0xe2cb…6e8f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe2cbf5c728f9bd2a5d561cd350c5f04128ca6e8f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.4pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

68% @ 63.1¢

Brier

0.187

Resolved

587

Avg size

$121

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	68% (30/44)	+6%	44
Other	60% (15/25)	-3%	25
Geopolitics	64% (7/11)	+7%	11
Crypto	71% (5/7)	+4%	7
Tech	75% (3/4)	+4%	4
Science	100% (2/2)	+33%	2

Politics44 bets
Hit rate
68% (30/44)
ROI
+6%
Other25 bets
Hit rate
60% (15/25)
ROI
-3%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
+7%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+4%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+4%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+33%

Track record

67% hit · 62/93

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$300	82.0¢	Lost
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$5	1.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$100	54.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$400	71.7¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$2.6k	85.2¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$606	81.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$710	73.2¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	$600	85.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	$610	76.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$600	87.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$800	71.3¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$1.2k	51.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$750	65.3¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	$160	59.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.6k	74.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$180	48.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$900	73.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	$304	83.6¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Yes	$162	37.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$590	76.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$2.0k	86.6¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$100	67.0¢	Won
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$433	82.7¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$430	81.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$682	52.8¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$437	56.9¢	Lost
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$100	77.0¢	Won
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$200	61.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$30	59.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$120	64.9¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$1.8k	88.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$220	71.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$225	81.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$300	27.3¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$125	21.8¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$2.0k	41.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	$156	44.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$4.6k	61.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$100	51.0¢	Lost
Megaquake by June 30?	No	$200	61.1¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	No	$103	51.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$260	21.4¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$500	73.8¢	Won
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	Down	$101	68.7¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	$194	80.0¢	Won
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?	No	$38	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	No	$100	73.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	Yes	$200	43.9¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	Yes	$200	59.2¢	Lost
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$80	77.0¢	Won

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$300 @ 82.0¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.5¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$100 @ 54.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$400 @ 71.7¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$2.6k @ 85.2¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$606 @ 81.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$710 @ 73.2¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Won
No$600 @ 85.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Won
No$610 @ 76.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$600 @ 87.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$800 @ 71.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$1.2k @ 51.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$750 @ 65.3¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Won
No$160 @ 59.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 74.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$180 @ 48.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$900 @ 73.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Won
No$304 @ 83.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Lost
Yes$162 @ 37.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$590 @ 76.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$2.0k @ 86.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$100 @ 67.0¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$433 @ 82.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$430 @ 81.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$682 @ 52.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$437 @ 56.9¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Won
No$100 @ 77.0¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$200 @ 61.0¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
Yes$30 @ 59.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$120 @ 64.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$1.8k @ 88.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$220 @ 71.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$225 @ 81.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$300 @ 27.3¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$125 @ 21.8¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 41.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?Won
No$156 @ 44.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$4.6k @ 61.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 51.0¢
Megaquake by June 30?Won
No$200 @ 61.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?Won
No$103 @ 51.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$260 @ 21.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$500 @ 73.8¢
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?Lost
Down$101 @ 68.7¢
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Won
No$194 @ 80.0¢
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?Won
No$38 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?Lost
No$100 @ 73.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 43.9¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Lost
Yes$200 @ 59.2¢
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Won
Yes$80 @ 77.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.3k	62.2¢

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$1.3k @ 62.2¢