0xe2b4…3c5a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe2b44168f9c361a06a64ed3fe0e858634e883c5a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.4pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

34% @ 30.9¢

Brier

0.130

Resolved

1278

Avg size

$45

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	28% (51/182)	+18%	182
Sports	21% (30/141)	+16%	141
Politics	41% (39/94)	+13%	94
Crypto	38% (18/47)	+8%	47
Tech	42% (18/43)	+5%	43
Geopolitics	14% (1/7)	-17%	7
Economy	17% (1/6)	-83%	6
Business	17% (1/6)	-56%	6
Culture	0% (0/3)	-100%	3

Other182 bets
Hit rate
28% (51/182)
ROI
+18%
Sports141 bets
Hit rate
21% (30/141)
ROI
+16%
Politics94 bets
Hit rate
41% (39/94)
ROI
+13%
Crypto47 bets
Hit rate
38% (18/47)
ROI
+8%
Tech43 bets
Hit rate
42% (18/43)
ROI
+5%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-17%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-83%
Business6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-56%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%

Track record

30% hit · 159/529

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	$613	74.5¢	Won
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Austria?	Yes	$14	11.0¢	Won
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	$14	6.6¢	Lost
Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	$64	88.4¢	Won
Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	6.1¢	Lost
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 England?	Yes	$26	0.8¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	Yes	$30	0.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	$40	80.2¢	Lost
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	$38	7.0¢	Lost
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$367	8.6¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	41.8¢	Lost
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$177	40.1¢	Won
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	Yes	$3	10.5¢	Lost
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$71	83.6¢	Won
Will Alisson Becker win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	7.0¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	$15	13.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	$13	43.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	$6	69.0¢	Won
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	$3	1.4¢	Won
Spread: South Africa (-2.5)	South Africa	$3	1.3¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	$80	25.7¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$1.8k	86.0¢	Won
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$31	2.3¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$3.5k	82.7¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$48	9.3¢	Lost
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?	Yes	$64	87.6¢	Won
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets	Miami Marlins	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?	Yes	$5	1.5¢	Lost
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5	Over	$3	1.4¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$133	80.5¢	Won
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?	Yes	$28	16.0¢	Lost
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?	Yes	$13	64.0¢	Won
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?	Yes	$22	33.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	$19	0.9¢	Lost
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5	Over	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	Yes	$35	81.0¢	Won
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	Yes	$106	52.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	$30	2.9¢	Lost
Will Movement of Society for Peace (MSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	Yes	$5	3.7¢	Lost
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	Yes	$8	4.0¢	Lost
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	$8	53.0¢	Lost
Will Victoria Doyle be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?	Yes	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	Yes	$3	1.5¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$7	1.9¢	Lost
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$54	84.5¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$3	59.0¢	Won
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?	Yes	$2	5.7¢	Lost

Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?Won
No$613 @ 74.5¢
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Austria?Won
Yes$14 @ 11.0¢
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Exact Score: Any Other Score?Lost
Yes$14 @ 6.6¢
Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026?Won
No$64 @ 88.4¢
Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 6.1¢
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 England?Lost
Yes$26 @ 0.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$30 @ 0.9¢
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$40 @ 80.2¢
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Croatia?Lost
Yes$38 @ 7.0¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$367 @ 8.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4 @ 41.8¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$177 @ 40.1¢
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.5¢
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$71 @ 83.6¢
Will Alisson Becker win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.0¢
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?Lost
No$15 @ 13.0¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Lost
No$13 @ 43.0¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Won
Yes$6 @ 69.0¢
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?Won
Yes$3 @ 1.4¢
Spread: South Africa (-2.5)Lost
South Africa$3 @ 1.3¢
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
No$80 @ 25.7¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$1.8k @ 86.0¢
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$31 @ 2.3¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$3.5k @ 82.7¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$48 @ 9.3¢
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?Won
Yes$64 @ 87.6¢
Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsLost
Miami Marlins$1 @ 0.5¢
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.5¢
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5Lost
Over$3 @ 1.4¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$133 @ 80.5¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?Lost
Yes$28 @ 16.0¢
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?Lost
No$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?Won
Yes$13 @ 64.0¢
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?Lost
Yes$22 @ 33.0¢
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Morocco?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.9¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5Lost
Over$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Won
Yes$35 @ 81.0¢
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Won
Yes$106 @ 52.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?Lost
Yes$30 @ 2.9¢
Will Movement of Society for Peace (MSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.7¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.0¢
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Lost
No$8 @ 53.0¢
Will Victoria Doyle be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.5¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.9¢
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$54 @ 84.5¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$3 @ 59.0¢
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$838	53.0¢
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$649	67.3¢
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$434	39.3¢
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$224	56.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$216	61.7¢
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Crypto	No	$203	40.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?	Other	No	$181	84.0¢
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$145	47.8¢
Valantis FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$113	61.9¢
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$111	42.9¢
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$109	76.9¢
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$105	89.1¢
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$93	36.7¢
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$90	45.2¢
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$85	42.5¢
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$79	54.4¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$75	72.7¢
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$72	68.0¢
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$66	53.0¢
APYX FDV above $80M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$60	89.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$54	64.0¢
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$52	64.9¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$52	50.0¢
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$51	41.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$51	8.1¢
Will the Republican Party win the GA-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$48	79.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$44	68.0¢
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$43	24.9¢
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$41	55.0¢
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$40	85.0¢

Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?Crypto
No$838 @ 53.0¢
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
No$649 @ 67.3¢
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
No$434 @ 39.3¢
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?Crypto
No$224 @ 56.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$216 @ 61.7¢
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?Crypto
No$203 @ 40.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?Other
No$181 @ 84.0¢
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$145 @ 47.8¢
Valantis FDV above $200M one day after launch?Crypto
No$113 @ 61.9¢
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?Crypto
No$111 @ 42.9¢
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?Crypto
No$109 @ 76.9¢
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$105 @ 89.1¢
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$93 @ 36.7¢
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?Crypto
No$90 @ 45.2¢
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$85 @ 42.5¢
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$79 @ 54.4¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$75 @ 72.7¢
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$72 @ 68.0¢
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
Yes$66 @ 53.0¢
APYX FDV above $80M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$60 @ 89.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?Politics
Yes$54 @ 64.0¢
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$52 @ 64.9¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
No$52 @ 50.0¢
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
Yes$51 @ 41.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
Yes$51 @ 8.1¢
Will the Republican Party win the GA-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$48 @ 79.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$44 @ 68.0¢
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$43 @ 24.9¢
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$41 @ 55.0¢
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$40 @ 85.0¢