59)
ROI
+46%
Sports37 bets
Hit rate
22% (8/37)
ROI
-68%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-48%
Economy8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
-51%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-81%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+16%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-98%

Track record

29% hit · 179/626

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$803	32.1¢	Lost
France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?	No	$61	96.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$68	10.5¢	Lost
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Yes	$103	41.1¢	Won
GPT ads by December 31?	Yes	$162	10.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31	Yes	$70	44.8¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$228	1.1¢	Lost
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$36	7.2¢	Lost
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$162	27.0¢	Lost
Trump meets with Carney before June?	No	$8	0.5¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$21	20.0¢	Lost
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?	Yes	$593	69.6¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?	Yes	$274	39.5¢	Won
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$369	77.0¢	Won
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?	Yes	$2	60.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$801	52.8¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$547	78.1¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?	No	$13	1.3¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$296	39.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$311	63.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	90k	$228	53.1¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	No	$176	50.3¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$75	30.2¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?	No	$171	17.1¢	Lost
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	Yes	$20	2.0¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$32	3.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June?	Yes	$23	40.0¢	Won
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	$225	15.0¢	Lost
Will Romania win on 2025-11-15?	Yes	$20	61.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$2.1k	11.6¢	Lost
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'retard' or 'retarded' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$13	0.8¢	Lost
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?	No	$16	3.2¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid beat Stade Brestois?	Yes	$201	84.0¢	Won
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	Yes	$240	48.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?	Yes	$140	14.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	31.0¢	Lost
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?	No	$457	65.9¢	Won
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	$498	58.7¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	73.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$375	50.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$61	25.0¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens	No	$129	44.9¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran before July?	Yes	$29	24.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 by Wednesday?	No	$240	40.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$67	27.0¢	Lost
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday?	Yes	$2	46.0¢	Won
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?	Yes	$105	22.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?	Yes	$389	35.7¢	Lost
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?	Yes	$292	35.2¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$803 @ 32.1¢
France declares state of emergency by October 21, 2026?Won
No$61 @ 96.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$68 @ 10.5¢
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Won
Yes$103 @ 41.1¢
GPT ads by December 31?Lost
Yes$162 @ 10.8¢
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31Won
Yes$70 @ 44.8¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
Yes$228 @ 1.1¢
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$36 @ 7.2¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$162 @ 27.0¢
Trump meets with Carney before June?Lost
No$8 @ 0.5¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$21 @ 20.0¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?Won
Yes$593 @ 69.6¢
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?Won
Yes$274 @ 39.5¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$369 @ 77.0¢
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?Won
Yes$2 @ 60.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$801 @ 52.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$547 @ 78.1¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Lost
No$13 @ 1.3¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$296 @ 39.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$311 @ 63.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?Lost
90k$228 @ 53.1¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Lost
No$176 @ 50.3¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$75 @ 30.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?Lost
No$171 @ 17.1¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$32 @ 3.2¢
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June?Won
Yes$23 @ 40.0¢
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?Lost
Yes$225 @ 15.0¢
Will Romania win on 2025-11-15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 61.0¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 11.6¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump say 'retard' or 'retarded' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.8¢
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?Lost
No$16 @ 3.2¢
Will Real Madrid beat Stade Brestois?Won
Yes$201 @ 84.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Won
Yes$240 @ 48.0¢
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?Won
Yes$140 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 31.0¢
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?Won
No$457 @ 65.9¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Won
Yes$498 @ 58.7¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 73.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$375 @ 50.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$61 @ 25.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens Lost
No$129 @ 44.9¢
Israel strikes Iran before July?Lost
Yes$29 @ 24.2¢
Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 by Wednesday?Won
No$240 @ 40.0¢
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 27.0¢
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday?Won
Yes$2 @ 46.0¢
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?Lost
Yes$105 @ 22.0¢
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?Lost
Yes$389 @ 35.7¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?Won
Yes$292 @ 35.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	11.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$920	92.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$475	23.7¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Economy	Yes	$437	17.3¢
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Economy	Yes	$363	19.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$344	22.9¢
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$336	3.4¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$320	32.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Economy	No	$319	11.4¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$248	2.5¢
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$230	46.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Economy	No	$163	20.4¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$161	16.1¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Economy	Yes	$126	22.8¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?	Crypto	Yes	$102	29.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$101	5.0¢
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$63	22.0¢
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026?	Sports	Yes	$36	18.0¢
Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Politics	No	$19	91.0¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Economy	No	$2	26.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	7.4¢

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 11.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$920 @ 92.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$475 @ 23.7¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Economy
Yes$437 @ 17.3¢
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Economy
Yes$363 @ 19.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$344 @ 22.9¢
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$336 @ 3.4¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
Yes$320 @ 32.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Economy
No$319 @ 11.4¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?Politics
Yes$248 @ 2.5¢
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$230 @ 46.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Economy
No$163 @ 20.4¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$161 @ 16.1¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Economy
Yes$126 @ 22.8¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?Crypto
Yes$102 @ 29.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$101 @ 5.0¢
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$63 @ 22.0¢
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026?Sports
Yes$36 @ 18.0¢
Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Politics
No$19 @ 91.0¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Economy
No$2 @ 26.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 7.4¢