0xe1e2…9629

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe1e24a2ae12c8af2f41ac91fea3928423e039629
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.5pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

43% @ 38.3¢

Brier

0.149

Resolved

584

Avg size

$51

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (86/223)	+20%	223
Politics	42% (8/19)	-3%	19
Sports	44% (7/16)	+7%	16
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-21%	3

Other223 bets
Hit rate
39% (86/223)
ROI
+20%
Politics19 bets
Hit rate
42% (8/19)
ROI
-3%
Sports16 bets
Hit rate
44% (7/16)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-21%

Track record

39% hit · 102/261

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will United Russia (ER) win 60% or more of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$50	9.6¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) win 45-50% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$65	10.7¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) win 50-55% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$75	43.2¢	Lost
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?	No	$100	27.2¢	Lost
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?	No	$661	5.4¢	Lost
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?	Yes	$10	35.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$85	54.0¢	Won
Epstein client list released in 2025?	No	$100	86.0¢	Won
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$18	0.8¢	Lost
US inflation >0.1% from April to May 2024?	Yes	$25	50.6¢	Lost
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	No	$54	20.9¢	Lost
Postecoglou out as Tottenham Manager?	Yes	$10	3.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Yes	$5	6.5¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?	Putin	$4	2.5¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?	No	$15	49.9¢	Lost
Will Wolverhampton be relegated?	No	$38	75.0¢	Won
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Ciryl Gane	$51	51.0¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$308	77.4¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	No	$27	62.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	$35	51.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$20	50.2¢	Lost
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$48	48.0¢	Won
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?	No	$40	39.0¢	Lost
Will the match be a draw?	Yes	$20	66.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$25	44.0¢	Lost
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$25	35.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$50	74.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	Yes	$10	9.0¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Iran military response by Monday?	Yes	$10	19.0¢	Lost
Liberal Democrats win the second most seats in next UK election?	No	$15	75.0¢	Won
Liberal Democrats win the second most seats in next UK election?	Yes	$145	20.8¢	Lost
Will Timmy Burch make a trade during South Park's prediction market episode?	No	$25	58.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by June 12?	No	$25	12.9¢	Won
Will "Kaczynski" be in the manifesto?	No	$280	89.3¢	Won
Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?	No	$5	68.0¢	Lost
$GME halted on Friday?	No	$20	41.0¢	Won
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?	No	$50	44.0¢	Won
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise	Dembele	$10	44.0¢	Won
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	No	$864	86.0¢	Won
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Yes	$150	64.2¢	Lost
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?	No	$7	3.6¢	Lost
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Yes	$24	9.4¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$62	26.7¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	67.8¢	Won
Rishi Sunak out by May 31?	Yes	$2	1.2¢	Lost
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$10	31.0¢	Lost
Will Aston Villa win the 2024-25 FA Cup?	Yes	$44	14.3¢	Lost
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30?	Yes	$5	14.0¢	Lost
Will Jake Paul fight KSI next?	Yes	$19	3.2¢	Lost

