0xe234…304a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe234959595e01dacd391a9502a6ad0edf4e3304a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.7pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

49% @ 39.3¢

Brier

0.095

Resolved

3545

Avg size

$352

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	34% (24/71)	+16%	71
Other	29% (17/58)	+29%	58
Geopolitics	36% (16/44)	+9%	44
Tech	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Economy	50% (1/2)	-73%	2
Culture	50% (1/2)	-75%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics71 bets
Hit rate
34% (24/71)
ROI
+16%
Other58 bets
Hit rate
29% (17/58)
ROI
+29%
Geopolitics44 bets
Hit rate
36% (16/44)
ROI
+9%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-73%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-75%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 59/183

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$1.1k	57.9¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$902	38.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$5	77.6¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$402	7.8¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by July 31?	Yes	$260	5.2¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$203	84.0¢	Won
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$156	5.2¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$269	2.6¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$6.0k	6.9¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$119	0.8¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$317	31.7¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	$2.4k	28.8¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$2.6k	87.8¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$6	60.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$160	28.4¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$2.1k	24.6¢	Lost
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	$38	5.1¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$4.5k	65.6¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$285	0.6¢	Lost
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$346	16.8¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$27.8k	79.3¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$346	1.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$16	1.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$8.3k	75.2¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$58	1.5¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$1.2k	5.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$378	5.7¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$6.5k	82.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	No	$1.4k	5.9¢	Lost
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	$803	79.5¢	Won
Giants vs. Rams	Giants	$177	5.9¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	$54	9.0¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	$220	54.6¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$11.3k	74.1¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$861	9.1¢	Lost
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$455	22.8¢	Lost
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$185	14.4¢	Lost
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$1.6k	12.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$2.8k	79.4¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$298	13.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$153	0.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$13.5k	34.4¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by August 31?	Yes	$471	6.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$2.3k	66.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.2k	8.2¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	$736	6.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$2.6k	1.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$4.0k	27.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$11.6k	76.9¢	Won
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	$525	51.5¢	Lost

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$1.1k @ 57.9¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$902 @ 38.6¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$5 @ 77.6¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$402 @ 7.8¢
Iran leadership change by July 31?Lost
Yes$260 @ 5.2¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$203 @ 84.0¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$156 @ 5.2¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$269 @ 2.6¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$6.0k @ 6.9¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$119 @ 0.8¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$317 @ 31.7¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
No$2.4k @ 28.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 87.8¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$6 @ 60.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$160 @ 28.4¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 24.6¢
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$38 @ 5.1¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$4.5k @ 65.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$285 @ 0.6¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Lost
No$346 @ 16.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$27.8k @ 79.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$346 @ 1.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$16 @ 1.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$8.3k @ 75.2¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Lost
No$58 @ 1.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 5.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
No$378 @ 5.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$6.5k @ 82.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Lost
No$1.4k @ 5.9¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Won
No$803 @ 79.5¢
Giants vs. RamsLost
Giants$177 @ 5.9¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?Lost
No$54 @ 9.0¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?Won
Yes$220 @ 54.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$11.3k @ 74.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$861 @ 9.1¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Lost
Yes$455 @ 22.8¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$185 @ 14.4¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$1.6k @ 12.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$2.8k @ 79.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$298 @ 13.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$153 @ 0.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$13.5k @ 34.4¢
Iran leadership change by August 31?Lost
Yes$471 @ 6.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$2.3k @ 66.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 8.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
No$736 @ 6.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 1.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$4.0k @ 27.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$11.6k @ 76.9¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?Lost
Yes$525 @ 51.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$21.0k	51.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$20.2k	50.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$11.6k	48.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Politics	No	$8.7k	96.4¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$7.1k	70.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$7.0k	65.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6.3k	12.7¢
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	Geopolitics	No	$5.9k	95.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.6k	28.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.1k	71.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5.0k	24.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$4.0k	57.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3.8k	15.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3.6k	74.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.6k	47.2¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$3.6k	58.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.0k	86.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	47.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.7k	92.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	No	$2.7k	55.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	15.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	18.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$2.5k	87.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	29.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$2.4k	84.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.3k	92.5¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.2k	28.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.1k	21.0¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	60.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	46.5¢

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$21.0k @ 51.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$20.2k @ 50.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$11.6k @ 48.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Politics
No$8.7k @ 96.4¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$7.1k @ 70.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$7.0k @ 65.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$6.3k @ 12.7¢
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?Geopolitics
No$5.9k @ 95.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5.6k @ 28.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5.1k @ 71.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$5.0k @ 24.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$4.0k @ 57.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$3.8k @ 15.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$3.6k @ 74.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$3.6k @ 47.2¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$3.6k @ 58.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3.0k @ 86.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 47.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.7k @ 92.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
No$2.7k @ 55.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 15.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 18.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$2.5k @ 87.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 29.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$2.4k @ 84.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?Politics
No$2.3k @ 92.5¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$2.2k @ 28.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$2.1k @ 21.0¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 60.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 46.5¢