0xdfb6…6f86

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xdfb6738a47247d1808a2384bae2458cd09306f86
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+10.1pp

ROI

+48%

Win rate

50% @ 39.5¢

Brier

0.246

Resolved

260

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	52% (15/29)	+177%	29
Politics	44% (11/25)	+83%	25
Other	32% (8/25)	-3%	25
Geopolitics	60% (3/5)	+12%	5
Tech	0% (0/3)	-100%	3

Sports29 bets
Hit rate
52% (15/29)
ROI
+177%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
44% (11/25)
ROI
+83%
Other25 bets
Hit rate
32% (8/25)
ROI
-3%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+12%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 37/87

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$5	34.0¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$15	65.2¢	Won
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.9¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$6	14.3¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$7	19.5¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$4	26.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$25	70.3¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$8	25.3¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$6	70.4¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$3	13.6¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	$14	62.9¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Natus Vincere	$3	47.9¢	Won
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BetBoom Team	$2	44.0¢	Won
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$3	36.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$6	62.9¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	Natus Vincere	$4	42.7¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$1	18.8¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	$21	49.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$13	57.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$12	77.8¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$4	78.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$16	59.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?	No	$1	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$12	21.0¢	Won
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	$6	56.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	$18	15.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	No	$13	9.2¢	Won
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$1	84.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$46	43.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	No	$12	57.5¢	Lost
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	LGD Gaming	$5	24.0¢	Lost
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner	Galions	$6	70.4¢	Won
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	No	$1	75.0¢	Won
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	Gen.G	$3	69.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$50	47.3¢	Won
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	Over	$9	44.3¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$9	21.7¢	Lost
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$6	68.3¢	Won
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	$10	38.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$18	31.4¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$23	70.8¢	Won
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?	Yes	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	No	$5	8.2¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	$40	24.2¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$6	71.4¢	Lost
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	No	$6	43.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$10	64.0¢	Won
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner	HANJIN BRION	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	$14	69.5¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	No	$10	32.7¢	Lost

Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$5 @ 34.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$15 @ 65.2¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 14.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 19.5¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 26.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$25 @ 70.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$8 @ 25.3¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$6 @ 70.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.6¢
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 62.9¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
Natus Vincere$3 @ 47.9¢
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Won
BetBoom Team$2 @ 44.0¢
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 36.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$6 @ 62.9¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 WinnerLost
Natus Vincere$4 @ 42.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 18.8¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$21 @ 49.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$13 @ 57.5¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 77.8¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$4 @ 78.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$16 @ 59.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$1 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 21.0¢
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Won
Yes$6 @ 56.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Lost
Yes$18 @ 15.0¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Won
No$13 @ 9.2¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 84.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$46 @ 43.0¢
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 57.5¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsLost
LGD Gaming$5 @ 24.0¢
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 WinnerWon
Galions$6 @ 70.4¢
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?Won
No$1 @ 75.0¢
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 WinnerWon
Gen.G$3 @ 69.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$50 @ 47.3¢
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5Won
Over$9 @ 44.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 21.7¢
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$6 @ 68.3¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Lost
No$10 @ 38.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$18 @ 31.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$23 @ 70.8¢
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$5 @ 8.2¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Won
Yes$40 @ 24.2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$6 @ 71.4¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Won
No$6 @ 43.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
No$10 @ 64.0¢
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 WinnerLost
HANJIN BRION$1 @ 3.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 69.5¢
Will England win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$10 @ 32.7¢

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Valorant: TYLOO vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs	—	TYLOO	$2	62.0¢

Valorant: TYLOO vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs—
TYLOO$2 @ 62.0¢