0xe0f1…c4bd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe0f1e7751df4035f78a5eb2f4296c98b4d5bc4bd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.0pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

55% @ 52.6¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

3039

Avg size

$89

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (186/328)	-3%	328
Politics	66% (60/91)	+26%	91
Geopolitics	70% (23/33)	+4%	33
Tech	50% (4/8)	+25%	8
Economy	40% (2/5)	-44%	5
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+65%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+22%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+113%	1

Other328 bets
Hit rate
57% (186/328)
ROI
-3%
Politics91 bets
Hit rate
66% (60/91)
ROI
+26%
Geopolitics33 bets
Hit rate
70% (23/33)
ROI
+4%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+25%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-44%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+65%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+113%

Track record

59% hit · 279/469

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	No	$11	2.1¢	Lost
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million and $3.0 million by December 16?	Yes	$53	17.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$2.6k	77.9¢	Won
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%?	No	$203	78.3¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	$72	36.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$630	78.7¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$280	28.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$832	67.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$24	24.0¢	Won
Will Powell say "Labor" 25+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?	Yes	$185	46.3¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?	No	$20	40.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	7.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$2.3k	83.8¢	Won
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $3.25 million and $3.5 million by December 16?	No	$67	79.3¢	Won
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $3.25 million and $3.5 million by December 16?	Yes	$24	16.9¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$667	21.9¢	Lost
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?	Yes	$113	23.7¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$262	81.0¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	$3	61.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$354	27.2¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$11	28.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$311	13.0¢	Lost
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?	No	$168	43.6¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	$123	41.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	$2.3k	55.2¢	Lost
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?	No	$252	84.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	$5.0k	81.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?	Yes	$151	38.8¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$207	69.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	No	$298	49.7¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	$237	54.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	No	$491	41.9¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	$162	81.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	No	$504	83.4¢	Won
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?	No	$388	73.9¢	Won
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31?	No	$1.1k	83.5¢	Won
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by October 31?	No	$620	77.2¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?	Yes	$47	36.2¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	55.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?	No	$696	42.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	$188	62.7¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$55	55.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	No	$206	36.3¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$328	82.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	$525	87.5¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$5	11.6¢	Lost
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?	No	$172	84.0¢	Won
Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?	Yes	$453	10.3¢	Lost
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	No	$3.0k	76.0¢	Won

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Lost
No$11 @ 2.1¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million and $3.0 million by December 16?Lost
Yes$53 @ 17.0¢
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$2.6k @ 77.9¢
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%?Won
No$203 @ 78.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Won
No$72 @ 36.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$630 @ 78.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$280 @ 28.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$832 @ 67.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$24 @ 24.0¢
Will Powell say "Labor" 25+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?Lost
Yes$185 @ 46.3¢
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 40.0¢
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 83.8¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $3.25 million and $3.5 million by December 16?Won
No$67 @ 79.3¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $3.25 million and $3.5 million by December 16?Lost
Yes$24 @ 16.9¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$667 @ 21.9¢
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?Lost
Yes$113 @ 23.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$262 @ 81.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Lost
No$3 @ 61.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$354 @ 27.2¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$11 @ 28.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$311 @ 13.0¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?Won
No$168 @ 43.6¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Won
No$123 @ 41.0¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 55.2¢
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?Lost
No$252 @ 84.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Won
No$5.0k @ 81.1¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?Lost
Yes$151 @ 38.8¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$207 @ 69.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Won
No$298 @ 49.7¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
Yes$237 @ 54.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Won
No$491 @ 41.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Won
No$162 @ 81.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Won
No$504 @ 83.4¢
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?Won
No$388 @ 73.9¢
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31?Won
No$1.1k @ 83.5¢
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by October 31?Won
No$620 @ 77.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?Lost
Yes$47 @ 36.2¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.5k @ 55.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?Won
No$696 @ 42.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?Won
No$188 @ 62.7¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$55 @ 55.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Lost
No$206 @ 36.3¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$328 @ 82.0¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Won
No$525 @ 87.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.6¢
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?Won
No$172 @ 84.0¢
Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$453 @ 10.3¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?Won
No$3.0k @ 76.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$7.4k	80.1¢
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$6.9k	74.4¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$6.4k	84.0¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$5.8k	67.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.0k	86.7¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$3.3k	69.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$3.1k	82.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2.4k	84.4¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.6k	95.6¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Economy	No	$1.2k	81.1¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.1k	77.8¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$750	70.1¢
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$714	83.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$638	87.8¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$603	71.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$580	58.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$538	60.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$495	82.5¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$477	68.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$374	62.3¢
Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?	Politics	Yes	$346	80.7¢
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$299	41.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$286	26.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$270	73.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$263	52.9¢
Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$257	93.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$252	7.4¢
Blue wave in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$249	83.0¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$246	82.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	Economy	No	$238	90.1¢

Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$7.4k @ 80.1¢
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$6.9k @ 74.4¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$6.4k @ 84.0¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$5.8k @ 67.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
No$4.0k @ 86.7¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$3.3k @ 69.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$3.1k @ 82.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$2.4k @ 84.4¢
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.6k @ 95.6¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?Economy
No$1.2k @ 81.1¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.1k @ 77.8¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?Other
No$750 @ 70.1¢
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$714 @ 83.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Politics
Yes$638 @ 87.8¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$603 @ 71.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$580 @ 58.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$538 @ 60.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$495 @ 82.5¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
No$477 @ 68.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$374 @ 62.3¢
Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?Politics
Yes$346 @ 80.7¢
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?Geopolitics
No$299 @ 41.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$286 @ 26.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$270 @ 73.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$263 @ 52.9¢
Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$257 @ 93.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$252 @ 7.4¢
Blue wave in 2026?Politics
Yes$249 @ 83.0¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?Tech
Yes$246 @ 82.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Economy
No$238 @ 90.1¢