Will United Russia (ER) win 60% or more of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$50 @ 9.6¢
Will United Russia (ER) win 45-50% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$65 @ 10.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) win 50-55% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$75 @ 43.2¢
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?Lost
No$100 @ 27.2¢
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?Lost
No$661 @ 5.4¢
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?Lost
Yes$10 @ 35.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$85 @ 54.0¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Won
No$100 @ 86.0¢
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$18 @ 0.8¢
US inflation >0.1% from April to May 2024?Lost
Yes$25 @ 50.6¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Lost
No$54 @ 20.9¢
Postecoglou out as Tottenham Manager?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.5¢
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?Lost
Putin$4 @ 2.5¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?Lost
No$15 @ 49.9¢
Will Wolverhampton be relegated?Won
No$38 @ 75.0¢
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Won
Ciryl Gane$51 @ 51.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$308 @ 77.4¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
No$27 @ 62.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
Yes$35 @ 51.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$20 @ 50.2¢
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$48 @ 48.0¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Lost
No$40 @ 39.0¢
Will the match be a draw?Lost
Yes$20 @ 66.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$25 @ 44.0¢
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$25 @ 35.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 74.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 0.2¢
Iran military response by Monday?Lost
Yes$10 @ 19.0¢
Liberal Democrats win the second most seats in next UK election? Won
No$15 @ 75.0¢
Liberal Democrats win the second most seats in next UK election? Lost
Yes$145 @ 20.8¢
Will Timmy Burch make a trade during South Park's prediction market episode?Won
No$25 @ 58.0¢
Fed rate cut by June 12?Won
No$25 @ 12.9¢
Will "Kaczynski" be in the manifesto?Won
No$280 @ 89.3¢
Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Lost
No$5 @ 68.0¢
$GME halted on Friday?Won
No$20 @ 41.0¢
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?Won
No$50 @ 44.0¢
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. OliseWon
Dembele$10 @ 44.0¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Won
No$864 @ 86.0¢
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Lost
Yes$150 @ 64.2¢
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?Lost
No$7 @ 3.6¢
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?Lost
Yes$24 @ 9.4¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$62 @ 26.7¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 67.8¢
Rishi Sunak out by May 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 31.0¢
Will Aston Villa win the 2024-25 FA Cup?Lost
Yes$44 @ 14.3¢
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
Will Jake Paul fight KSI next?Lost
Yes$19 @ 3.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?	Politics	No	$6.7k	93.5¢
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$5.5k	83.3¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	93.5¢
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	Politics	No	$778	96.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$575	95.8¢
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$551	90.8¢
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	Politics	No	$482	92.8¢
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	No	$450	90.0¢
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	Sports	No	$392	98.0¢
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?	Sports	No	$300	93.0¢
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Sports	No	$194	90.0¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$163	83.0¢
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$153	90.5¢
Will Aston Villa be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League?	Sports	No	$139	92.2¢
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Jun 30?	Politics	Yes	$105	36.0¢
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by October 31, 2026?	Sports	No	$99	91.2¢
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?	Sports	No	$77	76.9¢
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$64	91.0¢
Will Rayan Cherki (Man City) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Sports	No	$60	74.6¢
Will Anthony Gordon (Barcelona) record the most assists in the 2026-27 La Liga season?	Sports	No	$44	73.8¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$41	82.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Politics	No	$35	59.0¢
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?	Sports	Yes	$27	28.0¢
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$20	94.0¢
Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$15	2.7¢
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?	Sports	Yes	$10	49.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	18.0¢
Jonathan Bailey announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$8	94.2¢
Will Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Sports	Yes	$4	20.0¢
Tom Blyth announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$4	0.5¢

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?Politics
No$6.7k @ 93.5¢
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$5.5k @ 83.3¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 93.5¢
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?Politics
No$778 @ 96.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$575 @ 95.8¢
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$551 @ 90.8¢
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Politics
No$482 @ 92.8¢
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
No$450 @ 90.0¢
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?Sports
No$392 @ 98.0¢
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?Sports
No$300 @ 93.0¢
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?Sports
No$194 @ 90.0¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$163 @ 83.0¢
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$153 @ 90.5¢
Will Aston Villa be runner-up in the 2026-27 Premier League?Sports
No$139 @ 92.2¢
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Jun 30?Politics
Yes$105 @ 36.0¢
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by October 31, 2026?Sports
No$99 @ 91.2¢
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?Sports
No$77 @ 76.9¢
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$64 @ 91.0¢
Will Rayan Cherki (Man City) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?Sports
No$60 @ 74.6¢
Will Anthony Gordon (Barcelona) record the most assists in the 2026-27 La Liga season?Sports
No$44 @ 73.8¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Geopolitics
No$41 @ 82.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Politics
No$35 @ 59.0¢
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?Sports
Yes$27 @ 28.0¢
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 94.0¢
Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$15 @ 2.7¢
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?Sports
Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 18.0¢
Jonathan Bailey announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$8 @ 94.2¢
Will Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?Sports
Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
Tom Blyth announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$4 @ 0.5¢