0xe0dc…3944

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other579 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (339/579)

  ROI

  +7%

• Politics80 bets

  Hit rate

  76% (61/80)

  ROI

  +3%

• Tech32 bets

  Hit rate

  91% (29/32)

  ROI

  +18%

• Science14 bets

  Hit rate

  93% (13/14)

  ROI

  +14%

• Geopolitics12 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (9/12)

  ROI

  +27%

• Sports6 bets

  Hit rate

  83% (5/6)

  ROI

  -35%

• Business3 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (3/3)

  ROI

  +7%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +12%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +22%

• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Kim Jong Un by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$180 @ 78.7¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$46 @ 77.0¢
• Will Trump praise Allah again by October 31?Won
  No$155 @ 83.5¢
• Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Won
  No$25 @ 98.3¢
• Mistral announces a training pause by October 31?Won
  No$77 @ 94.8¢
• Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Won
  No$65 @ 78.7¢
• Baidu announces a training pause by October 31?Won
  No$39 @ 96.0¢
• Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?Won
  No$98 @ 96.0¢
• Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31?Won
  No$0 @ 0.0¢
• DeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31?Won
  No$68 @ 97.9¢
• US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Won
  No$67 @ 64.0¢
• SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Won
  No$10 @ 91.0¢
• Meituan matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Won
  No$160 @ 97.5¢
• Meituan announces a training pause by October 31?Won
  No$47 @ 97.9¢
• DeepSeek matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Won
  No$92 @ 79.0¢
• Moonshot matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Won
  No$37 @ 74.7¢
• Amazon announces a training pause by October 31?Won
  No$5 @ 99.0¢
• ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?Won
  No$151 @ 95.0¢
• Z.ai announces a training pause by October 31?Won
  No$47 @ 97.9¢
• Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Won
  No$66 @ 83.0¢
• Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$28 @ 93.0¢
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
• Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?Lost
  No$0 @ 0.9¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?Lost
  No$31 @ 50.0¢
• Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?Lost
  No$23 @ 91.6¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$61 @ 74.0¢
• Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Nova?Won
  No$37 @ 90.0¢
• Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Won
  No$128 @ 98.0¢
• Will Trump praise Jon Rahm in September?Won
  No$30 @ 94.0¢
• Will Trump praise Bryson DeChambeau in September?Won
  No$21 @ 97.9¢
• Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu in September?Won
  No$19 @ 90.0¢
• Will Trump praise Javier Milei in September?Won
  No$20 @ 98.0¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?Won
  No$44 @ 91.6¢
• LAPTOP listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE?Lost
  Yes$61 @ 49.0¢
• LAPTOP listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 12.0¢
• Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Won
  No$399 @ 99.7¢
• Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 99.2¢
• Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?Won
  No$315 @ 99.6¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: SeptemberWon
  Nothing$49 @ 98.7¢
• Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
  No$105 @ 99.7¢
• Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
  No$121 @ 99.2¢
• Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
  No$129 @ 97.8¢
• Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
  No$1.9k @ 99.2¢
• Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?Won
  Yes$44 @ 88.0¢
• Will Trump say “Marjorie Traitor Greene” by February 28?Lost
  No$36 @ 65.0¢
• Will Trump talk to María Corina Machado in January?Won
  Yes$445 @ 82.4¢
• Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?Lost
  No$17 @ 85.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
  No$135 @ 73.0¢
• Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?Lost
  Yes$32 @ 32.0¢
• Trump x Xi talk before July?Won
  Yes$262 @ 49.0¢

Current positions

• Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
  No$1.9k @ 88.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Gianni Infantino by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.6k @ 75.6¢
• Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Meta by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$1.4k @ 92.5¢
• Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
  No$1.2k @ 97.5¢
• Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
  No$1.2k @ 92.5¢
• Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Anthropic by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$1.1k @ 91.7¢
• Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
  No$462 @ 96.7¢
• Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
  No$418 @ 74.5¢
• Anthropic announces a full training pause in 2026?Tech
  No$414 @ 89.6¢
• Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?Economy
  No$360 @ 45.7¢
• Mary Peltola charged by January 31?Politics
  No$356 @ 90.0¢
• Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?Other
  No$343 @ 94.0¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $270B by October 31?Other
  No$297 @ 99.0¢
• Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
  No$211 @ 94.0¢
• Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026? Politics
  No$162 @ 90.1¢
• Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by October 31?Other
  No$156 @ 99.0¢
• Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?Economy
  No$139 @ 82.8¢
• Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.725T by October 31?Other
  No$130 @ 99.9¢
• Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?Other
  No$127 @ 97.7¢
• Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
  No$127 @ 94.2¢
• Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?Tech
  No$117 @ 86.0¢
• Will Anthropic list on another exchange?Tech
  No$117 @ 96.9¢
• Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Geopolitics
  No$99 @ 65.0¢
• NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?Economy
  Yes$95 @ 19.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$90 @ 80.0¢
• Dan J. Sullivan charged by January 31?Politics
  No$83 @ 90.4¢
• Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?Science
  Yes$72 @ 98.0¢
• Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?Politics
  No$68 @ 39.6¢
• Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $257.5B by October 31?Other
  No$61 @ 98.6¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$57 @ 79.8¢